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2.0a Current Energy Events and Status. Commodity Markets 1/12/06 1/7/2007 ~1/20/09?

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2.0a Current Energy Events and Status

Commodity Markets 1/12/06 1/7/2007 ~1/20/09?

NYMEX Crude Oil Futures $64.55/bbl $56.17 $37Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures $9.26/mmBtu $6.18 $5.4NYMEX Heating Oil Future c/gal 156.53¢ 145¢NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures 175.93 ¢/gallon 170.00¢ 108¢ Local Melbourne FL Hess gasoline $2.32/gallon $2.33 $1.819Palo Verde On-Peak Spot Electricity $58.28/MWh $48.43 $40

Frank R. Leslie,

B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE

1/20/2009, Rev. 1.9

fleslie; (321) 674-7377; Link Bldg. Rm. 104


president obama takes command
President Obama takes Command!
  • At noon today, President Obama became the 44th President of the United States
  • He will be a strong leader in the energy arena
    • Favors renewable energy and will press for $150 billion over 10 years: double alternatives in three yrs
    • More GHG regulation through EPA, etc.
    • Wants 5 million “Green Collar” jobs
    • Wants 10% RE by 2015; 25% by 2050 (?)
    • Secretary Chu (Energy) wants biofuel developed
    • 75% of Federal buildings made energy efficient
    • Many policies somewhat TBD


president obama s cabinet
President Obama’s Cabinet
  • Sec’y of Agriculture: Thomas J. Vilsack favors biofuels (was Gov. of Iowa --- corn state)
  • Sec’y of Energy: Dr. Steven Chu heads national energy labs like Nat’l Renewable Energy Lab
  • Sec’y of Housing and Urban Development: Shaun Donovan: weatherization, LIHEAP
  • Sec’y of Interior: Ken Salazar: resources on public lands
  • Sec’y of Transportation: Ray LaHood: trains, roads, aircraft
  • Sec’y of Treasure: Timothy Geithner: taxes and enforcement
  • Sec’y of Defense: Robert Gates: Remote power, “One Fuel”, aircraft fuel
  • Sec’y of Commerce: TBA
  • Attorney General: Eric Holder: legal aspects
  • Administrator, EPA: Lisa Jackson: GHG, pollution, etc.


selected energy headlines of 2008
Selected Energy Headlines of 2008

Toyota Highlander

  • 2008 Jan: Oil ranges from mid-$90s to $97 and for 1/20/09, $37 – is all well with “cheap oil”?
  • $147 crude oil peak in October 08 falling to $39, now $38 on 1/12/09
    • No need for renewables anymore?
  • “U.S. lawmakers unveiled a raft of energy-related bills in the early hours of the 110th Congress aimed at boosting fuel ethanol use, extracting liquid fuels from coal and tightening automobile fuel efficiency rules. “ [Reuters]
  • For some current prices, see
  • Bush will allow offshore drilling on continental shelf
  • Senator Obama becomes President-Elect
    • Favors renewables, conservation & efficiency; perhaps nuclear


ocs drilling will help us
OCS Drilling Will Help US?

Dr. Kyriacos Zygourakis is a professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University.

2a 1 overview of energy issues
2a.1 Overview of Energy Issues
  • Energy decisions are influenced by supply and demand, politics, public interest or protests, availability, fuel source commodity changes, and economics
  • Ten-year construction time of a utility plant requires a reasonably stable market to justify construction loans
  • Uncertainty of the energy commodity markets can destabilize the perception of future energy needs
  • Proposed energy plants are usually met with opposition from potential neighbors (NIMBYs) or distant NGOs (nongovernmental organizations)
    • What’s a “CAVE”? (;-)


2a 2 1 recent energy related events
2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events

(within ~1 year)

  • Still . . . : Pres. G.W. Bush wanted to drill for oil in Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR); environmentalists fighting potential pollution; estimates are that oil could satisfy US needs for six months to twelve years in only 10 years depending upon who estimates; could be held in reserve as part of SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), opened Bristol Bay, Alaska for drilling 1/10/07
  • Cape Wind still striving for first plant of Nantucket against much opposition;
  • $20B invested in renewable energy vs. $150B in all global power – Erin Martinot


2a 2 1 recent energy related events 2
2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events, 2

(within ~1 year)

  • The massive stimulus “bailout” bill entered US House debate 1/15/09
    • $20 billion in renewable energy tax cuts
    • $32 billion to improve energy transmission and encourage the development of battery-powered vehicles
    • Senate Democrats will try to block and introduce their own version
  • OPEC forecasts decline in crude oil demand by 180,000 bbls/day! Prices would fall


2a 2 1 recent energy related events 3
2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events, 3
  • The “Big Three” auto makers made most profit selling large cars and SUVs
    • Public interest changed to small, fuel-efficient vehicles with less profit, threatening the companies with bankruptcy unless taxpayers bailed them out
  • GM Chevy “Volt” ads are running on TV
    • Battery electric car, not a hybrid yet
    • Range of about 40 miles only meets needs of 93% of driving public


2a 2 2a the us energy policy
2a.2.2a The US Energy Policy
  • The US Energy Policy of May 2001 set the structure for future energy approaches; updated by Energy Policy Acts of 2005 & 2006, 2007, 2008 See Title 10 of the C.F.R.
  • The Clean Coal Program is being researched to develop very low emissions after costly stack gas cleaning
  • Renewables now comprise a small part (~ 4%) of US energy sources, even including large hydro
    • Hydro is indirect solar power and is renewable
    • Emphasized because some enviros say it’s not renewable
  • Advanced nuclear or coal plants could supply H2 for “Hydrogen Economy” as an alternate to natural gas (NG) (depleting); 97% H2 comes from NG
  • Some clamor that nuclear is “renewable”
  • Pres. Bush says, “America is addicted to oil”


2a 2 2b the us energy policy act of 2007
2a.2.2b The US Energy Policy Act of 2007
  • Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards increased from 25 mpg to 35 mpg for cars and light trucks by 2020
  • Renewable electricity standard (RES) that would require 15% of utility power from renewables was removed from the bill by Democrats to prevent certain defeat
    • Some states would have to buy Renewable Energy Certificates if they didn’t reach the 15%
    • RE is easy for states of Texas, Washington, and Oregon, perhaps impossible for Florida
  • DOE directed to provide $20.5B for nuclear reactors & fuel plus $10B for RE and $8B for clean coal [Florida Today, 12/18/07
  • Lamp bulbs must be 70% more efficient by 2020 [Paul Davidson, USA Today, 2007]


2a 2 2c the us energy policy act of 2008
2a.2.2c The US Energy Policy Act of 2008
  • Speaker Pelosi withdrew new CAFÉ standard from bill to prevent a filibuster; wanted 50 mpg(?)
  • Solar tax credits extended for 10 years


2a 2 2d arctic nat l wildlife refuge anwr
2a.2.2d Arctic Nat’l Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)
  • ANWR has a contentious past
      • Potential oil and gas reserves of ~1 year 10 years from now
      • “Equivalent to 30 years of Saudi Arabia imports”
    • $10.4B reserves located in Northeastern Alaska
      • Coastal plain with some towns; no trees
    • Drilling might interfere with wildlife migration
      • Environmentalists fighting to preserve area for caribou
  • Removed from 2005 Energy Policy Act to avoid blocking passage
  • Added to Defense Dep’t. Budget Bill
    • House passed, but Senate couldn’t get votes to overcome Democratic filibuster 12/21/2005; withdrawn for possible later action


2a2 2 e obama energy policy
2a2.2.e Obama Energy Policy
  • Create “New Energy” economy
  • Millions of jobs in wind turbines, solar, modernizing electrical grid, sustainable energy , innovative solutions, independence from fossil fuels
  • Global Climate Changes --- international agreements
  • New Energy Team --- Energy Secretary, Dr. Stephen Chu, nuclear physicist, led Berkeley National Labs, became interested in climate change and energy
  • Lisa Jackson, EPA Admin. Ari pollution, protect environment; Nancy Sutley, Chair WH Council on Enviro Quality, sustainable path and future; Carol Browner, “Energy Czar”, Energy & Climate


2a2 2 e obama energy policy1
2a2.2.e Obama Energy Policy
  • Obama’s pick for Secretary of Interior Sen. Ken Salizar (D-CO) is under evaluation by the US Senate
    • Noon 1/15: “President-elect Barack Obama's pick to lead the Interior Department promised to help wean the country off foreign oil by expanding renewable energy on public lands and promoting the "wise use" of traditional energy sources. “ Associated Press
    • He wants to balance RE with coal, oil, and gas
    • DOI has Bureau of Public Lands where many resources are extracted


2a2 2 e obama energy policy 2
2a2.2.e Obama Energy Policy, 2
  • Develop job transition to clean energy technology Reeducate auto workers (?) to do green energy
  • Double RE funding (still not much)
  • Change from fossil fuels to renewables such as wind, solar, etc.
  • Use nuclear with other as a transition; develop “clean” coal & coal to liquids
    • Air Force flew plane on 50% biofuel to Iraq
  • Emphasis on energy conservation and efficiency


2a 2 3 1 us misc details
2a.2.3.1 US --- Misc. Details
  • FPL merging with Constellation to be Constellation Energy?
    • “Never mind”; cancelled
  • Duke merged with Cinergy for $8.5B
  • Exelon merged with New Jersey's Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. for $16 billion
  • New York State Renewable Portfolio Standard mandates 25% RE by 2013; 19% now large hydro; to be wind, hydro, biomass
  • Mild winter weather lowers fuel oil demand and heating oil future price
  • Seven governors in NE form Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) to cut CO2 10% by 2019
  • US “green” power increased to 4500 GWh annually


2a 2 3 2 us energy markets
2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets
  • The “Grid” moves electric energy from high voltage sources to slightly lower voltage loads
  • Losses occur along transmission lines of ~3 - 5%
  • Wind energy can be put into the grid and sold far away
    • “Wind electrons” don’t travel all the way to the load
    • Just a commodity trade of ~$65/MWh in large blocks
  • Carbon offsets, carbon footprints, CO2 market trading
  • Fly all over the world and pay for offset; may be a scam --- Federal Trade Commission


2a 2 3 2 us energy markets1
2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets
  • Prices continue to trend upwards or fluctuate
  • Natural gas is most volatile fuel


2a 3 worldwide markets
2a.3 Worldwide Markets
  • Oil (and sub-products) and natural gas are marketed and shipped on the international commodity market
    • A commodity is somewhat indistinguishable regardless of source (fungible) -- Crude oil futures $36 on 1/12/2009
    • Branding is sometimes used to attempt to get a better price -- like Florida orange juice vs. California
  • If oil exporter decides not to sell to US, they sell elsewhere, and US buys from there
  • OPEC (~15 countries) decides on total production based on price; allocated based upon reserves; estimated reserves may be kited to get more market share + Russian influence


2a 3 1 worldwide markets
2a.3.1 Worldwide Markets
  • Gasoline is often the same to the tank truck distribution point, where additives color the gasoline with dyes or provide cleaning solvents, but mostly enhance marketing content
  • Volatile fuel prices, but trends higher with time
  • Natural gas price shows winter demand cyclic peaks for Northern states heating; storm dependent
    • Utilities compete with homeowners on price; same with heating oil


2a 2 4 1 coal
2a.2.4.1 Coal
  • The US has large coal reserves that are expected to last ~200 years
  • Potential for building 40GW of new plants (for reference, St. Lucie nuclear plant ~1.7GW); killed by Florida Public Service Commission
  • “Clean Coal” with reduced emissions is heavily Federal-subsidized
  • Coal mining kills 1000s of miners each year worldwide

CO2 declared a pollutant that EPA must regulate; EPA deciding what to do

FPL “Clean Coal” plant request rejected by FPSC; four others also rejected

Coal-to-liquid transportation fuel is controversial; developed by Germans during World War II; “synfuel”


2a 2 4 2 petroleum crude oil
2a.2.4.2 Petroleum (Crude Oil)
  • Raw crude oil is a commodity traded in the world market
    • The price fluctuates with worldwide demand
    • $57/barrel on 12/21/2005; $62 on 12/4/06; $56 on 1/5/2007; $53.75 on 1/11/07; broke $100 on 1/2/08; $38 on 1/20/09
    • Affects stock market and trading psychology
    • Turmoil in foreign countries affects world market; Kenya and Nigeria violence killed many; Foreign companies disliked and attacked
  • #2 fuel oil is widely used for home heating in the Northeast
    • Homeowners compete with large utilities for fuel
    • Mild 2006 winter meant more diesel fuel available & less heating oil produced; same for 2007
    • Cold weather now would use more oil and drive prices higher
  • Multitude of products and materials such as gasoline, diesel, plastics feedstocks produced from petroleum
  • TV stock pundit Jim Cramer,, observes that many oil fields now require more drilling of wells just to get the same production, so invest in drilling companies (disclaimer: I did with FSESX, a mutual fund)


2a 2 4 2 crude oil prices
2a.2.4.2 Crude Oil Prices
  • As supply and demand meet, high volatility results
    • $147 peak then fell to $33 and is now about $38
      • Estimates of $10 to $200/gallon are rampant
  • As gasoline reached $4/gallon, drivers cut back, changed routes, bought smaller vehicles with better fuel economy
    • Prices below $2/gallon and yet the surplus of supply led to worldwide “demand destruction”


2a 2 4 2 1 top exporters
2a. Top Exporters
  • OPEC controls the prices of its members
  • World market also controls by supply and demand
  • The United States imports much of its foreign oil supply from Venezuela (12 to 15% of US needs)
    • Politics and union strikes dominate Venezuela oil market
    • Pres. Chavez is a socialist and anti-US, pro-Cuba; reelected 12/2006; inaugurated 1/10/07


2a 2 4 2 2 iraq
2a. Iraq
  • $1.3B-$18B oil smuggling was known to UN Security Council but was not stopped according to Paul Volcker [Seattle Post Intelligencer, 12/27/2004]; different from “oil-for-food” (or oil-for-palaces) program that the UN also mishandled
  • Iraq has significant oil reserves (third) yet has a fraction of the World market
    • Greatest price effect is from psychological impact of turmoil on markets
    • Unstable population prevents normal production
  • Oil pipelines are readily sabotaged as they often are exposed above sand, isolated, and easy to bomb


2a 2 4 2 3 iran
2a. Iran
  • Iran is developing nuclear power with Russian & Chinese help
    • Useful for ensuring more oil to export when prices soar
    • Greatest price effect is from psychological impact of turmoil on markets
    • Handy for nuclear weapons, too!
  • They sell oil on the world market under OPEC membership
  • Wanted to change OPEC valuation to Euros due to inflation of the US dollar but didn’t pass


2a 2 4 2 4 afghanistan
2a. Afghanistan
  • Afghanistan could be a route to bring petroleum pipelines from Turkmenistan in the north to the Arabian Sea for ease of water export
  • Turkmenistan has onshore and Caspian Sea oil fields
  • Turmoil in Afghanistan prevents development; tribal chiefs (politically incorrect: warlords) control remote areas
  • National government tenuous


2a 2 4 3 natural gas ng
2a.2.4.3 Natural Gas (NG)
  • Clean-burning NG is the utility fuel of choice because of low emissions
  • Supplies are limited in N. America, and importation from overseas by liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers will become necessary
    • Environmentalists are fighting any new LNG terminals, saying that conservation and efficiency are all that is required to reduce demand
  • Natural gas is widely used for home heating in the Midwest
  • Dow executive says 30 to 40 times current LNG terminals are needed to meet future demand
  • LNG pipeline and terminal proposed for Fort Lauderdale FL
    • 10 miles offshore; LNG gasified from seawater heat; reduces hazard that Boston has
    • See the huge LNG tanker attacked by terrorists in the closing moments of the oil intrigue thriller movie “Syriana” (couldn’t happen here since would be stopped just like drug smugglers)


2a 2 4 3 natural gas field peaking
2a.2.4.3 Natural Gas Field Peaking


2a 2 4 3 1 merchant power plants
2a. Merchant Power Plants
  • Merchant plants sell power to utilities on short notice (phone call), as they can be started and deliver full power in about 20 minutes
  • The Oleander Plant near I-95 and FL 520 went online ~11/2002; 5 aeroderivative turbines (simple-cycle without HRSG); combined-cycle turbines would have been more efficient but would not qualify under PURPA (Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act) law defect.
  • Clean NG plants can burn oil if cheaper that day
  • Power is sold under “Power Purchase Agreements” in blocks of megawatt-hours at about $65 per megawatt-hour


2a 2 4 4 nuclear energy
2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Energy
  • Iran talks resume, stop, resume, stop, resume, etc.
  • Power, or for weapons
    • Some say oil-rich Iran doesn’t need nuclear power, but when oil becomes extremely expensive, say $300/bbl, they will want local power from other means so they can export all the oil
    • Russia may host Iranian fuel processing and reprocessing
  • World nuclear power cleanup means high expenses --- ~$1.7T
  • Yucca Mt. divisive debate continues; Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is new majority leader and controls what bills go to the floor and which are ignored, so Yucca Mt. may languish indefinitely
  • More nuclear plants proposed for Florida to diversify energy sources, and the alternative is coal (coal rejected by FPSC)
    • No CO2, so being pushed as “Clean Energy”
    • (I like renewables, but massive power is needed from conventional utilities)


2a 2 4 4 nuclear uranium depletion
2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Uranium Depletion
  • Uranium supplies diminish as more is mined; price will rise
  • Time to peak varies, but may be 30 years


2a 2 4 4 1 north korean nuclear plants
2a. North Korean Nuclear Plants
  • The US had been selling oil to North Korea to keep them from starting/continuing their nuclear program (possible weapons)
  • A side effect of nuclear power plants is that the plutonium content of the fuel rods increases with age, and weapons might be made from the “spent fuel” through reprocessing
  • When the US stopped oil sales because of North Korean missile sales, North Korea announced that it must again turn to nuclear power to get energy; US fears weapon development
  • North Korea has now disconnected or blocked IDEA surveillance cameras at their power plants and pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
  • They now claim to have reprocessed uranium to get plutonium for nuclear weapons


2a 2 4 5 hydropower
2a.2.4.5 Hydropower
  • China building 12.6GW Xiluodudam; 22.4GW now at Three Gorges Dam
  • Belize completed 7.3MW dam; earlier, build 25MW dam at Macal River; these are <30MW and are “small” hydro
  • Primary power source in WA, OR, & AZ
  • Smaller hydro in many other states; Florida has two plants near Tallahassee
  • Small dams often now being removed
  • Methane and CO2 emissions from decaying organic matter in reservoir?
    • Emissions are worse in tropical heat


2a 2 4 6 1 land onshore wind energy
2a. Land/Onshore Wind Energy
  • Atlantic City NJ has 4 new turbines at a sewage treatment plant that will supply much of the power there


2a 2 4 6 2 offshore wind energy
2a. Offshore Wind Energy
  • Wind is strong and steady offshore, but installation is costly in seabed
  • US has 900 GW offshore potential
  • DOE, GE, and Univ Mass form Mass Tech Collaborative
  • LILA project ended due to cost doubling
  • Galveston Offshore Wind to build 7 miles off Galv. Island; 50 wind turbines 150MW in 4 to 7 years
  • Minerals Management Service, US DOI has offshore authority
  • Floating Hywind 3MW turbines 80m above water; 90m diameter
  • GE opened turbine plant near Raleigh NC
    • GE makes blades in Pensacola FL
  • Clipper Windpower developing a 7.5 MW offshore turbine for UK


2a 2 4 7 solar energy
2a.2.4.7 Solar Energy
  • ECD Ovonics opening thin-film plant in China; 25MW/year
  • San Diego buying power from Stirling dishes; 300MW 6000 units in 3 square miles; Powerlight?
  • NYC BIPV rated 210kWp at Stillwell Ave. Station
  • As EU fails to meet Kyoto Protocol, more solar cells will go from US factories to Germany, etc.
  • (For reference, the St. Lucie Nuclear Plant is 2 cells x 850MW)
  • FPL building 300 MW of solar thermal trough plant
  • Netherland company building roadway solar thermal collector to heat adjacent buildings


2a 2 4 8 geothermal energy
2a.2.4.8 Geothermal Energy
  • The Geysers CA (near Calistoga) continues to provide steam turbine power
  • Air conditioning Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) can extract or reject heat using ground water, significantly increasing the efficiency
  • Common with Florida 68-degree artesian water in 1960s
    • Heated water was dumped


2a 2 4 9 1 ocean current energy
2a. Ocean Current Energy
  • New system to be deployed near Portugal
  • Palatka-based Ocean Systems prototyped 10-ft diameter turbine
    • Locations like Gulf Stream are limited
    • Rivers might use similar designs
  • Florida Atlantic University starting a $5M Ocean Center to extract energy from the Gulf Stream with underwater turbines
    • Could fulfill 30% of Florida’s needs


2a 2 4 9 2 ocean wave energy
2a. Ocean Wave Energy
  • Pelamis pipeline-type prototype installed
  • US Navy funding 1MW wave farm off Hawaii
  • Linear generator installed in UK in 2005 [like shaker flashlights [not Shaker (;-) ])
  • SDE 40MW Sri Lanka plant
    • Hydraulic piston motors drive generators
  • Ocean Power Technology 1MW Oahu Hawaii
  • Manchester “Bobber” scale model deployed
  • Finavera’s AquaBuoy 2.0 test buoy sank of Oregon coast; lasted two months [ON&T, Vol. 13, Issue 8, Dec07]
  • 1 MW Irish Wavebob prototype


2a 2 4 9 3 ocean tidal energy
2a. Ocean Tidal Energy
  • Tidal power was used in US ~1700 for grain mills
  • Test installations in North Sea near Scotland, Orkney
  • “Total Delay” to be constructed about 2007/2008
  • Canada’s Bay of Fundy 1.2 MW SeaGen turbine from UK
  • Marine Current Turbine’s 300kW unit shown below left; others right


2a 2 4 9 4 ocean thermal energy


2a. Ocean Thermal Energy
  • Ocean Thermal Energy Lab in Hawaii now supplies cooling water for buildings; was in shutdown due to high costs
  • OTEC is too expensive for power production now --- But, wait! There’s more! Legal pork “earmark” got millions to restore operation
    • Japan is planning an OTEC installation at an atoll


2a 2 4 10 biomass energy
2a.2.4.10 Biomass Energy
  • Brazil sugar production diverted to ethanol
    • Brazil drilling for oil offshore, using many production rigs
  • Major potential source of Florida renewable energy
    • Protests starting over land use
    • Ethanol pollution and low energy efficiency claims
    • More energy to produce than can be gotten out of it, or maybe the reverse: 0.7 to 1.3 ratios
  • Direct combustion and cofiring
  • Sugar to ethanol & oils to biodiesel
  • Cellulose converted by enzymes into desired product
  • Florida sweet sorghum and jatropha planting for biodiesel


2a 2 5 1 international
2a.2.5.1 International
  • United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    • Stated global warming exists and much is caused by humans
    • Ice melting and sea level rise is a global warming concern
    • It’s about 1 to 3.8 mm per year --- wear your boots!
  • Kyoto protocol cuts carbon emissions below 1990 reference year
    • Most countries can’t do it now
    • Bali conference had GHG people flying from all over the world to save energy and cut emissions! Kyoto expires soon
  • UN Montreal COP11 meeting discussed further energy and emission policy
    • US and China declined to join talks for binding limits due to economic constraints
  • European Parliament wants 20 to 25% renewables [RE News]
  • Berlin mandates new buildings have 75% solar power
  • US greenhouse gases (GHG) rose 2% in 2004 [EIA]


2a 2 5 1 1 iran
2a. Iran
  • Iran is the second largest oil producer with a total of 3.5 MM bpd. [Source: AFP, ]
  • Iran has extensive oil fields supplying 10% of World’s oil energy
    • New agreements to supply China with oil
  • Multibillion dollar pipelines are planned to India
  • Iran has agreed to temporary halt to nuclear reprocessing capability (but continues?)
  • China backs Iran for oil in the UN Security Council
  • Difficult political problem; Russia supplies nuclear materials to Iran
  • Striving for independent nuclear capability


2a 2 5 1 2 china
2a. China
  • China developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy
  • Three Gorges dam has 26 turbines x 700MW = 18 000 GW and has 175 m height [Renewable Energy World, Nov/Dec 04]
  • Greatly increased Chinese car and truck production demands more gasoline and diesel; they compete on the World market for oil
  • Gains minority stake in Russia’s Yukos oil
  • Tried to buy California SOCAL oil company but blocked by US government


2a 2 5 1 3 india
2a. India
  • India developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy
  • Deregulating coal to increase production 1/11/07
  • Greatly increased car and truck production demands more gasoline and diesel; they, too, compete on World market
  • Tata Motors selling a US$2500 car that attracts more first-time car owners
  • India’s population growing faster than China and will soon surpass China in population and energy demands


2a 2 5 1 4 russia
2a. Russia
  • Russian Gazprom withheld NG from Ukraine, but European Union gas is supplied at west end; now resolved after two weeks ~1/20/09


2a 2 5 1 4a ukraine effects
2a. Ukraine Effects







2a 2 5 1 5 us general energy costs
2a. US General Energy Costs

ON&T, 11/22/05 p.48


2a 2 5 1 5 other areas of interest
2a. Other Areas of Interest
  • Europe: Onshore and offshore wind turbines; High fuel taxes
  • Greece: Solar, wind, geothermal, biomass = greatest use of renewable energy in Europe
  • Bolivia: Socialist president elected 12/18/2005
  • Hydrogen can be electrolyzed for sale at $4 to $15 per kg
  • PA 680MW solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2020


2a 2 5 1 5 the pickens plan
2a. The Pickens Plan
  • Oil man T. Boone Pickens has invested $58 million in advertising his plan to get us off foreign oil
    • Build windfarms through the Great Plains
    • Use natural gas to power 350,000 18-wheeler trucks with compressed natural gas in three years
    • Has met with the chief politicians to push his plan (helps to be a billionaire)


2a 2 5 1 5 the pickens plan1
2a. The Pickens Plan

Start a chapter:

Monthly Oil Imports

Barrels of Oil Imported by the U.S.

379.6 million in December 2008

% Imported from Foreign Countries

66.5% in December 2008

Money Sent Overseas

$19.3 Billion in December 2008


2a 2 5 2 state of florida energy
2a.2.5.2 State of Florida Energy
  • Florida has “Action Team”, Energy Commission, FEO, D of Ag biofuel program, FDEP, Public Service Commission
  • Gov. Crist held climate change conference in Miami with Gov. Schwarzenegger
  • Florida has extensive biomass that could be used for thermal or electrical generation
    • Sugar cane bagasse for ethanol or chip wood for “cellulosic methanol”
    • Enviros fighting biofuels due to land, emissions, etc.
  • Solar energy in Melbourne is approximately 4.7 equivalent sun hours per day due to rain storms, cloudiness, etc. while Arizona has 6 to 7
  • Florida is rated “marginal” or Class 2 for wind energy, though possibly offshore Jacksonville, it is much higher at Class 3-4
  • PSC 10-year outlook report
  • 1990, 11% NG; 2005, 30%; 2014, 44%
  • 2005, 10% nuclear; new plant in 2015?


2a 2 5 2 state of florida energy1
2a.2.5.2 State of Florida Energy
  • Florida resources: biomass, solar, wind, ocean current
    • Florida Atlantic Univ. researching Gulf Stream Energy
  • FPSC report prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. of Burlington MA developing utility rules, PSC recommended, goes to FL legislature
  • Gov. Crist wants 20% RE by 2020, but 2041 seems more likely; still, PSC now recommends “20% by 2020”; nice motto
  • Study shows 27% by 2020 best case to 6% by 2020 worst case!



Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:44 PM


Subject: Renewable energy gets push in Florida Legislature

Renewable energy gets push in Florida Legislature The Miami Herald, Monday, January 12, 2009

"TALLAHASSEE -- Florida electric companies would have to rely on an increasingly heavy mix of wind, solar and biomass to generate their power over the next 11 years, under a proposed rule state regulators voted to send to the Legislature late Thursday.

Calling their decision ''historic,'' the Florida Public Service Commission unanimously voted to send the Legislature the proposal that calls for 20 percent of their fuel mix to come from renewable energy sources by 2020. They also agreed that consumers could be charged up to 3 percent more in order to jumpstart the market for the clean technologies

The commission's draft rule would require that 75 percent of the renewable energy fee go to finance solar and wind production and 25 percent go to finance biomass production.

The Legislature can approve or reject the recommendation before the rule takes effect.

The rule also recommends the following goals:

* 7 percent of the fuel used by power companies come from renewable energy sources by 2013, 18 percent by 2019 and 20 percent by 2020;

* commissioners will review the goals every three years;

* penalties for companies that fail to meet the goals;

The vote was a victory for Gov. Charlie Crist who first recommended the ''20 percent by 2020'' standard and won plaudits from the environmental and alternative energy industires. But PSC staff concluded last year that that wasn't achievable until 2041. Florida got 3.6 percent of its electricity from alternative energy as of 2007, the commission said.

The commission hired a private consulting company, Navigant, to conduct a thorough study and market analysis. Navigant concluded that Florida could reach at least 24 percent of its energy portfolio from renewable energy by 2020 with the right incentives.

The commission also recommended that the Legislature exclude nuclear energy from the 20 percent requirement, something Florida Power & Light and other large utility companies fought hard to get."

2a 3 past energy events
2a.3 Past Energy Events

(older than ~1 year)

  • US Congress battled with Senate over 2007 Energy Act
  • Politics shifted, and changes in renewable and other energy issues continue to be revised
  • Individual states acting together to bypass Federal lagging in energy and GHG action


2a conclusion recent events
2a Conclusion: Recent Events
  • The primary event has been soaring and plummeting oil prices, falling dollar, and the World sinking into recession
  • Passage of the 2008 Energy Policy Act
  • GM, Ford, and Chrysler closing some dealerships ass they are losing business to fuel efficient cars and trucks; sales declining
    • Ford surviving but GM and Chrysler facing bankruptcy
  • Utilities must keep ~15% margin over increasing power demand; build more plants
  • Energy plants NG use competes with home heating, and cost is rising with demand; 15% imported; needed LNG importation fought by environmentalists
  • Oil was at $26.01 as of 12/12/2002; $97 on 1/2/08; $147 falling to $36 on 12/18/08
  • China and India will soon surpass US in energy emissions as their population rises and demand increases


olin engineering complex 4 7 kw solar pv roof array
Olin Engineering Complex 4.7 kW Solar PV Roof Array


Earlier slides may follow this page


2a references books
2a References: Books
  • Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future, Second Ed. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 452 pp., 2004.
  • Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973.
  • Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4.
  • Crichton, Michael. State of Fear. NY: HarperCollins Publishers, Inc., 603pp., 2004.0-06-621413-0.


2 a references websites other
2.a References: Websites, other International Atomic Energy Agency Energy Information Agency

NPR radio, CNN news, Fox News Channel, MSNBC News

__________________________ Wind Energy elist Wind energy home powersite elist on geothermal energy Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population -- a good units definition site -- quick country guide



Slide stockpile follows!

Older slides follow this one. Look at these if you have interest or time. It’s difficult to decide what to leave out of the lecture to save time!

energy news headlines as of 1 2008
Energy News Headlines as of 1/2008

Toyota Highlander

  • 12/07 Congress passes 2007 Energy Act and Pres. Bush signs it.
  • 12/07 Auto Show news of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles coming in 2008-2009
  • ~12/07 E85 panned and praised. Better solution may be diesel
  • 12/27/07 Assassination of Pakistan’s former prime minister Benizar Bhutto causes spike in crude oil futures
  • 12/28/07 Companies hiring likely “include wind, battery, and solar energy firms and hydrogen”
  • 1/2/08 Oil breaks $100/bbl; falls back during session
    • Nigerian violence, Mexican disruption, price up 60% in 2007
  • FPL continues to develop and operate the majority (40%) of US windfarms
  • More windfarms erected in the West and Great Plains of US
  • Xcel Energy will add 775MW wind plant to 282MW in CO; sells to SCE & PG&E in CA --- AWEA
  • Canada to install 7000MW by 2013 [Renewable Energy News]


2a 4 1 energy fiction book
2a.4.1 Energy Fiction Book
  • Michael Crichton wrote “State of Fear” about tsunamis and climate change, finishing ~September 2004
    • Conspirators, media manipulation, killings, romance, adventure, eco-terrorists, shady orchestrators of environmental organizations, billionaire funding
    • Characters in the story provide footnotes as references!
    • Scientific uncertainty is discussed; graphs presented
    • Crichton appendix states his feelings on science & bias
    • Twenty-page bibliography
    • Number 2 on New York Times best-seller list 1/11/2005
  • Crichton quotes Mark Twain: “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”
  • Book attacked by environmentalists


2a 4 2 energy movies
2a.4.2 Energy Movies
  • “Syriana” released in December 2005
    • Story of oil peak, intrigue, and manipulation in the Middle East; corrupt companies and individuals
    • Starring George Clooney plays CIA agent, and is a Palestinian prime minister look-alike
    • Alexander Siddig (Dr. Bashir of “Star Trek: Deep Space Nine”) plays an ethical good prince of Syriana who gets killed for wanting best interests for his country’s people
  • “China Syndrome” atomic meltdown starring Jane Fonda
  • “Cold Fusion” (it’s still fiction!)