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50-Seat Regional Jets

50-Seat Regional Jets. Citigroup/GECAS Regional Jet Conference May 20, 2004. Doug Kelly Vice President – Asset Valuation AVITAS, Inc. Agenda. Current Fleets & Backlog Performance & Economics Past, Present & Future Values. CRJ-100/200 vs. ERJ-145. No. of Aircraft. Operators/Orderholders

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50-Seat Regional Jets

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  1. 50-Seat Regional Jets Citigroup/GECAS Regional Jet Conference May 20, 2004 Doug Kelly Vice President – Asset Valuation AVITAS, Inc.

  2. Agenda • Current Fleets & Backlog • Performance & Economics • Past, Present & Future Values

  3. CRJ-100/200 vs. ERJ-145 No. of Aircraft Operators/Orderholders Years in Service 51 12 30 7

  4. Regional Jets Dominate Order Book As of April 2004 No. of Aircraft Regional Jets 830 Orders Turboprops 50 Orders

  5. CRJ-100/200 Operators Operator US Airways Comair Atlantic Southeast Airlines Skywest Atlantic Coast Airlines Air Wisconsin Pinnacle Airlines Northwest Mesa Lufthansa Cityline Air Nostrum Lufthansa Air Canada Brit Air All Others Total In Service - 137 92 111 87 68 87 - 46 43 24 - 25 21 152 893 Orders 40 - 27 15 34 1 - 39 - - 7 3 - - 2 168 Options 165 68 69 58 55 95 - 25 - - 10 30 - - 11 586 Total 205 205 188 184 176 164 87 64 46 43 41 33 25 21 165 1,647 Source: BACK Information Services

  6. ERJ-145ER/LR/XR Operators Operator Expressjet Airlines American Eagle US Airways Chautauqua Airlines Mesa Airlines British Airways Citiexpress Regional Airlines Trans States Aerolitoral Alitalia Express British Midland Airways Swiss International LOT Polish Luxair All Others Total In Service 199 60 - 53 36 28 27 35 - 14 10 16 14 9 47 548 Orders 45 66 - 21 - - 8 - 5 - 2 - - - 6 153 Options 100 42 140 34 46 17 - - 25 7 5 - - - - 416 Total 344 168 140 108 82 45 35 35 30 21 17 16 14 9 53 1,117 Source: BACK Information Services

  7. Regional Aircraft: Seats vs. Speed 30 Seats 50 Seats 70 Seats 500 CRJ-700 Embraer 170/175 CRJ-100/-200 450 ERJ 145 CRJ 440 RJ 85 ERJ 135 ERJ 140 400 Do328JET Saab 2000 DHC8-400 Speed (knots) 350 Do 328 EMB120 ATR 42-500 DHC8-200 300 DHC8-300 J41 S340 ATR 72-210 DHC8-100 250 200 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Seats

  8. Range Capability from Dallas Vancouver Seattle Toronto New York Salt Lake City Chicago Washington DALLAS Los Angeles Houston Miami Mexico City Range Capability from Dallas ERJ-145 XR ERJ-145 LR ERJ-145 ER CRJ-200LR Assumptions: 85% Annual Winds 3% Airways Factor Long Range Cruise Speed Manufacturer Assumptions 220 lb per Pax & Bag (Embraer) 213 lb per Pax & Bag (Bombardier)

  9. Salt Lake City Chicago Toronto Denver New York St Louis WASHINGTON Dallas Atlanta Miami Mexico City Range Capability from Washington CRJ-200LR CRJ-200ER ERJ-145LR Assumptions: 85% Annual Winds 3% Airways Factor Long Range Cruise Speed Manufacturer Assumptions 213 lb per Pax & Bag (Bombardier) 220 lb per Pax & Bag (Embraer)

  10. Moscow Oslo Stockholm LONDON Frankfurt Paris Milan Madrid Athens Cairo Tenerife Range Capability from London CRJ-200LR ERJ-145LR Assumptions: 85% Annual Winds 3% Airways Factor Long Range Cruise Speed Manufacturer Assumptions 213 lb per Pax & Bag (Bombardier) 220 lb per Pax & Bag (Embraer)

  11. 50-Seat Jet Beats Turboprop > 400 nm DOC per ASM (US$) ERJ-145ER (new) DHC-8-300 (new) Stage Length (nm)

  12. Traffic Growth for Regional Carrriers RPMs (Billions) 106.4 8.4% AAGR 40.2 Source: Aviation Week & Space Technology, April 26, 2004, FAA Aerospace Forecast; US Transportation Dept.

  13. Historical Market Values - MD-82 vs. CRJ/ERJ MD-82 (1997) CRJ-200ER (1997) ERJ-145ER (1997) Source: AVITAS BlueBook of Jet Aircraft Values

  14. Current Market & Future Base Values for CRJ/ERJ CRJ-200ER (2004) ERJ-145ER (2004) Future Base Values Assume a 2.5% Inflation Rate

  15. 50-Seat Regional Jet Summary Strengths Weaknesses • Two Manufacturers • Broad Operator Base • Strong Order Backlog • Few Available • Passenger Preference • Hub Raiding Capability • Lower Costs vs Turbo >400nm • Robust Regional Growth • Concentration in North Am. • Financial Weakness of Majors • Scope Clauses Limit Growth • Limited Operator Base for Some Model Types • More Expensive Than Turboprops • Untested Economic Useful Life

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