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Managing Risks in a Changing Climate

Managing Risks in a Changing Climate. Stephen E. Zebiak , International Research Institute for Climate and Society. Why does climate matter for Africa?. Development – MDGs. 5 of 8 Millennium Development Goals are Climate Sensitive extreme poverty and hunger child mortality

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Managing Risks in a Changing Climate

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  1. Managing Risks ina Changing Climate • Stephen E. Zebiak, • International Research Institutefor Climate and Society

  2. Why does climate matter • for Africa?

  3. Development – MDGs • 5 of 8 Millennium Development Goalsare Climate Sensitive • extreme poverty and hunger • child mortality • maternal health • malaria and other diseases • environmental sustainability

  4. Managing Risks ina Changing Climate • Stephen E. Zebiak, • International Research Institutefor Climate and Society

  5. Why does climate matter for Africa?

  6. Development – MDGs 5 of 8 Millennium Development Goalsare Climate Sensitive • extreme poverty and hunger • child mortality • maternal health • malaria and other diseases • environmental sustainability

  7. In Africa, the semi-arid areas are prone to negative, anti-development climate outcomes such as: Climate impacts accrue across many sectors, and ripple through the economy.

  8. Disasters • Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Center

  9. IPCC Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation: • 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999

  10. Climate and Development • World Bank

  11. Seasonal Predictability Areas and seasons in Africa where seasonal rainfall totals have predictability. COF – Climate Outlook Fora produce information for upcoming season.

  12. Integrated Climate RiskManagement Approach • Identify climate-related vulnerabilities and opportunities • Which outcomes, which systems • Characterize relevant climate risks • Learn from past, monitor present, assess information on future • Identify portfolio of solutions • Tools/technologies (water storage, drought resistant cultivars, cropping calendars, diversification, vaccinations, bed nets) • Policies/practices (early warning/response systems, insurance, dynamic reservoir management) • Contingency plans Win-win scenarios: address immediate development goals & build resilience for future (adaptation)

  13. CRM: Manage the EntireRange of Risks

  14. Identify Vulnerabilities

  15. Time Scales of RainfallVariability 20th Century

  16. Seasonal Forecast Information(Translation to likelihood of dry spells, shifts of monsoon onset, etc

  17. Integrated malaria earlywarning systems

  18. MEWS offers opportunities forplanning and preparedness… NMCP strengthen vector control measures and prepare emergency containers with mobile treatment centres

  19. IFRC Map Room

  20. The Angat Reservoir,Philippines Built in 1968 Competing uses • Manila’s drinking water • Electricity generation • Irrigation • Flood control Complex allocation system

  21. Case StudyReservoir Management For wet extremes • Dynamic operations rules based on climate forecasts • Increases power generation • Assists in flood control For dry extremes • Investigating use of options contracts and insurance tools

  22. CRM: Manage the Entire Range of Variability • Role of Weather Index Insurance • Government Emergency Funds (Reinsurers)

  23. Case StudyIndex Insurance, Southern Africa In Malawi, smallholderfarmers report they cannot currently obtain inputs necessary to address climate variability New contracts provide for a package of loans, groundnut and maize inputs Working toward packages including price incentives, risk protection to take advantage of forecasts • Partners include Malawi farmers and financing associations (NASFAM, OIBM MRFC, Malawi Insurance Association), the World Bank CRMG, Malawi Met Service, CUCRED

  24. Global Collaboration • Focus on development outcomes and equity • Sharing of data and information products • Incorporation of climate risk into development programs and policies • Knowledge sharing on good practices (best science) • Interdisciplinary research, demonstration and evaluation • Enabling mechanism: Global Framework for Climate Services (or other?)

  25. Thank You • Stephen E. Zebiak, • International Research Institutefor Climate and Society

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