Why now, why us?

1. Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue • Health arguments not heard Mike Gill Co-chair Climate and Health Council

2. Never waste a crisis

7. Food Production Up to 2003 Food production >x2 since 1960 Food production per capita had grown Food prices had fallen Percent of undernourished fallen But the benefits are uneven, with 850 million people still hungry Significant environmental degradation

10. Water 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)

11. Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue

13. 350m years-worth of CO2 64m (354-290m years ago) = Carboniferous

14. …which we are burning VERY fast 150 years 100 years 50 years NOW First Oil Well 4142 cars, 10 miles concrete road in US First commercial jet ticket 650,000,000 cars 4,800,000,000 passenger flights

15. 205,733 kg of coal….. 92,652,841 litres of gas…. 156,284 litres of oil….. …….. A SECOND Billions of tonnes of CO2

17. Not only are we producing record levels of greenhouse gases, we are removing the planet’s ability to absorb them Half of all forests have been destroyed in the 50 years prior to 2000 = 20 football pitches every minute

19. Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)

21. Katrina cost as much as four years of war in Iraq: $250 BILLION

22. WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2008LIVING PLANET INDEX “Ground-living vertebrates have declined by 25%, with most of the slump occurring since 1980. Marine species held fairly steady until the late 1990s before falling sharply to give an overall drop of 28%. Freshwater species have decreased by 25%, primarily since the late 1980s.”

23. MASS EXTINCTION EVENTS 500 million 400 million 300 million 200 million 100 million 200 million Triassic-Jurassic 360 million Devonian-Carbiniferous 65 million Cretaceous- Tertiary 444 million Ordovician- Silurian 50% species die over many thousands of years 20% marine species die 70% species die over 20m years 488 million Cambrian-Ordovician 251 million Permian-Triassic 96% marine/ 70% land species die “A 1998 survey by the American Museum of Natural History found that 70% of biologists view the present era as part of a mass extinction event, the fastest to have ever occurred. Some.. predict the extinction of one-half of all species in the coming decades”

24. We are already losing 3 species AN HOUR

25. AND WE HAVEN’T EVEN STARTED YET…

26. Most global health problems are ‘self inflicted’: War Inequality Tobacco Alcohol Air pollution Road trauma Obesity Malnutrition Physical inactivity Climate Change But climate change will soon be irreversible

28. Although climate change can cause illness and death... - Heat-related deaths - Skin cancer and cataracts - Injuries and infectious diseases as a result of increased flooding - Respiratory disease - Insect-borne disease - Food poisoning

29. …there are even greater risks of widespread trauma, disease and deaths through civil unrest: Crop failure >> famine >> deaths Water shortages >> human conflict >> deaths Mass migration >> human conflict >> deaths Economic collapse >> human conflict >> deaths Resource wars >> human conflict >> deaths Ecosystem collapse >> human conflict >> deaths

30. India builds a 2,500-mile barrier to rival the Great Wall of China Melting glaciers in the Himalayas are wreaking havoc in Bangladesh leading to a rise in illegal migration to India. This has prompted India to build an immense border fence in attempt to block newcomers. 28 February 2006

32. Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue

34. On the obesity epidemic…. ‘A more enlightened health sector would have engaged early with other sectors in relation to a foreseeable (although mostly not foreseen) crisis, reducible by intersectoral planning in relation to urban design, transport systems, food production, and marketing.’ McMichael AJ et alThe Lancet, 374; 2123 - 2125

35. Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue • Health arguments not heard

36. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC; 1992) committed nations to work collectively to engage in……. “minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment” (Article 4, Item f)

37. Why did Copenhagen not get further? Developing countries want developed countries to • allow them to develop, and pay for the cost of the clean energy they need to do so • show responsibility for the current mess by committing to huge reductions in their own GHG emissions • support them financially in necessary adaptation

39. Three challenges Structured assessments of risk Development of adaptation strategies Telling the co-benefits story

40. The Co-benefits story - headlines What’s good for the climate is good for health Low carbon societies are the next great health advance Mitigation actions will result in huge, immediate, and certain health benefits

41. The Task Force on Climate Change Mitigation and Public Health Supported by a consortium of funding bodies coordinated by the Wellcome TrustDepartment of Health NIHR, Economic and Social Research Council, Royal College of Physicians, Academy of Medical Sciences, US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and WHOInvolving over 50 researchers from UK, USA, India, Canada, Australia, Spain, France, New Zealand, WHO Geneva

43. Indian Stoves – Traditional and Modern Per meal ~15x less black carbon and other particles ~10x less ozone precursors ~5x less carbon monoxide Traditional Biomass Stove Gasifier Stove with Electric Blower (battery recharged with cell phone charger)

44. Health benefits of the Indian stove programme ALRI=acute lower respiratory infections. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IHD=ischaemic heart disease.

45. GHG benefits of Indian stove programme • Reductions in black carbon, methane, ozone precursors could amount to the equivalent of 0.5-1.0 billion tonnes of CO2 eq over the decade • Cost <$50 per household every 5 years

46. Health and GHG benefits (UK)

48. Action to reduce European CO2 emissions by 30% -> savings “as much as €76 billion per year.” Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL), Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E) and WWF

49. Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue • Health arguments not heard