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The evolution of food shopping Joseph Robinson – Conlumino. Agenda. Agenda. The backdrop. Shopping trends. Market dynamics. Implications. The backdrop. The backdrop Economic growth. GDP growth patterns, year-on-year change (%). 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. -5.0.

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The evolution of food shopping

Joseph Robinson – Conlumino


Agenda

Agenda

The

backdrop

Shopping trends

Market dynamics

Implications



The backdrop

Economic growth

GDP growth patterns, year-on-year change (%)

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-5.0

+1.4

+0.8

-0.3

+1.4

+2.1

+2.4

Recession

Recovery

Double dip

Recovery

Normality


The backdrop

Retail growth

Total retail consumer expenditure growth

3.4%

3.1%

2.2%

1.6%

1.1%

0.9%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


The backdrop

Sector level growth

Home

-0.5%

Forecast sector growth rates for 2012

Gifts

-1.3%

1.9%

1.4%

3.2%

Food

Toys

Eating out

Beauty

3.3%

Electricals

-5.1%

Books

-2.3%

Fashion

2.9%

DIY

-3.7%

Furniture

-7.4%

Music & video

-6.0%


The backdrop

Food: inflation vs. volume

Growth in food:

inflation versus volume

Volume growth (%)

Inflation growth (%)


The backdrop

Summary

Still in a period of change

Consumers remain under pressure

Retail still in the mire

Inflation easing in food



Evolving shopping trends

Lifestyle trends

Single occupancy households

Working from home

1971: 18%

1991: 27%

2011: 29%

2011:

1.3m home workers

3.7m occasional home workers

Convenient meal solutions

‘top-up’ shopping

Locality

Online convenience


Evolving shopping trends

Total online spending

Online

Online spending and growth rates 2010-2020

£bn

%

Online retail expenditure (£bn)

Growth rate (%)


Evolving shopping trends

Online spending by sector

Shopping online

Internet spend, penetration by sector for 2010 vs. 2015


Evolving shopping trends

M-commerce

The value of mobile to retail

Reach value

Influence value

Sales value

£49bn

£1.83bn

£1.06bn

£207bn

£39.66bn

£14.19bn


Evolving shopping trends

Summary

Lifestyle factors influencing behaviour

Rising online penetration

M-commerce is next battleground



Evolving market dynamics

Prioritisation

Household expenditure on food

2007

Pre-recession

2012

After-recession

£5,092

£5,840

44.7%

49.6%

(£11,393)

(£11,772)


Evolving market dynamics

Promiscuity

Total spend and average number of stores used for food shopping

2007

Pre-recession

2012

After-recession

£5,092

£5,840

£2,037

£1,428



Evolving market dynamics

Piecemeal

The number of store types used for food shopping

one

28.2%

51.2%

two

55.4%

42.8%

three

12.3%

5.8%

four

3.7%

0.2%

five+

0.4%

0.0%

2012

2012

2002

2002


Retailers

Piecemeal:

Evolving market dynamics

Piecemeal


Evolving market dynamics

Polarisation

I am thinking much more about

the food I’m buying

69.3%

Buying more expensive foods to substitute eating out

54.3%

Switching to retailer own brands to save money

44.9%

Buying cheaper brands and foodstuffs

31.1%

Cutting back on the amount of food I buy to save money

17.1%


Retailers

Polarisation: trading up

Evolving market dynamics

Polarisation


Retailers

Evolving value expectations

Evolving market dynamics

Polarisation


Retailers

Evolving value expectations

Evolving market dynamics

Flexibility


Evolving market dynamics

Summary

Food representing higher share of budget

Consumers shopping around more

Value expectations are evolving

More different types of stores being used

Transactions becoming more disparate



Implications

Implications for packaging

One size does not fit all

Convenience is key


Implications

Implications for packaging

Packaging as wider marketing tool

Packaging for an online world


Implications

Implications for packaging

Packaging to communicate brand values


Implications

Summary

Convenience is key

One size does not fit all

Packaging for an online world

Packaging as wider marking tool

Packaging to promote brand values


www.conlumino.com

@conlumino.com


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