Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether)

Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether) Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA) Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA) Special Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for input to Scottish GHGi over the years. NESAC, Scottish Government Victoria Quay, Leith, Edinburgh 28 November 2012

What does this presentation cover? • Overview • Trends and Changes • By NC sector • Uncertainties • Changes and Improvements • Where you can find more information

Background: UK and DA GHG inventory and other datasets • UK UNFCCC (Kyoto Protocol) GHG inventory : This presentation • Embedded Emissions (e.g. Scotland's carbon footprint ) • All greenhouse gas emissions at home and abroad from the production, transport and use of goods and services consumed by the Scottish economy. • Environmental Accounts • Emissions from UK citizens activity in the UK and aboard.

Background: The UK and DA GHG inventory: Aims and Objectives • Our aim: • Deliver a strong, accurate evidence base on GHG emissions. • Meet reporting & monitoring commitments (UNFCCC, EU, CCC, SG, Wales & NI) • to inform climate change policy development and implementation. • To do this: • Use UK statistics and bottom up datasets (e.g. EU ETS, other industry reporting). • Use available DA (Scotland)-specific data where possible - this is limited, and there are also some constraining factors (e.g. links to UK datasets – more of this later), • Use UK wide mapping datasets to derive some LA, DA estimates • We believe that it’s a pretty good inventory, but it’s not perfect: • Year-to-year uncertainties are high compared to long time-series trend uncertainties • For DA’s (Scotland) need access more detailed data to help improve the inventory and make it more accurate and sensitive to policy impacts. • there are systems (improvement programme) in place to fix highest priorities, and plenty of examples of us using new data to challenge / improve the current dataset. • Please let us know if you know of more data / research to improve the accuracy of the Scottish GHG Inventory.

Background: UK GHG Inventory – How the GHGI is run. GHGI Single National Entity: Government DECC, SG, WG, NI DoE Defra, SG, WG, NI DoE Aether & Ricardo-AEA GHG inventories: UK, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland National Atmospheric Emissions Inventories Inventory Agency : Sector andpollutant experts Ricardo-AEA, Aether, Enviros Sectors Pollutants Rothamsted Research GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases AQ pollutants: Acidifying pollutants, VOCs, Particulate Matter, Metals, POPs Energy use Transport Industry Waste Agriculture LULUCF CEH Outputs Energy and Emissions Mapping GHG inventories (Annual EU and UNFCCC and KP reporting) Air quality pollutant inventories (Annual CLRTAP, NECD, etc.) DA inventories, OT and CD inventories, Local inventories AQ and GHG projections End user inventories, uncertainties, etc. Local Authority CO2 Inventories

Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (1) • Single National Entity: UK Government Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). Overall responsibility for the UK NIS. • Inventory Agency: Consortium led by Ricardo-AEA, including Aether. Contracted by DECC to manage the inventory compilation, reporting and Quality Assurance system. • Agriculture Inventory: Rothamsted Research. • LULUCF Inventory: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. Key organisations tasked with delivering UK GHGI to EU Monitoring Mechanism and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, using methods consistent with IPCC guidance, on time for submission to EUMM by 15th January each year (so the 1990-2011 GHGI data will be submitted on 15/1/2013 to the EU, then to UNFCCC on 15/4/2013.

Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (2) National Inventory Steering Committee • Panel of representatives from Government Departments, regulatory agencies, other organisations, including Scottish Government. • Prioritise & implement inventory improvements. • Review the UK GHGI prior to data submission to UNFCCC. • Communicate GHGI issues across Government. • Includes representatives of regional and local Government. • Meets twice a year (today!), managed by DECC. • The UK NIS operates an inventory improvement programme that integrates national-level and sub-national level priorities.

Background: DA (Scottish) GHG Inventory Compilation Approach

Background: DA and LA Inventory Compilation (1) • We adopt the basic principle that: Sum of DA or LA inventories = UK Inventory ...for each source and each pollutant. Incorporates benefits of the UK GHGI: • UK inventories subject to rigorous QA/QC, reliable time series, has been developed over 20+ years of research into UK sources. • UK GHGI is a resource of emission factors, many activity data, conversion factors etc. (Can fill gaps in local knowledge.) X Constrains the DA inventory data to align with the UK GHGI totals. e.g. sum of DA energy use in each economic sector is constrained to that presented in DUKES.

Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (2) • “Bottom-up” estimates for sources where we have comprehensive local data, such as: • Industrial point sources • Road transport • Domestic flight data • “Top-down” or modelled estimates for sources where we DON’T have comprehensive local data, such as: • Combustion sources in domestic, commercial, small-scale industry and public administration sectors (e.g. we use the DEMScot model and Scottish Housing Condition Survey data to inform Scotland share of UK-reported domestic emissions) • Waste and sewage treatment and disposal emissions • F-gas emissions from refrigeration and other sources

Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (3) • Use local parameters such as population, employment, housing condition surveys (domestic), industrial production statistics. • Commercial confidentiality limits energy use data – cannot access detailed local AND sector-specific data. Overall local data is available, but not split out by sector. • Modelling approach to derive estimates: • Metered fuels (gas, electricity) greater accuracy than non-metered fuels (oils, solid fuels). • DA/LA estimates for these sources are higher in uncertainty, and inventory data are less sensitive to policy impacts.

Background: Data Sources (1) • Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DECC), EUETS • Pollution Inventories (EA, SEPA,NI DoE) • Transport data (DfT, CAA, shipping data) • Companies & Trade Associations (e.g. UKPIA, BCA, Corus) • Other statistical sources (ONS, ISSB, BGS…) • Farming surveys and UK-wide emission factor research (Rothamsted) • Countryside Surveys (more details from CEH…) • DECC Sub-national Energy Statistics (DECC) • Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SEPA) • Vehicle km data & DVLA data (DfT) • Scottish Housing Condition Survey data and DEMScot model (SG) • Individual companies (e.g. Alcan, Ineos, GSK Montrose, ExxonMobil..) • Population, employment, industrial production data (ONS) • Gas network demand, gas composition and leakage data (Scotia Gas) • Waste water statistics (Scottish Water) • Waste management statistics (SEPA, Defra)

Background: Data Sources (2) • Energy: (Business, Public, Residential, Agricultural machinery) • Sub-national energy statistics: Limited compared to UK energy statistics: Industry and Commercial, Agriculture, Residential • greater uncertainty and less detail than the UK energy statistics:– no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. • Road transport based on fuel sales and vehicle km. (see later in presentation). • EUETS data for some large energy users. • Industrial process (Industrial Process, Business) • plant operator estimates reported to environmental agencies e.g. Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) & EUETS. • Cement and lime kilns, iron and steel works, aluminium and other non-ferrous metal plant, chemical industries; • Agriculture (Livestock & crops & soils) • Annual survey data & UK emission factors : arable production and livestock numbers; • Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) • regional survey data of land use, emission factors and, modelled to calculate GHG emissions and carbon fluxes between sources and sinks; • Waste • modelled emissions from the UK GHG inventory, split out across the DAs based on local authority waste disposal activity reporting - local shares of UK activity for recycling, landfilling, incineration and other treatment and disposal options. • UK statistical data and improvements will impact upon Scottish GHG data, e.g. recent revisions to energy balance data on fuel use in sectors such as: refineries, petrochemicals…also have a large impact in Scotland.

Background: GHG Inventory: Scope • GHG Inventories report annual emissions of all anthropogenic GHG emissions. • Annual: 1990 – 2010 (reported in 2012) = 2 year lag. • Sources: NAEI source/activity categories (370) – IPCC (100) – National Communication (9) • Gases: “Kyoto basket of six” GHGs: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 • Carbon dioxide: mainly from combustion of fuels in different economic sectors, industrial processes, LULUCF sources and sinks • Methane: waste, agriculture • Nitrous oxide: industrial processes, agriculture • F-gases: industrial processes & AC/Refrigeration • Excluded: • Short-cycle biocarbon in the GHGI (e.g. CO2 from plant biomass but not CH4) • International shipping and aviation – “memo items” for DA estimates. • DA: offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities

Background: DA National Communication categories • Agriculture • Livestock, Soils, crops & field burning, energy use in Agriculture Forestry and Fishing • Business • Energy use (combustion for heat and power in businesses) • Use of Solvents & HFC/PFC leakage from appliances (Air conditioning, refrigeration, fire fighting, foams) • Energy Supply • Energy production (electricity, solid & liquid fuels, generation refining and mining and oil and gas extraction**) • Industrial Process • Non energy. Fossil based carbon from feedstocks (e.g. Limestone, metal ores, oil and natural gas) production and use of HFC, PFCs & SF6. • Land Use & Land Use Change • Managed land (e.g. forest, crops, grassland, settlements, wetlands) + Change of use (e.g. Forest -> crop, crop – grass) • Public • Combustion of fossil fuels • Residential • Combustion of fossil fuels (heating, cooking), garden machinery, aerosols & other products, accidental fires • Transport • Civil aviation & airport support vehicles, road vehicles, rail & rail infrastructure, domestic shipping & fishing, military • Waste • Landfill, sewage, incineration. ** Unallocated • offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities

Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e) Non Traded & Traded Split • The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%) • Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp. End User By Source 0.2% < by source (exported electricity) Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%)of total net UK GHG emissions Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year • Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions • Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).

Power generation and consumption data from DECC[1] (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to England and Northern Ireland. Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e) Non Traded & Traded Split • The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E 62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%) • Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions, high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and paper & pulp. Power generation and consumption data from DECC (DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to England and Northern Ireland. End User By Source 0.2% < by source (exported electricity) Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%, W 7.4%, NI 3.8%)of total net UK GHG emissions Trend 31.1% decline since the Base Year • Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%, 3.5% for E, W & NI) of total net UK GHG emissions • Trend: 23.7% decline since the Base Year (26%, 15%, 14.7% decline for E, W & NI).

Trends & Changes: Scottish by Source Emission Trends 1990 - 2010

Trends & Changes: Progress to targets • The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 : existing anthropogenic sources and sinks of emissions in Scotland. Includes: • Allowances for trading within the EU ETS, the EU-wide trading scheme that has been operational since 2005 • Scottish emissions from international aviation and shipping..

Trends & Changes: Changes in by source Emissions in Scotland 1990 - 2010 • Reductions • LULUCF • Industrial Process • Waste • Increases • Energy • Residential

Key Sources and Sinks 2010 • CO2: most important • CH4: Agriculture & Waste • N2O: Agriculture • Energy Supply • Transport • LULUCF

Sectoral Analysis: Energy Supply UK electricity grid GHG factor basis for end user inventories, so ….investment in Scotland renewables wouldn’t necessarily pan out into inventory reductions IN SCOTLAND – will lead to reductions in reported emissions across the UK.

Sectoral Analysis: Transport • Increase despite improvements in efficiency of transport vehicles, as a result of strong growth in transport demand and increased affordability of cars and fuel • constrained (DUKES fuel sales) and unconstrained (vehicle kilometre, vkm) approaches

Sectoral Analysis: Residential • Increase in emissions • cold winters and a resultant high demand for fossil • End User • high consumption of electricity in the sector • improvements in housing energy efficiency and lower carbon intensity of the electricity generation

Sectoral Analysis: Business • declining manufacturing and iron and steel industry emissions • Increasing F-Gas use • End User: high consumption of electricity for heating, lighting and operating equipment lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business and Industrial Process emissions are not easy to separate

Sectoral Analysis: Public Service • building energy efficiency • convert to the use of gas-fired boilers • End user = 193% of the by source emission • High % electricity use

Sectoral Analysis: Industrial Process • Closure • nitric acid plant, • Ravenscraig iron and steel works, • Reduction in emissions from the chemicals and cement sectors lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset, Business and Industrial Process emissions are not easy to separate

Sectoral Analysis: Agriculture • Almost 85% of total N2O • fertiliser nitrogen use, manure applications and grazing returns to soils • declined by 21.6% 1990-2010 from decline in livestock numbers (manure) and in fertiliser nitrogen use • CH4 affected by decline in numbers of livestock (15.5% decline over the period 1990-2010) • End User: Majority of emissions in the agriculture sector are not due to energy consumption.

Sectoral Analysis: LULUCF • reduction in emissions from land conversion to cropland from grassland and forests. • largest source = Cropland (5,321 ktCO2e in 2010) (including maintenance and conversion to) releases carbon from clearing of biomass and from ploughing of soils. • Removals from the maintenance of, and conversion to, forestland and grassland. Long-term forest management (the extensive conifer plantations established in the mid-20th century are now reaching felling age, with reduced removals from forest but with increased carbon stocks in harvested wood products in recent years).

Sectoral Analysis: Waste • The UK waste model methane from landfills based statistics on waste arisings, degradation rates of different components of waste, and UK-wide estimates of methane capture and oxidation, both in the landfill surface layer and in flares and gas engines.) • Scotland DON’T have any data specific to methane combustion in flares and gas engines Assumptions on progressive introduction of methane capture and oxidation systems within landfill management

Overview: Changes (due to new data and/or improved inventory estimation methodologies) since 2011 estimates • 2009 Recalculations : • Business: (1,007 ktCO2e increase) • industrial combustion allocation of (OPG) use in Scotland across the inventory time series and updated Inter-Departmental Business Register; increased estimates by around 500 ktCO2e in Scotland in 2009. • UK HFC model for refrigeration and air conditioning equipment increased the estimates for Scotland in 2009 by 256 ktCO2e; • Energy Supply: (324 ktCO2e increase) • revision of OPG use in petroleum refining and revisions to gas oil allocations to the upstream oil and gas sector. • reduction in estimates for 2009 of emissions from closed coal mines due to updated analysis from the update to closed coal mine emission estimates. • Waste Management: (149 ktCO2e increase) • from revisions to the UK waste model and also revisions to use more DA-specific input data to derive country-specific estimates. • Base Year estimates have been for the following sectors: • Business: (789 kt CO2e increase) • revision to industrial combustion allocation of OPG use in Scotland across the inventory time series and revisions to UK inventory allocations of gas oil. • Agriculture: (194 kt CO2e decrease) • revisions to emission estimates from agricultural soils. • Waste Management: (96 kt CO2e increase) • revisions to the UK GHGI landfill waste model and revisions to the DA landfill waste method to utilise more country-specific data for waste disposals to landfill. • For more details of revisions to DA GHG emission estimates, see Appendix 7.

Uncertainties: By Source • UK (+-16%). • England (+-14%) • Scotland (+-27%), • Wales (+-19%) • Northern Ireland (+-38%) • Scottish uncertainties high: • LULUCF sources • N2O from agric soils • F-Gases: 2010 dispersed and heavily modelled and uncertain: • In 1995, >80% of F-gas industrial sources (manufacture, Aluminium production etc.) • 2010, ~70% refrigeration sources (UK F-gas model) ~ 20% from aerosols From 2012 DA GHGI report: Appendix 1- Table A1.1 Estimated Uncertainties in the DA GHG Inventories: Base Years, 2010 and Trend

Drivers to Scotland / DA GHGI Improvement • Monitoring against targets (Climate Change (Scotland) Act , WG CC Strategy, NI DoE development of targets is on-going), carbon budgets • GHGI data underpins emission projections, policy appraisal, and cost-benefit analysis of policies and programmes • Reduce data uncertainty(overshadows trends in some sectors) • Improve data accuracy & sensitivity:(1) better understanding of opportunities for GHG savings, (2) reflect local policy impacts

Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (1) STRATEGIC ISSUES EU ETS data needed earlier from regulators to feed into DUKES data, as in other MS (benefit to UK GHGI also) • Needs more resources for regulators (SEPA etc.) & stakeholder relationships with DECC ENHANCE SCOTLAND-SPECIFIC DATA / SURVEYS e.g. Agriculture inventory method needs to be more detailed if the GHGI is to be sensitive enough to reflect changes in breeds, feeds, manure management… • Develop more rigorous data capture systems, include local research findings (Emission Factors & Activity Data)

Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (2) DEVELOP NEW DATA MECHANISMS Very little local data on energy use for domestic, commercial, small-scale industry…. • Need more bottom-up data. Develop data reporting requirements and access more information from local fuel suppliers, gas grid operators, oil merchants etc. ENSURE FULL ACCESS TO EXISTING DATA More electronically available data, less paper-based regulation. Establish data supply agreements with key operators / organisations, e.g. to overcome barriers of data confidentiality. • Need more bottom-up data and ability to correctly interpret available data. Recent example is the need to better understand precise fuel types used in major EU ETS facilities, to help resolve data discrepancies with DUKES energy statistics.

Summary of points • Good Scottish GHG inventory = good quality Scottish activity data and emission factors • – access to latest research, access to your data gathering systems for policy reporting, more surveys, better surveys etc. • Transport GHGI data at UK level – resolved to sales data. • Availability of both DUKES-constrained and unconstrained data, • Waste sector model – limitations, assumptions needed (UK and Scotland level) • DON’T have any data specific to methane combustion in flares and gas engines • Very limited energy data • no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. total allocation of gas, coal, oil use is not known • Agricultural statistics • Better EUETS integration needed • Time • Willingness from UK/Scottish stats • Further integration with Policy makers to provide policy-specific data or reporting outputs. • End Users model: Electricity data by sector are very limited for Scotland, Wales, N Ireland, England, so there is high uncertainty on sector allocation.

Devolved Administration GHG inventory Report • http://naei.defra.gov.uk/report_link.php?report_id=709 • Spreadsheet on detailed data • Spreadsheet for Graphs and tables

Justin Goodwin Director Aether 99 Milton Park Abingdon, OX14 4RY UK t: +44 1243 512932 | Mobile: +44 7525 211 475. e:justin.goodwin@aether-uk.com w: www.aether-uk.com w: www.environmenttools.com Glen Thistlethwaite Manager, DA GHG inventory Ricardo-AEA The Gemini Building Fermi Avenue Harwell Didcot OX11 0QR t: +44 (0)870 190 6584 e: glen.thistlethwaite@ricardo-aea.com w: http://www.ricardo-aea.com

Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether)