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Thousand Oaks Dan Hamilton Chuck Maxey Bill Watkins March 2008 Modeling Endogenous variables Exogenous variables Stochastic relationships Assumptions Embedded in larger model Risks Input-Output models Time Series Modeling Assumptions Compare To Baseline Not What Might Be

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slide1

Thousand Oaks

Dan Hamilton

Chuck Maxey

Bill Watkins

March 2008

time series modeling
Endogenous variables

Exogenous variables

Stochastic relationships

Assumptions

Embedded in larger model

Risks

Input-Output models

Time Series Modeling
scenarios
Assumptions

Compare

To Baseline

Not What Might Be

Not Alternative Scenarios

Scenarios
scenarios5
Baseline

United States Recession

California Recession

Land Use Initiative

Amgen

Scenarios
scenarios headline data
Real Output Growth

Job Growth

Population Growth

Real Per-Capita General Funds Revenue

ScenariosHeadline Data
slide7

Baseline

Assumptions

baseline scenario
United States Economy

California Economy

Cyclical Slowdown

Financial Market Stress

Real Estate

Related Retail Sales

Auto Sales

Baseline Scenario
baseline scenario9
Countrywide

Amgen

State Budget

Local Real Estate

Baseline Scenario
slide10

United States GDP Growth

7.2

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.9

1.6

0.8

-0.2

-0.2

-1.9

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

slide11

California GDP Growth

9.9

7.9

7.6

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.8

5.3

4.9

4.6

4.2

4.2

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.0

2.9

2.2

1.9

1.3

1.2

0.6

-0.1

-0.4

-1.0

-1.9

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

slide12

6800

6800

6800

6700

6675

6650

6625

6600

6326

5800

5400

4400

4000

3523

3459

2981

2614

2591

2287

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Amgen Employees

summary
Highest Economic Growth

Highest Population Growth

Slow Growth

Weak Home Prices

Modest Fiscal Challenges

Best Fiscal Outcome

Summary
slide20

Comparison of United States Scenarios

GDP growth rate

7.2

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.0

1.9

1.6

0.8

-0.2

-0.2

-1.0

-1.2

Baseline

US Recession

-1.9

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

summary25
Serious Local Recession

Very Weak Home Prices

Serious Fiscal Challenges

Worst Fiscal Scenario

Summary
slide27

Comparison of California Scenarios

GDP growth rate

Baseline

CA Recession

9.9

7.9

7.6

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.8

5.3

4.9

4.6

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.0

1.9

1.3

1.2

0.6

-0.1

-0.4

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

-1.5

-1.9

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

slide29

Job Growth

Percent change

CA Recession Scenario

8.1

6.8

5.8

2.7

2.5

2.1

1.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-1.1

-1.1

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

summary32
Intermediate Between Baseline and United States Recession

Modest Local Recession

Very Weak Home Prices

Difficult Fiscal Challenges

Summary
land use initiative
Immediate Implementation

Development Slows Immediately

Time Series Analysis vs. Input-Output Analysis

Land Use Initiative
slide35

Real Output Growth

Percent change

Land Use Initiative Scenario

18.0

17.8

8.4

6.4

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.4

4.0

2.1

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.2

0.4

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

slide36

Job Growth

Percent change

Land Use Initiative Scenario

8.1

6.8

5.8

2.7

2.5

2.1

1.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

-0.2

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

slide37

Population Growth

Percent change

Land Use Initiative Scenario

2.7

2.5

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.3

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

-1.1

slide38

Real Per Capita General Fund Revenues

2007 dollars

Land Use Initiative Scenario

642.5

587.5

568.1

564.4

563.7

561.2

560.6

560.5

557.7

556.7

556.5

555.3

544.2

541.2

539.7

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

summary39
Development Collapses

Muted Initial Economic & Fiscal Impacts

Very Slow Economic Growth

Stronger Home Prices

Fiscal & Economic Impacts Increase Over Time

Summary
slide41

Comparison of Amgen Scenarios

Amgen employees

6800

6800

6800

6326

5800

5700

5400

4700

4400

4000

3700

3523

3459

2981

2700

2614

2591

2287

1700

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Amgen Baseline

Amgen Leaves CA

summary46
Local Recession Through Forecast Horizon

Extraordinarily Weak Home Prices

Fiscal Challenges Increase Over Time

Summary
things to remember
We are comparing scenarios

Baseline forecast has risks

One assumption varies

Compare to baseline

Imagine compound scenarios

Things to Remember
slide57

Thank you.

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