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The Housing Market: Is Hope Around the Corner? The U.S. Perspective 2005: Housing construction’s all-time record… Source: U.S. Department of Commerce …driven by home builders, now correcting sharply Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Subprime/Alt-A loans fueled the boom

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The Housing Market:

Is Hope Around the Corner?

2005 housing construction s all time record
2005: Housing construction’s all-time record…

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

driven by home builders now correcting sharply
…driven by home builders, now correcting sharply

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

subprime alt a loans fueled the boom
Subprime/Alt-A loans fueled the boom

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance

home values plummeting back to 2003 prices
Home values plummeting; back to 2003 prices…

Source: Calculated from OFHEO home price series 1976-1987; Case-Schiller national home price series1988+

with slower declines through 2010
…with slower declines through 2010

Source: Calculated from OFHEO home price series 1976-1987; Case-Schiller national home price series1988+; forecast by Witten Advisors

fed actions have cut mortgage rates so
Fed actions have cut mortgage rates, so…

Source: Federal Housing Finance Board

dfw home prices have been much more stable
DFW home prices have been much more stable

Source: Calculated from Case-Schiller home price series; forecast by Witten Advisors

dfw housing starts boomed in mid 2000s too
DFW housing starts boomed in mid-2000s too

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

march 2009 actuals job growth highlights
Employment Growth

12 Months ending March 2009

Austin +3.3k

San Antonio -1.5k

Fort Worth -3.4k

Norfolk -6.8k

Kansas City -11.6k

Atlanta -115.9k

Detroit -135.3k

Phoenix -136.0k

Chicago -142.7k

Los Angeles -149.4k

March 2009 Actuals: Job Growth Highlights

Employment Growth Rate

12 Months ending March 2009

Austin +0.4%

San Antonio –0.2%

Fort Worth –0.4%

Houston –0.6%

Washington DC –0.6%

Norfolk –0.9%

Kansas City –1.1%

Columbus –1.5%

Dallas –1.7%

St. Louis –2.3%

U.S. -3.5%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

local home values should rise modestly in 2010
Local home values should rise modestly in 2010

Source: Calculated from Case-Schiller home price series; forecast by Witten Advisors

is hope around the corner well on the horizon
Is hope around the corner? Well, on the horizon
  • In DFW, home prices stabilize in early 2010 and rise modestly from there
    • Bottom at prices comparable to 2001
  • Nationally, prices soften until early 2011
    • Back to 2000 price levels