The future is your decision
Download
1 / 51

- PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 144 Views
  • Updated On :

“The Future is Your Decision”. PTRA. May 2009 Presented By: Institute for Trend Research Alan Beaulieu alan@ecotrends.org www.ecotrends.org. US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product 3/12 Rates-of-Change. 3. Example: Revenue 12MMT. 12MMT: Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about '' - jaden


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
The future is your decision l.jpg

“The Future is Your Decision”

PTRA

May 2009

Presented By:

Institute for Trend Research

Alan Beaulieu

alan@ecotrends.orgwww.ecotrends.org



Example revenue 12mmt l.jpg

3

Example: Revenue 12MMT

12MMT:

Dec 07

Jan 08

Feb 08

Mar 08

Apr 08

May 08

Jun 08

Jul 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

Oct 08

Nov 08

Dec 08

12MMT = 18.70

12MMT = 18.97

12MMT = 17.54

3MMT = 4.63

3MMT = 5.14

3MMT = 4.98

1.47

1.51

1.65

1.75

1.76

1.64

1.71

1.74

1.54

1.44

1.24

1.26

1.74

3MMT = 4.22

3MMT = 3.95

3MMT = 4.24

8.2%


Rate of change l.jpg
RATE-OF-CHANGE

ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 4/09

ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 4/08

= 1/12

3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 4/09

3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 4/08

= 3/12

ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 4/09

ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 4/08

= 12/12


Us total industrial production index 2002 100 s a l.jpg
US Total Industrial Production Index2002 = 100, S.A.

1/12

12/12

Actual

12MMA

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Us industrial production index forecast through december 2011 annual average index l.jpg
US Industrial Production IndexForecast Through December 2011Annual Average Index

Debt

Interest Rates

Unemployment

Inflation

Credit Crunch

International scope

Elections

Oil

Home Prices

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Slide7 l.jpg

“I sincerely believe ... that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”

Thomas Jefferson – 1816


M2 money supply trillions of 82 l.jpg
M2 Money Supply more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”Trillions of 82$

12/12

1/12

Actual

12MMA

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Crude oil futures prices light sweet per barrel l.jpg
Crude Oil Futures Prices more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”Light & Sweet $ per Barrel

1/12

12/12

Actual

12MMA


Global industrial production indices 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
Global Industrial Production Indices more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”12/12 Rates-of-Change


Demographics l.jpg
Demographics more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”

Winning Demographics

USA ~ 300 Million grows to 400 – 500 Million

India

Indonesia

Australia

Negative Demographics

China

Europe

Japan

Russia

Source: United Nations


Exports by nation percentage of total world exports of goods and services l.jpg
Exports by Nation more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”Percentage of Total World Exports of Goods and Services

Source: IMF

12

12

9.8

10

10

8.9

8

8

7.2

6

6

5.0

4.6

4.3

4

4

3.5

3.1

2

2

0

0

US

Germany

China

Japan

UK

France

Italy

Canada


Goods services as a percent of gdp real w o structures l.jpg
GOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.” (real) w/o structures


Major issues stalking china s future a tiger on steroids l.jpg
Major Issues Stalking China’s Future more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”“A Tiger on Steroids”

  • Banking System* (Relational & ‘Not for Profit’)

  • Legal System* (Court of no appeals)

  • Government Interference/Control*

  • Environmental (Water, Air, Land Pollution)

  • Health Issues

  • Negative Demographics

  • Competition for Resources and ‘Cheap’ Labor – (Philippines, India, Vietnam, Thailand, E. Europe…)

  • Civil Unrest (Pollution, wages, abuse, health care, education…)

  • Increasing US protectionism sentiment (currency)


Us industrial production index to foods production 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production Index to Foods Production more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”12/12 Rates-of-Change

-3.0%

2.9%


Us industrial production to beverage production 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production to Beverage Production more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”12/12 Rates-of-Change

-3.9%


Us industrial production to semiconductor shipments new orders 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production to Semiconductor Shipments New Orders12/12 Rates-of-Change

-5.5%

Struggle toward 0% in 2010


Us industrial production to semiconductors related equipment production 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production to Orders Semiconductors & Related Equipment Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

  • 2.9%

  • 23.9%


Us industrial production to us raw steel production 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production to US Raw Steel Production Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change

-6.8%


Us industrial production to general purpose machinery production 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

-7.8%

-1.4% 8.2%


Nondefense capital goods new orders w o aircraft billions of l.jpg
Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft ProductionBillions of $

3/12

12/12

3MMT

12MMT

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Durable goods new orders to durable goods inventories rates of change l.jpg
Durable Goods New Orders to Durable Goods Inventories ProductionRates-of-Change

Change you can believe in

#1


Us industrial production to corporate bond prices 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

#2

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Purchasing managers index ism l.jpg
Purchasing Managers Index ProductionISM

41.6

#3

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


U s composite leading indicator 1996 100 l.jpg
U.S. Composite Leading Indicator Production1996 = 100

1/12

12/12

Actual

12MMA

#4

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Stock prices index s p 500 1941 43 10 l.jpg
Stock Prices Index ProductionS&P 500,1941 – 43 = 10

1/12

12/12

Actual

#5

12MMA

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report




Pimco total return d pttdx rates of change l.jpg
PIMCO Total Return D (PTTDX) ProductionRates-of-Change






Industrial select sector spdr xli r ates of change l.jpg
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) ProductionRates-of-Change



Federal express stock price rates of change l.jpg
Federal Express Stock Price Production Rates-of-Change


Fedex stock prices to us industrial production 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
FedEx Stock Prices to US Industrial Production Production12/12 Rates-of-Change


Retail sales excluding automobiles trillions of 82 84 l.jpg
Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles ProductionTrillions of 82-84$

3/12

12/12

3MMT

12MMT

#6

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Consumer loan delinquency rate l.jpg
Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate Production

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report



Housing starts millions of units l.jpg
Housing Starts ProductionMillions of Units

3/12

12/12

Don’t forget about long-term demographics

3MMT

12MMT

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Us industrial production to private non residential construction 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
US Industrial Production to Private Non-Residential Construction12/12 Rates-of-Change


Slide43 l.jpg

Find a way to do business in the “counter-cyclical” or largely unaffected areas:

  • Energy

  • Green

  • Water

  • Canada / Exports

  • Higher Education

  • Health Care Practices

  • Leisure

  • Pets

  • Funeral Services

  • Alcohol

  • Security

  • Legal Services (Diversified)


Company w rates of change l.jpg
Company W or largely unaffected areas:Rates-of-Change


Company w to us industrial production 12 12 rates of change l.jpg
Company W to US Industrial Production or largely unaffected areas:12/12 Rates-of-Change

Source: ITR’s EcoTrends®

Monthly Economic Report


Four phases l.jpg
Four Phases or largely unaffected areas:

Expansion

Bankrupt


Slide47 l.jpg

Phase Management Objectives or largely unaffected areas:TM:

Phase Late C - Warning:

  • 1. Begin work force reductions

  • 2. Set budget reduction goals by department

  • Avoid long-term purchase commitments late in the

  • price cycle

  • 4. Concentrate on cash and balance sheet

  • 5. Reduce advertising & inventories

  • De-emphasize commodity/services in anticipation of

  • diminishing margins

  • 7. Weed out inferior products (lose the losers)

  • 8. Encourage distributors to decrease inventory


Slide48 l.jpg

Phase Management Objectives or largely unaffected areas:TM:

Phase Late C - Warning:

9. Identify and overcome any competitive disadvantages

10. Make sure you and the management team are not in denial

11. Cross train key people

12. Watch Accounts Receivable aging

13. Increase the requirements for justification of capital

expenditures

14. Evaluate vendors for strength (don’t get caught honoring their

warranties with no one to accept returned goods).

15. Manage the backlog through pricing and delivery, try to fill the

funnel


Slide49 l.jpg

Phase Management Objectives or largely unaffected areas:TM:

Phase Early D - Recession:

  • Continue force reduction

  • Reduce advertising – be very selective

  • 3. Continue to avoid long-term purchase commitments

  • 4. Review all lease agreements

  • 5. Increase the requirements for justification of capital equipment

  • 6. Eliminate all overtime

  • 7. Reduce overhead labor

  • 8. Combine departments with like capabilities and reduce management

  • 9. Select targets of opportunity where price will get the business

  • 10. Tighten credit policies – increase scrutiny

  • 11. Look for opportunistic purchases

  • 12. Grab market share as your competitor dies


Slide50 l.jpg

Phase Management Objectives or largely unaffected areas:TM:

Phase Late D – Recession Early A - Early Recovery

  • Prepare training programs

  • 2. Negotiate union contracts if possible

  • 3. Develop advertising & marketing programs

  • 4. Enter or renegotiate long-term leases

  • 5. Look for additional vendors

  • 6. Capital expenditures & acquisitions considered in light of market-by-market potential

  • 7. Make acquisitions – use pessimism to your advantage

  • 8. People will be scared – lead with optimism and “can do” attitude


Slide51 l.jpg
“It is always the adventurers who do great things, or largely unaffected areas:not the sovereigns of great empires”- Charles De Montesquieu