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Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005 Contents: Monthly and submonthly features Seasonal mean features Verification of CPC Predictions CPC outlooks 1. Monthly & Submonthly Features

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climate review for february 2005 song yang noaa s climate prediction center 8 march 2005
Climate Reviewfor February 2005Song YangNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center8 March 2005

Contents:Monthly and submonthly featuresSeasonal mean featuresVerification of CPC PredictionsCPC outlooks

slide2

1. Monthly & Submonthly Features

“I don’t understand why meteorologists use the CALENDAR monthly means”

slide4

Weekly T Anomalies

Week 1

Week 3

Week 2

Week 4

slide5

Weekly T’

Europe

20-26 Feb

Weekly T’

Canada

slide7

Weekly P Ratio

Week 1

Week 3

Week 2

Week 4

slide14

SOI

NINO3.4 SST

slide15

Darwin

Tahiti

slide22

12-18

<5th

6-11

19-25

Global Hazards

slide23

Jan. Floods Lasting to Feb.

USA

Indonesia

Guyana

Angola

Mozambique

Madagascar

slide24

Guyana

Long-lasting floods!

slide25

Mozambique

Frequent floods during the past years

slide26

New Floods in February

Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan

Greece

Pakistan

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Colombia

Indonesia

Brazil

Bolivia

Australia

Australian floods: damage of $200 mil

slide28

Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan flood: Affected 135,400 Km2; 2nd most extensive in 2005, after the northeastern Australian flood during 23-28 January

slide29

2. Seasonal Mean Features

Oops! We only had 28 days in this February.

slide32

El Nino Features?

DJF T’

DJF P’

slide37

Feb 2005 TOfficial, Update, & Observations

Off. Up. Change

All Stations: 18.4 41.0 22.6

Non-EC: 40.6 57.1 16.5

% Cov: 45.3 71.8 26.5

OBS

UPD

0.5 Lead

slide38

Feb 2005 POfficial, Update, & Observations

Off. Up. Change

All Stations: 19.7 0.4 -19.3

Non-EC: 52.5 0.8 -51.5

% Cov: 37.6 53.0 15.4

OBS

UPD

0.5 Lead

slide39

All Non-EC % Cov

9.4 14.9 63.2

DJF T Outlook

DJF T Obs

slide40

All Non-EC % Cov

1.3 3.6 35.9

DJF P Outlook

DJF P Obs

slide43

For JJA

Seasonal T & P Outlooks

For MAM

slide45

Drought Outlook

Through May

slide46

Soil Moisture Outlook

Through Mar

Thr Jun

Thr May

Thr Aug

slide47
Acknowledgements Gerry Bell, Yun Fan, Mike Halpert, John Janowiak, Doug LeComte, Wei Shi, Jim Wagner, and Yan Xue