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Business Forecasting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Business Forecasting. Business Forecasting. Business Forecasting. Business Forecasting. Used to try to predict the future Uses two main methods: Qualitative – seeking opinions on which to base decision making Consumer panels, focus groups, etc

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Presentation Transcript
business forecasting3
Business Forecasting
  • Used to try to predict the future
  • Uses two main methods:
  • Qualitative – seeking opinions on which to base decision making
    • Consumer panels, focus groups, etc
  • Quantitative – using statistical data to help inform decision making
    • Identifying trends
    • Moving averages – seasonal, cyclical, random
    • Extrapolation - simple
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Business Forecasting
  • Some businesses use alternative methods:
  • Astrologers!
  • Is such a strategy any betteror worse than using quantitative or qualitative methods?
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Business Forecasting
  • Costs and Benefits of Forecasting:
  • Benefits:
    • Aids decision making
    • Informs planning and resource allocation decisions
    • If data is of high quality, can be accurate
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Business Forecasting
  • Costs:
    • Data not always reliable or accurate
    • Data may be out of date
    • The past is not always a guide to the future
    • Qualitative data may be influenced by peer pressure
    • Difficulty of coping with changes to external factors out of the business’s control – e.g. economic policy, political developments (9/11?), natural disasters – hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.