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1 Jul 2002 – 31 Dec 2002

1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003. 1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003. 1 Jul 2002 – 31 Dec 2002. --full emissions (ref) --aircraft-5% --road-5% --ship-5%. 2000_a01 +. 2000_a02 +. 2000. 2000_b01 +. 2000_b02 +. 2000_a00 +. 2000_c01 +. 2000_c02 +. 2000_d01 +. 2000_d02 +. 1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003.

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1 Jul 2002 – 31 Dec 2002

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  1. 1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003 1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003 1 Jul 2002– 31 Dec 2002 --full emissions (ref)--aircraft-5%--road-5%--ship-5% 2000_a01 + 2000_a02 + 2000 2000_b01 + 2000_b02 + 2000_a00 + 2000_c01 + 2000_c02 + 2000_d01 + 2000_d02 + 1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003 1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003 1 Jul 2002– 31 Dec 2002 1 Jan 2003 – 31 Dec 2003 2025_A1_a02 + 2025_A1_a03 2025 – A1 2025_A1_b02 + 2025_A1_b03 2025_A1_a00 + 2025_A1_a01 + 2025_A1_c02 + 2025_A1_c03 2025_A1_d02 - 2025_A1_d03 2025_B1_a02 + 2025_B1_a03 2025 – B1 2025_B1_b02 + 2025_B1_b03 2025_B1_a00 + 2025_B1_a01 + 2025_B1_c02 - 2025_B1_c03 2025_B1_d02 - 2025_B1_d03 2025_B1_e02 2025_B1_e03 2050_A1_a02 - 2050_A1_a03 2050 – A1 2050_A1_b02 - 2050_A1_b03 2050_A1_a01 + 2050_A1_a00 + 2050_A1_c02 - 2050_A1_c03 2050_A1_d03 2050_A1_d02 - 2050_B1_a02 2050_B1_a03 2050 – B1 2050_B1_b02 2050_B1_b03 2050_B1_a00 + 2050_B1_a01 + 2050_B1_c02 2050_B1_c03 2050_B1_d02 2050_B1_d03 2050_B1_e02 2050_B1_e03

  2. 2050: A1 2025: A1 max: 9.7 ppbv max: 7.6 ppbv 2025: B1 2000 max: 6.5 ppbv max: 6.1 ppbv

  3. 2025: A1 2025: B1 2000 -.3 … 3.1 ppbv -1.1 … 1.6 ppbv Road effect on ozone -.8 … 4.7 ppbv

  4. 2025: A1 2025: B1 2000 -.1 … 4.1 ppbv -1.2 … 3.4 ppbv Ship effect on ozone -2.7 … 3.2 ppbv

  5. Mitigation Aircraft: (BACARE) - need two additional runs (ref with B1 emissions and aircraft BACARE, pert: B1 emissions and 95% aircraft BACARE) Road: (policy failure scenario) - need transport volumes from Griet de Ceuster (TML), then Heike Steller will calculate emission scenario - but: Heike’s contract ends in August, and: ‘light duty truck’ problem has to be resolved first (?)

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