Khassoum Diallo Senior Statistician FICSS/DOS UNHCR New York, December 4-7, 2006

1. Measuring forced displacement in Industrialized Countries: Data sources, methods and challenges in estimating refugee and asylum-seeker numbers Khassoum Diallo Senior Statistician FICSS/DOS UNHCR New York, December 4-7, 2006 http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

2. Outline • Context and Scope • Data sources • Indicators • Estimation methods • Key challenges • Special issues http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

3. CONTEXT: The migration-asylum nexus • Forced and economic migration difficult to separate • Closely related causes • Similar strategies applied by forced and economic migrants • Common responses in receiving countries: • Lack of differentiation between asylum seekers and irregular migrants • Principle of non-refoulement not always applied • UNHCR Strategy: a 10-point plan. http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

4. Scope of forced displacement - Key measurement issues • Involuntary/Unplanned: inherent data collection problems • Movements: none (stateless), internal or international • Cause: conflict or persecution (not natural disasters) • Size: mass flows or individual movements • Phases: displacement, return (post-conflict) • Focus: countries of origin, transit and destination • Duration: long-term and short-term • UNHCR’S CONCEPT OF “POPULATION OF CONCERN” includes refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returned refugees, returned IDPs, Stateless persons and others of concern. http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

5. Scope of forced displacement - facts and figures (end-2005) • Estimated 38 million persons displaced globally • 8.7 million refugees (UNHCR) • 4.2 million Palestinian refugees in Middle East (UNRWA) • ≈ 24 million internally displaced (IDMC) • 21 millions persons of concern to UNHCR, end-2005 http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

6. UNHCR data sources • Main data sources • Government statistics • More than 140 UNHCR country operations • NGOs/Implementing partners • Basis of data • Registration/census • Surveys • Estimates • UNHCR Sources • Monthly asylum application data (36 industrialized countries) • Quarterly Statistical Report (QSR, mainly developing countries with UNHCR operations 120) • Annual Statistical Report (ASR, over 150 countries) • Annual Standard and Indicator Report(SIR, Global coverage, National, camps, urban, returnees 2005) http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

7. Refugee statistics – Stocks and flows • Refugee stock, begin and end-period (year) • Increases • Population dynamic (births, prima facie refugee arrivals, resettlement arrivals) • Legal increases (grants of refugee status to asylum-seekers, spouses, etc.) • Decreases • Population dynamic (deaths, refugee departures (voluntary repatriation, resettlement)) • Legal decreases (cessation of refugee status, naturalization, etc.) http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

8. Measuring refugee stocks and flows: schematic overview Voluntary repatriation Positive decisions (individual) Naturalization Prima facie (group recognition) Cessation REFUGEE POPULATION Resettlement arrivals Resettlement departures Births Deaths Other increases/ decreases http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

9. With: PD: Positive decisions on individual applications during a specific year y PF: Prima Facie arrivals during the year RA: Resettlement arrivals during the year OI: Other increases during the year NR: Number of naturalized refugees during the year VR: Number of voluntarily repatriated refugees during the year RD: Resettlement departures during the year OD: Other decreases during the year X Reference year y=years c=Countries of origin k=Estimate duration before naturalization (5 or 10 years in industrialized countries n= Number of countries of origin, including stateless persons Estimating refugee population: If no refugee data / register available http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

10. Estimating refugee population in 36 industrialized countries • With: • PD: Positive decisions on individual applications during a specific year y • RA: Resettlement arrivals during the year • NR: Number of naturalized refugees during the year • X: Reference year • y=years • c=Countries of origin • k=Estimate duration before naturalization (5 or 10 years in industrialized countries • n= Number of countries of origin, including stateless persons. Assumptions: Naturalization of refugees after 5 years of residence in Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand and after 10 years elsewhere. The 10 year duration will be applied for the USA next year. http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

11. Asylum statistics: Estimation of recognition rates • Based on decisions • RRR: Refugee recognition rate • TRR Total recognition rate • CR: Number of refugees recognized under 1951 convention • HR: Number of asylum seekers grated refugee status on temporary/humanitarian basis • RJ Number of rejected cases during the year • c: Countries of origin • y: Reference Year Other indicators: Pending cases Percentage of otherwise closed cases http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

12. Asylum statistics: indicators for selected industrialized countries http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

13. Key challenges • Scope and Definitions • Asylum migration nexus • Terminology: Who is a refugee? (1951Conv./ humanitarian; long-term resident; rejected asylum-seekers, …) • Data sources and triangulation • Coverage: Key information are missing • Register updating • Sources for triangulation • Data quality • Timeliness in rapidly changing situations • Comparability • Compliance with recommendations (UN, UNECE, UNHCR) • Trends: Real or not (impact of regulations, definition and scope, data coverage) • Human resources and data protection • Skills and training • Uses of data for informed decision making • Data Protection and confidentiality http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

14. Good practices - Zambia • Purpose of immigration in 2000 population and housing census (UNHCR funded) • If foreigner, why come to this country? • Work • Study • Asylum • Family reunification • Work • Study • Asylum http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

15. Recommendations on international migration statistics • The 1998 revision of UN recommendations • Purpose of migration (work, family reunification, asylum, study, …) • Use of existing national data sources • UNECE Recommendations • UNHCR recommendation on Registration (EXecutive COMmittee Conclusion No. 91) • Individual basis • Confidentiality • Identity (photograph) • Data elements: name, sex, DOB, relation to HoH, origin, current location, special needs, etc. http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org

16. Expectations • Refugee and asylum-seekers, key category of international migration • Breakdown (age, sex, location) wherever possible • Stateless persons as a specific category • Terminology: Many states are very sensitive on forced displacement issues • Data sharing http://www.unhcr.org/statistics stats@unhcr.org