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Part 1 Plans, Programs, and the Board of Pensions Balanced Investment Portfolio. 2011 Multiple Investment Programs. Independent plans/programs Diverse funding sources Distinct portfolios Separate accounting. Dues-Based Programs. 31.5\% Dues. Pension, Death and Disability. Medical.

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2011 multiple investment programs
2011 Multiple Investment Programs
  • Independent plans/programs
  • Diverse funding sources
  • Distinct portfolios
  • Separate accounting
slide3
Dues-Based Programs

31.5% Dues

Pension, Death

and Disability

Medical

Board of Pensions

19.5% Dues

12% Dues

Benefit Payments to Members

Short-term

Investments

Short-term

Investments

Board of Pensions Balanced Investment Portfolio

slide4
Investment Structure

U.S. Stocks

International

Stocks

Fixed Income

Alternatives

Pension

Death & Disability

Assistance Programs

Endowment

Restricted Gifts/Other Programs

Board of Pensions

Balanced Investment

Portfolio

slide5
A Portfolio that Reflects the Values of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)
  • Two voting members on Mission Responsibility Through Investment (MRTI)
  • Divestment program of the PCUSA
  • Shareholder resolutions
  • Proactive proxy voting
slide8
2010 Global Market Performance

Treasuries sell off

Long Treasury bonds rally

2009 equity rally continues

Russell 3000 peaks on 4/23/10

19%

17%

17%

13%

9%

8%

Commodities lead huge risk asset rally

Equity markets sell off

~ All indices include dividends; high yield bonds and long U.S. Treasuries use ETF index values ~

slide9
2010 U.S. Equity Market Performance

Small stocks surge

Small value stocks gain 22%

Small growth stocks up 34% since August 31

29%

Large stocks perform better during selloff

25%

17%

16%

~ All indices include dividends; high yield bonds and long U.S. Treasuries use ETF index values ~

returns of market indices and board of pensions balanced investment portfolio 2010
Returns of Market Indices and Board of Pensions Balanced Investment Portfolio2010

Source: MSCI (net)

slide12
Part 3: A Time Traveler

Back 200

Forward 50

Proverbs, Shakespeare, Malthus, Smith, and Butterfly Wings

Interconnected Global Markets

in 2011

demographics why it matters
Demographics -Why It Matters

D- Drinking water, discount rates, debts, deficits

E-Economic growth, emerging markets, social equality

M- Mortality, longevity risk, mega-cities

O- Organizational structure and behaviors, outsourcing

G- Geopolitical risks, genomics, global labor force

R- Retirement, real estate, resource allocation

A- Asset prices, asset allocation

P- Pensions, pharmaceuticals

H- Health, housing

I- Inflation, information technology, infrastructure

C- Climate, countries, commodities, communications

S- Societal structures, investment sectors

slide15
Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act 1, Scene 3

“Neither a borrower nor a lender be,

For loan oft loses both itself and friend,

And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.”

slide16
Malthus

Food, Glorious Food

Smith

Debt, Devious Debt

slide17
The Outlook for the Future of Food

“The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.”

The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus,

An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

slide18
Global Yield Growth

Source: The Economist

slide19
Price Change in Selected Commodities

One year ended February 28, 2011

US Stocks:

23%

US Bonds:

5%

Source: Bloomberg

slide20
Food, Revolutionary Food

“Let them eat cake”

Attributed to Marie-Antoinette, 1791

slide21
Impact of Food on Inflation

Source: Bridgewater

slide22
The Outlook for the Future of Debt

“Ordinary expenses ought to be equal to ordinary revenue, and it is well if it does not frequently exceed it.”

Adam Smith, Philosopher

Wealth of Nations, 1776

sovereign debt and deficits year end 2010
Sovereign Debt and DeficitsYear end 2010

Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Colchester

slide24
Sovereign Debt Risk

Improved

Worsened

Source: The Economist

slide25
Sovereign Debt and GDP

(Bubble size illustrates population)

Poorer

Richer

More debt

Japan

Greece

Italy

Turkey

U.S.

Singapore

India

Ireland

Egypt

France

Portugal

Brazil

Germany

Vietnam

Philippines

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Ethiopia

Indonesia

UK

Netherlands

Malaysia

Norway

Spain

Poland

Denmark

Argentina

Mexico

Canada

Taiwan

Saudi

Venezuela

Hong Kong

Less debt

Australia

S Korea

Russia

Iran

Nigeria

Algeria

China

South Africa

Source: CIA World Factbook, 2010 levels

slide26
The Butterfly Effect

“The flapping of a butterfly’s wings might create a minuscule disturbance that, in the chaotic motion of the atmosphere…change the large scale atmospheric motion.”

Edward Lorenz,

Meteorologist

Chaos Theory, 1963

slide27
Global Population Growth through a Presbyterian Historical Lens

UPCUSA forms

1958

Book of Confessions

1967

Reunion

PCUSA 1983

John Calvin born

1509

Fund for

Pious Uses

1717

First GA

Phila, PA

Global population (billions)

1789

Moses born

c1250 BC

North-South

split

GreatPyramids

c2500 BC

Birth of

Christ

1861

Rome

c750 BC

Noah born

c3000 BC

1 AD

1000

1750 - 1900

1950 - 2010

70000 BC – 500 BC

Source: Wikipedia, Presbyterian Historical Society, spiritrestoration.org

slide28
Global Population Growth

20 yrs

14 yrs

12 yrs

12 yrs

13 yrs

14 yrs

33 years

123 years

1804

1927

1960

74

87

99

2011

25(E)

45(E)

Source: Wikipedia

slide29
Gross Domestic Product

Per Capita Levels and 5-Year Growth

2004 - 2009

Source: World Bank, Purchasing Power Parity Basis

slide30
The World’s Most Populated Countries - 2010

Rest of World

Russia

Bangladesh

Japan

Nigeria

Brazil

Pakistan

U.S.

India

Indonesia

The ten most populated countries account for almost 60% of the world’s nearly 7 billion people

China

Source: Wikipedia

slide31
The World’s Most Populated Countries - 2050

Rest of World

Ethiopia

Congo

Bangladesh

Brazil

Nigeria

Indonesia

U.S.

Pakistan

China

By 2050, the ten most populated countries are expected to account for about 55% of the world’s

more than 9 billion people.

India

Source: World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

slide32
Global Population by Region

Global population (billions)

Source: UN, 2008 estimates

slide33
Estimated Population Growth

2000 to 2050

Global population growth

Source: UN, 2008 estimates

slide35
The Investing Cycle

Point of maximum financial risk

Euphoria

Anxiety

Thrill

Denial

Point of maximum financial opportunity

Fear

Excitement

Desperation

Optimism

Optimism

Panic

Relief

Hope

Capitulation

Depression

Despondency

january 1 2001 december 31 2010 ten year annualized investment returns
January 1, 2001-December 31, 2010Ten-Year Annualized Investment Returns

%

  • U.S. Large Growth Stocks 0.0
  • S&P 500 Stock Index 1.4
  • Developed Mkts Int’l Stocks 3.9
  • U.S. Govt and Corp Bonds 5.8
  • U.S. Small Value Stocks 8.4
  • Emerging Markets Bonds 10.9
  • Emerging Markets Stocks 16.2
slide37
The Importance of Diversification

Data: S&P 500, DJ U.S. Completion TSM, MSCI EAFE, MSCI EM, Barclays Capital Government/Credit

slide38
Where are We Today?

The Outlook for 2011

  • Challenging year for investors
    • Fragile U.S. economy
    • Global economic and political instability
    • Natural disasters of epic proportions
  • Interest rates and inflation will increase
slide39
Outlook for 2011
  • Selective investments in credit and distressed debt remain attractive
  • U.S. stocks should outperform international developed markets
  • Emerging market stocks and bonds will provide superior long-term returns
  • Inflation protection and real return strategies continue to be implemented
slide40
1939 - A Great Church Now Maintains

A Great Pension Program

The Annual Report of the Board of Pensions of the Presbyterian Church in the United States of America 1939

2011 - Secure Benefits in Uncertain Times

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