Proposed NAME Forecast Products. Erik Pytlak NOAA/NWS Tucson, AZ. How did we get here?. Financial help NOAA/NWS Office of International Activities NOAA/NWS/CPC NOAA OGP A lot of great advice José Meitín (JOSS, BAMEX, etc.) Louisa Nance (PACJET) Bob Maddox (SWAMP)
NOAA/NWS Tucson, AZ
Date(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:45
Forecasters: Pytlak (FOC)/Handel (CPC)
Submitted at(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:45
Day 3-5 and Day 6-10 Outlook:
Valid 01 Aug 12Z – 07 Aug 12Z:
Day 3-5: No real long-term changes are expected. Upper subtropical high over the U.S. southern Plains will continue to feed a series of IVs across central Tier I, with WTs clipping southern Tier I. SMN analyses this morning show at least 6 WTs lined up from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the central Atlantic. Any of these WTs could develop into tropical cyclones with 400-200mb shear over the eastern Pacific expected to remain low. The northwest quarter of Tier I (Zones 3 and 5) are the least likely areas to receive significant thunderstorm activity due to their close proximity to the upper high center. Off the Baja coast, the persistent inverted trough (IV#8), which is more of an extension of the large-scale and seasonal subtropical trough, shows no signs of weakening or being lifted north.
Day 6-10: There is some indication that a weak phase of the MJO will propagate out of the central Pacific and into the NAM region. GFS ensembles at 168 hrs indicate a slight breakdown in the upper ridge over the central U.S.(image 1), which would suggest the possibility of westerly flow impingement over northern Tier-I. See image 2 for a the 5- and 30-day moving MJO indices.