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Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI)

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Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI)

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  1. Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI) Thompson G. Pace, PE U.S. EPA Research Triangle Park, NC

  2. Overview of this Presentation • Brief Perspective on The US’s PM Problems • The US’s National Emissions Inventory • Current Practices • Changes being considered / implemented • Specific source categories (and process-based model development) • Wildland Fires • Fugitive Dust • Mobile Sources • Ammonia

  3. PM2.5 Ambient Composition

  4. Total Carbon – Directly Emitted PM2.5(National Emissions ~ 2M TPY)

  5. SO2 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate Formation(National Emissions ~ 17.6 M TPY)

  6. NH3 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate & Nitrate(National Emissions ~ 4.8 M TPY)

  7. Crustal Materials (Mainly Fugitive Dust) • PM2.5 is usually < 1 ug/m3 annual average • Exception: Most of Southwest, California • Main Sources: • Unpaved roads • Agricultural tilling • Construction • Windblown dust • Fly ash • Large emissions – low transportable fraction

  8. NEI Development ~ Cooperative, Iterative

  9. Changes to NEI Preparation Process • 12 month Schedule is being considered • (now 36 months) • Improving the Technical Infrastructure • Develop Improved Tools • Data Acquisition, Estimation & Distribution • New technologies must be used • GIS • Process Models • Remote Sensing • PM2.5 Program Priorities • Wildland Fires, Fugitive Dust, Mobile Sources & Ammonia

  10. Fire Occurrence Fire Emissions Process Modeling Fuel Type and Loading Fuel Consumption Emissions Production Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring

  11. Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation • Fire Occurrence Databases • Ground-based data systems • Remote Sensing

  12. Comparison of Ground Reported and Remote Sensed Fires August 1, 2001

  13. Potential Role(s) for Remote Sensing in Fire Emissions Estimation and Smoke Transport • Fire Identification & Characterization • Time & date, location, size • Fuel Characterization (Fuel Type & Loading) • Default maps (resolution, specificity) • Natural alterations to “default” conditions • Fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard • Fuel moisture • Emissions Production • Heat release & emissions • Plume initial conditions • Transport & transformation • Terrain • Impacted populations • Ground-truthing • Actual vs modeled plume path • fixed networks & portable monitoring Re *

  14. Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation • Fire Occurrence Databases • Ground-based data systems • Remote Sensing • Fire Emissions Modeling • AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories • Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2) • Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM • New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM • New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS

  15. Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation • Fire Occurrence Databases • Ground-based data systems • Remote Sensing • Fire Emissions Modeling • AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories • Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2) • Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM • New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM • New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS • BlueSky system • BlueSky-EM (emissions) • RAINS • Grid-model Linkage

  16. BlueSkyRAINS ~ Output Products

  17. Legend BSR Fire HMS Fire Example Fire Trajectories for August 1, 2004 [BlueSkyRAINS (BSR) and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) Disagree] Trajectories by Remote Sensing (AM & PM) Trajectories by BSR Modeling(Every 3 Hr)

  18. Fugitive Dust • Technical Issues • Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples • PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio • Removal of dust near the source (< 100m)

  19. Fugitive Dust • Technical Issues • Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples • PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio • Removal of dust near the source (< 100m) • Process-based Emissions Model (future) • Soil / road surface silt content • Soil moisture • Rainfall • Crop cover • Ground cover • Wind speed

  20. Other PM Priority Source Categories • Mobile Sources • Mobile 6 & NONROAD (2004 version) • NMIM, consolidated model w/ county database • Temperature, barometric pressure • Fuel properties • Vehicle Kilometers Traveled • Complete rework of models forthcoming • Multi-scale mOtor Vehicle & equipment Emissions System • Ammonia • Process-based model under development by RPO’s • Condensibles • Including condensibles increased PM2.5 significantly

  21. In Summary • NEI Development Schedule • We believe the US can shorten its NEI development schedule by factor of 2 or 3 • Better utilization of emerging technologies • GIS, • Remote Sensing, • Process-based emissions models • Priority categories for PM • Wildland Fires • Fugitive Dust • Mobile Sources • Ammonia • Condensibles