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Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI)

Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI). Thompson G. Pace, PE U.S. EPA Research Triangle Park, NC. Overview of this Presentation. Brief Perspective on The US’s PM Problems The US’s National Emissions Inventory Current Practices Changes being considered / implemented

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Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI)

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  1. Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI) Thompson G. Pace, PE U.S. EPA Research Triangle Park, NC

  2. Overview of this Presentation • Brief Perspective on The US’s PM Problems • The US’s National Emissions Inventory • Current Practices • Changes being considered / implemented • Specific source categories (and process-based model development) • Wildland Fires • Fugitive Dust • Mobile Sources • Ammonia

  3. PM2.5 Ambient Composition

  4. Total Carbon – Directly Emitted PM2.5(National Emissions ~ 2M TPY)

  5. SO2 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate Formation(National Emissions ~ 17.6 M TPY)

  6. NH3 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate & Nitrate(National Emissions ~ 4.8 M TPY)

  7. Crustal Materials (Mainly Fugitive Dust) • PM2.5 is usually < 1 ug/m3 annual average • Exception: Most of Southwest, California • Main Sources: • Unpaved roads • Agricultural tilling • Construction • Windblown dust • Fly ash • Large emissions – low transportable fraction

  8. NEI Development ~ Cooperative, Iterative

  9. Changes to NEI Preparation Process • 12 month Schedule is being considered • (now 36 months) • Improving the Technical Infrastructure • Develop Improved Tools • Data Acquisition, Estimation & Distribution • New technologies must be used • GIS • Process Models • Remote Sensing • PM2.5 Program Priorities • Wildland Fires, Fugitive Dust, Mobile Sources & Ammonia

  10. Fire Occurrence Fire Emissions Process Modeling Fuel Type and Loading Fuel Consumption Emissions Production Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring

  11. Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation • Fire Occurrence Databases • Ground-based data systems • Remote Sensing

  12. Comparison of Ground Reported and Remote Sensed Fires August 1, 2001

  13. Potential Role(s) for Remote Sensing in Fire Emissions Estimation and Smoke Transport • Fire Identification & Characterization • Time & date, location, size • Fuel Characterization (Fuel Type & Loading) • Default maps (resolution, specificity) • Natural alterations to “default” conditions • Fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard • Fuel moisture • Emissions Production • Heat release & emissions • Plume initial conditions • Transport & transformation • Terrain • Impacted populations • Ground-truthing • Actual vs modeled plume path • fixed networks & portable monitoring Re *

  14. Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation • Fire Occurrence Databases • Ground-based data systems • Remote Sensing • Fire Emissions Modeling • AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories • Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2) • Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM • New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM • New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS

  15. Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation • Fire Occurrence Databases • Ground-based data systems • Remote Sensing • Fire Emissions Modeling • AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories • Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2) • Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM • New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM • New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS • BlueSky system • BlueSky-EM (emissions) • RAINS • Grid-model Linkage

  16. BlueSkyRAINS ~ Output Products

  17. Legend BSR Fire HMS Fire Example Fire Trajectories for August 1, 2004 [BlueSkyRAINS (BSR) and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) Disagree] Trajectories by Remote Sensing (AM & PM) Trajectories by BSR Modeling(Every 3 Hr)

  18. Fugitive Dust • Technical Issues • Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples • PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio • Removal of dust near the source (< 100m)

  19. Fugitive Dust • Technical Issues • Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples • PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio • Removal of dust near the source (< 100m) • Process-based Emissions Model (future) • Soil / road surface silt content • Soil moisture • Rainfall • Crop cover • Ground cover • Wind speed

  20. Other PM Priority Source Categories • Mobile Sources • Mobile 6 & NONROAD (2004 version) • NMIM, consolidated model w/ county database • Temperature, barometric pressure • Fuel properties • Vehicle Kilometers Traveled • Complete rework of models forthcoming • Multi-scale mOtor Vehicle & equipment Emissions System • Ammonia • Process-based model under development by RPO’s • Condensibles • Including condensibles increased PM2.5 significantly

  21. In Summary • NEI Development Schedule • We believe the US can shorten its NEI development schedule by factor of 2 or 3 • Better utilization of emerging technologies • GIS, • Remote Sensing, • Process-based emissions models • Priority categories for PM • Wildland Fires • Fugitive Dust • Mobile Sources • Ammonia • Condensibles

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