Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change. Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley (email@example.com)
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Colette L. Heald
NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow
University of California, Berkeley
Daven Henze,Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque,Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
July 9, 2007
by OH, O3, NO3
Fossil Fuel Biomass
[Zhang et al., in press]
Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie globally more than sulfate
Community Land Model (CLM3)
Datasets: Lawrence and Chase 
Feddema et al. 
Plant Functional Types
[Guenther et al., 1995; 2006]
Community Atmospheric Model
2-product model from oxidation of:
[Chung and Seinfeld, 2002]
[Henze and Seinfeld, 2006]
[Henze et al., 2007]
Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the
longest lived dominates burden
22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8°C)
A1B: 72 TgC/yr
A2: 96 TgC/yr
A1B: 20 TgC/yr
A2: 35 TgC/yr
Large increases predicted, especially over Asia
Feddema et al.  Projections
Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14%
Climate and Emission: +36%
Anthropogenic Land-use: -14%
Natural Vegetation: ??
South America is the largest SOA source in present-day but significant growth expected for Asia by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).
SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions.
SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx ↓
but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics.
Present-Day Burden: 0.5-0.7 TgS1
Projection:↓ by > 50% by 2100?
Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgC
Andreae et al.  suggest ↓ sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate
1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000]