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Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change. Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley (heald@atmos.berkeley.edu)

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Colette l heald noaa climate and global change postdoctoral fellow

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change

Colette L. Heald

NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow

University of California, Berkeley

(heald@atmos.berkeley.edu)

Daven Henze,Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque,Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld

International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics

July 9, 2007


Organic carbon aerosol
ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change

Secondary

Organic

Aerosol

Semi-

Volatiles

Partitioning (non-linear)

Primary

Organic

Aerosol

Oxidation

by OH, O3, NO3

Monoterpenes

Sesquiterpenes

Aromatics

Isoprene

Direct

Emission

Fossil Fuel Biomass

Burning

BIOGENIC SOURCES

ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES


Why we shouldn t focus exclusively on sulfate
WHY WE SHOULDN’T FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON SULFATE… concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change

Sulfate

Organics

[Zhang et al., in press]

Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie  globally more than sulfate


Modeling framework
MODELING FRAMEWORK concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change

Community Land Model (CLM3)

Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007]

Feddema et al. [2007]

LAI (MODIS)

Plant Functional Types

Soil moisture

Vegetation Temperature

BVOC Algorithms

[Guenther et al., 1995; 2006]

Monterpenes: GEIA

Isoprene: MEGAN

Vegetation

Meteorology

BVOC Emissions

Radiation

Precipitation

Community Atmospheric Model

(CAM3)

Chemistry

Transport

Radiation

SOA production

2-product model from oxidation of:

1. Monoterpenes

[Chung and Seinfeld, 2002]

2. Isoprene

[Henze and Seinfeld, 2006]

3. Aromatics

[Henze et al., 2007]

Anthropogenic

Emissions,

GHG concentrations,

SST


Present day 2000 soa
PRESENT-DAY (2000) SOA concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change

Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the

longest lived  dominates burden


Present projected biogenic emissions
PRESENT/PROJECTED BIOGENIC EMISSIONS concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change

2100:

607 TgC/yr

496 TgC/yr

2100:

51 TgC/yr

43 TgC/yr

22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8°C)


Present projected anthropogenic emissions
PRESENT/PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change

2100:

A1B: 72 TgC/yr

A2: 96 TgC/yr

45 TgC/yr

2100:

A1B: 20 TgC/yr

A2: 35 TgC/yr

16 TgC/yr

Large increases predicted, especially over Asia


Changes in total soa concentrations in 2100 a1b from present day
CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY

ΔAnthropogenic

Emissions

ΔBiogenic

Emissions

ΔClimate

Surface SOA

Zonal SOA

Global Burden

+7%

+6%

+26%


Changes in soa concentrations in 2100 from present day due to land use change a2
CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)

Feddema et al. [2007] Projections

SOA (TOTAL)

BVOC emissions

Isoprene

Monoterpenes

Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14%


Total effect of emissions climate on soa
TOTAL EFFECT OF EMISSIONS & CLIMATE ON SOA TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)

TOTAL SOA

Climate and Emission: +36%

Anthropogenic Land-use: -14%

Natural Vegetation: ??


Soa sensitivity simulations regional soa sources
SOA SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS: TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)REGIONAL SOA SOURCES

South America is the largest SOA source in present-day but significant growth expected for Asia by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).


Changes to soa production efficiency
CHANGES TO SOA PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)

SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions.

2100-2000

2000

Surface

NO/HO2

SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx ↓

but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics.


Increasing soa climate implications
INCREASING SOA: CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS? TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)

SULFATE

Present-Day Burden: 0.5-0.7 TgS1

Projection:↓ by > 50% by 2100?

SOA

SOA Burden

Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgC

Projection: 36%↑

Andreae et al. [2005] suggest ↓ sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate

1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000]