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Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation

Dr. Steffen Gackstatter Arthur D. Little, Inc. Acorn Park Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140-2390 U.S.A. Internet: www.arthurdlittle.com Reference: 73069. Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation.

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Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation

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  1. Dr. Steffen Gackstatter Arthur D. Little, Inc.Acorn ParkCambridge, Massachusetts 02140-2390 U.S.A. Internet: www.arthurdlittle.com Reference: 73069 Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation Conference on Estimating the Benefits of Government-Sponsored Energy R&D Washington, DC March 5, 2002

  2. 4 Improvements 2 Scenarios Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation Background A key question at the end of this workshop is how to use the discussed benefit estimates in R&D program planning and evaluation. DOE Targeted Benefits1 Key Questions Possible Answers 1 How can benefits without government be estimated (baseline)? • Regression analysis • Expert opinions • Technology roadmap 3 2 What extreme scenarios should be considered? • Industry aligned with benefits due to regulations or consumer pressure • Controversial benefits prioritized due to regression Day 1 Illustrative With Government 3 How can benefits with government influence be estimated? • Ask industry for impact • Build ratio of DOE/industry investment Positive Benefits Scenario 1 Baseline 4 What kind of improvements are possible? • Shorter development time of beneficial technologies • Better technology results • New/different technology developments made possible Day 2 Negative Benefits Scenario 2002 Time 1See strategic program (e.g., energy savings, reduced emissions, power reliability, economics) Without Government 5 How can benefit estimates be used? • Integration with GPRA • Planning and evaluation sga/panel speech 030502.ppt

  3. Estimated Benefits Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation DOE Process Benefit estimates can have a major influence on the DOE program planning and evaluation process. • Benefit estimates… • Validate vision and strategic objectives • Measure the value of single projects and combined project portfolios • Create transparency regarding the success of DOE programs • Demonstrate credibility of programs (internally and externally) • Be integrated in GPRA, which is currently focused on: • energy savings • emissions reductions Strategic Plan (3/5 Years) Illustrative Portfolio Plan & Project Selection (Continuous) GPRA Evaluation (Annual) sga/panel speech 030502.ppt

  4. Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation Scenarios The value of estimated benefits for planning and evaluation purposes is significantly impacted by the development of the energy environment. Environmental Plentiful Low Cost Energy Technology-based High Growth Economic Stagnation Characteristics Future Tightening Fuels Markets • The future environment impacting energy will not likely be “business as usual” • Driving forces will determine the future scenario depending on their impact and uncertainty • In each scenario the value of the estimated benefits will vary depending on the priorities of energy related politics Global Supply Disruption Driving Forces CurrentReality sga/panel speech 030502.ppt

  5. Using Estimates of Benefits in R&D Program Planning and Evaluation Portfolio Issues From a portfolio perspective it is important to think broader than just about benefit estimates. Guiding Principles Criteria Benefit Estimates Impact • Energy Savings • Emissions Reductions • Infrastructure Benefits • Other Benefits Other Portfolio Issues Diversity • Dollars per Program • R&D versus Deployment Risk • Technical Risk • Commercial Risk Time • Short-Term versus Long-Term sga/panel speech 030502.ppt

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