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Maryland’s Changing Demographics. Leadership Challenge XV June 13, 2006 Presented by Mark Goldstein Maryland Department of Planning. Demographic Topics. Statewide look at pop change by race & Hispanic Origin Foreign born population Pop change by race & Hispanic origin by jurisdiction

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maryland s changing demographics

Maryland’s Changing Demographics

Leadership Challenge XV

June 13, 2006

Presented by

Mark Goldstein

Maryland Department of Planning

demographic topics
Demographic Topics
  • Statewide look at pop change by race & Hispanic Origin
  • Foreign born population
  • Pop change by race & Hispanic origin by jurisdiction
  • Age data
data sources
Data Sources
  • Decennial Census Data, 1990 & 2000
  • Post 2000 Census Population Estimates, 2000 – 2004
data definition
Data Definition
  • Minority is everyone who is NOT non-Hispanic White
  • Includes African Americans, Asians & Pacific Islanders, American Indians, Multi-Race and Hispanics
  • Hispanics are an ETHNIC and not a RACIAL minority. Hispanics can be of any race, but in Maryland most (over 90%) are white
growth in non hispanic white minority population in maryland 1980 1990
Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland,1980-1990

64%

36%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 1990 MARS and 2000 Modified Race data

growth in non hispanic white minority population in maryland 1990 2000
Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland, 1990 - 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 1990 MARS and 2000 Modified Race data

growth in non hispanic white minority population in maryland 2000 2004
Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland, 2000 - 2004

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 2000 Modified Race data & population estimates, 2004

net domestic migration for maryland 1995 2000
Net Domestic Migration For Maryland, 1995 - 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Dept of Planning, Planning Data Services from Census 2000 Migration DVD

population change for maryland by race and hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Maryland by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000 *

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for maryland by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Maryland by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

maryland population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

maryland population share by race hispanic origin 2000
Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 2000 MARs

maryland population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

foreign born population
Foreign Born Population
  • Totals Over the Decades
  • Distribution
  • Impact on Population Growth
  • Origin of the Foreign Born
  • Ability to Speak English
foreign born entering maryland by decade
Foreign-Born Entering Maryland by Decade

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

foreign born entering maryland by decade18
Foreign-Born Entering Maryland by Decade*

213,500

* For 2000s, estimates for 2000-2004 and extrapolation to 2010

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

total foreign born in maryland
Total Foreign Born in Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from Decennial Census data and 2004 ACS

foreign born as a pct of total population in maryland
Foreign Born as a Pct of Total Population in Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Decennial Census and ACS

where foreign born settled during the 1990s
Where Foreign-Born Settled During the 1990s

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

where foreign born settled during the 1980s
Where Foreign-Born Settled During the 1980s

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

rest of the 1980s
“Rest” of the 1980s

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

rest of the 1990s
“Rest” of the 1990s

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

slide25

Total Foreign Born in Maryland by Jurisdiction – 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

slide26

Foreign Born as a Percent of Total Population – 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

components of population change 1990 2000 maryland
Components of Population Change, 1990 – 2000, Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

components of population change 1990 2000 maryland28
Components of Population Change, 1990 – 2000, Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

components of population change for montgomery county 1990 2000
Components of Population Change for Montgomery County, 1990 – 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

components of population change for prince george s county 1990 2000
Components of Population Change for PrinceGeorge’sCounty, 1990 – 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

components of population change for baltimore county 1990 2000
Components of Population Change for Baltimore County, 1990 – 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

components of population change for howard county 1990 2000
Components of Population Change for Howard County, 1990 – 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

components of migration for baltimore city 1990 2000
Components of Migration for Baltimore City, 1990 – 2000

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

origin of the foreign born in maryland entered 1990 2000
Origin of the Foreign Born in Maryland (Entered 1990 – 2000)

34.8%

33.0%

16.2%

14.0%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

country of origin for the foreign born in maryland
Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

country of origin for the foreign born in maryland cont
Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Maryland (cont.)

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

origin of the foreign born in montgomery entered 1990 2000
Origin of the Foreign Born in Montgomery (Entered 1990 – 2000)

35.6%

34.8%

14.8%

13.1%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

country of origin for the foreign born in montgomery county
Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Montgomery County

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

origin of the foreign born in prince george s entered 1990 2000
Origin of the Foreign Born in Prince George’s (Entered 1990 – 2000)

48.0%

25.2%

21.4%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

country of origin for the foreign born in prince george s county
Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Prince George’s County

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

origin of the foreign born in baltimore county entered 1990 2000
Origin of the Foreign Born in Baltimore County (Entered 1990 – 2000)

38.8%

29.1%

16.8%

13.4%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

country of origin for the foreign born in baltimore county
Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Baltimore County

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

origin of the foreign born in howard county entered 1990 2000
Origin of the Foreign Born in Howard County (Entered 1990 – 2000)

52.2%

18.2%

16.5%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

country of origin for the foreign born in howard county
Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Howard County

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

number in maryland who speak english not well or not at all
Number in Maryland Who Speak English “Not Well or Not at All”

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

maryland residents who speak english not well or not at all by language spoken at home
Maryland Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home

111,256 total

53.3%

24.3%

19.4%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

maryland residents who speak english not well or not at all by language spoken at home47
Maryland Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

montgomery co residents who speak english not well or not at all by language spoken at home
Montgomery Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home

52.8%

28.3%

16.2%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

montgomery co residents who speak english not well or not at all by language spoken at home49
Montgomery Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

prince george s co residents who speak english not well or not at all by language spoken at home
Prince George’s Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home

73.3%

14.0%

8.8%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

baltimore co residents who speak english not well or not at all by language spoken at home
Baltimore Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home

40.4%

28.6%

27.0%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

baltimore co residents who speak english not well or not at all by language spoken at home52
Baltimore Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

population change by race and hispanic origin for jurisdictions
Population Change by Race and Hispanic Origin for Jurisdictions
  • Total Change
    • 1990 – 2000
    • 2000 - 2004
  • Share of Total Pop
    • 1990
    • 2004
population change for montgomery co by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Montgomery Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for montgomery co by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Montgomery Co. by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

montgomery population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

montgomery population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

population change for prince george s co by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Prince George’s Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

Influence of migration from Wash, D.C.

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for prince george s co by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Prince George’s Co. by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

Continued loss of white pop; relatively stronger growth in Hispanics – nearly equal to previous 10-yr. growth

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

prince george s population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Prince George’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

prince george s population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Prince George’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

population change for charles county by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Charles County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

Nearly 90 % of gain is minority growth

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for charles county by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Charles County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

Growth is entirely minority. In four years nearly equal to previous 10 for AA

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

charles county s population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Charles County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

Over ¾ white; less than 1/5 AA

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

charles county s population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Charles County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

White share less than 60%; AA share approaching 1/3

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

population change for baltimore county by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Baltimore County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

AA - Influence of migration from Baltimore City

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for baltimore county by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Baltimore County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

Nearly same pattern; but Hispanic growth nearly equal to previous 10 years

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

baltimore county s population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Baltimore County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

baltimore county s population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Baltimore County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

Whites < 70%; AA approaching 1/4 ; Asians & Hispanics < 5 %

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

population change for harford co by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Harford Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

White growth 5.6/1 to AA growth

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

pop change for harford county by race hispanic origin 2000 2004
Pop Change for Harford County by Race Hispanic & Origin, 2000–2004 *

White growth now 1.9 to 1 to AA growth. Hispanic growth =previous 10-year gain

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

harford county s population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Harford County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

harford county s population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Harford County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

Change in shares about equal to previous 10 years for whites, a bit more for AA

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

population change for frederick county by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Frederick County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

Overwhelmingly white. Ratio of white to AA = 7.6 to 1

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for frederick county by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Frederick County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

White share much smaller than previous 10 years (78% vs. 55%). AA change almost as much; Hispanic > previous 10 years

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

frederick county s population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Frederick County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

frederick county s population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Frederick County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

White share drops almost as much as in previous 10 years (3.5 vs. 4.1)

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

population change for carroll county by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Carroll County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

Overwhelmingly white gain (94%)

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for carroll county by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Carroll County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

Still mostly white, but less so (79.5%). AA & Hispanic increase greater than in previous 10 years

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

carroll county s population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Carroll County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

carroll county s population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Carroll County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

population change for howard county by race hispanic origin 1990 2000
Population Change for Howard County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000*

White is largest increase but less than ½ of total increase (48.2%)

* Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

population change for howard county by race and hispanic origin 2000 2004
Population Change for Howard County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 *

White gain now fourth largest

* Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data

howard county s population share by race hispanic origin 1990
Howard County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990

* Race share is non-Hispanic

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

howard county s population share by race hispanic origin 2004
Howard County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

White share drops another 4.4 pct pts., Increase spread out

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

age data
Age Data
  • Arrest rates by age and gender
  • Pop Distribution by Age and Race
u s arrest rates by age and gender 2004 per 10 000 population
U.S. Arrest Rates by Age and Gender - 2004 (per 10,000 population)

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, using arrest statistics from the FBI (Crime in the U.S. in 2004), and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

2004 population distribution by race hispanic origin from maryland
2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

2004 population distribution by race hispanic origin from maryland97
2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

2004 population distribution by race hispanic origin from maryland98
2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

2004 population distribution by race hispanic origin from maryland99
2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

montgomery population share by race hispanic origin 2004100
Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

montgomery population share by race hispanic origin 2004 males 15 19
Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males 15-19

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

montgomery population share by race hispanic origin 2004 males 20 24
Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males 20-24

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

montgomery population share by race hispanic origin 2004 males 25 29
Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males 25-29

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

2004 percent minority by age group for montgomery county
2004 Percent Minority by Age Group for Montgomery County

Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates

summary a few key points
Summary – A Few Key Points
  • Maryland is a diverse state and one that is becoming more diverse over time
  • This diversity is being promoted by net out-migration of non-Hispanic whites, in-migration of African Americans and steady and significant foreign immigration
summary a few key points106
Summary – A Few Key Points
  • Foreign immigration plays a major role in population growth in the State in general, and an even larger role for particular counties
  • Although the minority population is growing in 19 out of 24 jurisdictions, it is not uniform as to its race/ethnic makeup
summary a few key points107
Summary – A Few Key Points
  • In many jurisdictions, growth in Asians and Hispanics over the 2000-2004 period nearly matches, or exceeds, growth over the previous 10 years
  • Spanish speakers are the largest share of those that have trouble speaking English, although this can vary by jurisdiction.
summary a few key points108
Summary – A Few Key Points
  • In almost all cases, minority population is younger than the non-Hispanic white population
  • As a result, minority share of the population in key crime age cohorts will be larger than their share of the general population
slide109

Thank You…..

Mark Goldstein

mgoldstein@mdp.state.md.us