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April 2007 Climate Briefing

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April 2007 Climate Briefing. The J-F-M Season in Review (Brad Lyon) ENSO Status and Seasonal Forecasts (Tony Barnston) Mini-Seminar (Casey Brown – The Death of Reliability). January-February-March Season Overview. El Ni ñ o. 2007. Jan-Feb-Mar 2007 SST Anomaly.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

April 2007

Climate Briefing

  • The J-F-M Season in Review (Brad Lyon)
  • ENSO Status and Seasonal Forecasts (Tony Barnston)
  • Mini-Seminar (Casey Brown – The Death of Reliability)
slide2

January-February-March

Season Overview

El Niño

2007

slide3

Jan-Feb-Mar 2007

SST Anomaly

Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly

2006-07

Avg. 5 El Nino

slide4

Tropical Precipitation Patterns

JFM Prcp

EOF1

15.7%

(1979-2007)

Time Series

slide5

Jakarta PRCP

Past 90 Days

Past Year

slide6

Unusually Wet in the

Philippines

Data: Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Philippines Std. Rainfall Anomaly Jan ’06 – Mar ‘07

JFM

2007

“LA”

“EL”

slide7

Latest

SST

Anomaly

March 2007

Tropical Pacific

Sub-Surface

slide8

Nino3.4 SSTa and Tropical Pacific Low-Level Zonal Wind Anomaly

3-Month Running Average

r = 0.9

JFM 2007

Zonal Wind Climatology (925 hPa; 150E-90W, 5S-5N)

Easterlies

Weakest in

APR

slide9

ENSO Update and Forecast (Tony Barnston)

with Casey Brown

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