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Renewables : Where to?. Adnan Badran Arab Academy of Science Beirut Dec. 7, 2012. Present Energy Resources. Fossil fuels - coal, oil, not sustainable-depleting resources. Nuclear fuels -limited amounts of uranium for nuclear fission reactors but reprocessing of fuel possible.

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renewables where to

Renewables: Where to?

Adnan Badran

Arab Academy of Science

Beirut

Dec. 7, 2012

slide2

Present Energy Resources

  • Fossil fuels - coal, oil, not sustainable-depleting resources.
  • Nuclear fuels -limited amounts of uranium for nuclear fission reactors but reprocessing of fuel possible.
what renewables
What renewables

Unlikehydrocarbonenergies, renewableenergyisdevelopedfromresourcesthat are constantlyreplenished and willneverrunout.

  • Solar power
  • Windpower
  • Biomasspower
  • Geothermalenergy
  • Oceanenergy
  • Hydropower
solar power
Solar Power

A Solar power plant the size of lake Nasser has the capacity of supplying the electricity needs of entire region

Source: http://www.middleeastelectricity.com

solar pv generation capacity

Gigawatt-hours

Solar PV Generation Capacity

Solar power generating capacity grew by 73.3% in 2011, the fastest growth in our data (which goes back to 1996). Total capacity grew by 29.3 GW to reach 63.4 GW. Capacity has grown almost ten-fold over the past 5 years.

Source: http://www.middleeastelectricity.com

solar power1

Solar capacity growth in 2011 was dominated by two countries, Italy (9.3 GW added) and Germany (7.5 GW). Together they accounted for 57.1% of global capacity growth in 2011. Germany remains the leader for cumulative installed capacity (24.8 GW), and Italy (12.8 GW) has leapt into second place ahead of Japan (4.9 GW). China, already the leading manufacturer of solar PV, has started to develop its domestic solar market, adding 2.2 GW in 2011. China completed a 200 MW solar PV plant, which was at the time the world’s largest solar PV plant. Solar power generation enjoyed spectacular growth in 2011, with a record 86.3% increase. Its overall share of renewable power remains low (6.5%), but 2011 marked the arrival of solar power at scale, contributing 20% of the growth of renewable power in 2011.

Solar Power

Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle

wind power1

Wind power generating capacity grew by 20.5% in 2011, with capacity increasing by a record 40.8 GW to reach 239 GW by the end of 2011. The trend rate of capacity growth over the past 10 years is just over 25% pa, which implies a doubling of capacity every three years. Wind power now generates 437 TWh of electricity, around 2% of total electricity generation. China remains the largest market for wind power, both in terms of capacity added (17.6 GW) and in terms of cumulative installed capacity (62.4 GW). The second largest market, the US, added 6.8 GW in 2011 to reach 47.1 GW installed capacity. Led by Germany and Spain, Europe remains the largest regional market for wind power in terms of total installed capacity (96.8 GW, or 44% of the world total). The fastest growing region over the past five years has been Asia-Pacific, led by China and India. Asia-Pacific’s share of installed wind capacity has doubled since 2007, reaching 36% by the end of 2011.

Wind Power

Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle

installed wind generation capacity

Gigawatt-hours

Installed Wind Generation Capacity

Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle

2005 installed wind capacity
2005 Installed Wind Capacity

Australia

708 MW

1%

Asia

7,135 MW

12%

Americas

&

Africa

10,979 MW

19%

Europe

40,500 MW

68%

Total Wind

59,322 MW

Source: Global Wind Energy Council

global installed wind power capacity mw regional distribution
Global Installed Wind Power Capacity ( Mw ) – Regional Distribution

Africa & The Middle East

Asia

Europe

Latin America & Caribbean

North America

Pacific Region

Source: Wind Energy Fact Sheet, American Wind Energy Association, www.awaea.org

biomass energy1

Global biofuels production stagnated, rising by just 0.7% or 10,000 barrels per day oil equivalent(b/doe), the weakest annual growth since 2000

Growth in the US (+55,000 b/doe, or 10.9%) slowed as the share of ethanol in gasoline approached the ‘blendwall’, and Brazilian output had the largest decline in our data set (-50,000 b/doe, or -15.3%) due to a poor sugar harvest.

Biomass energy

Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle

world biofuels production

Million tonnes oil equivalent

World biofuels production

Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle

world biofuels production1

Million tonnes oil equivalent

World biofuels production grew by 0.7% in 2011, the smallest increase since 2000. Increased output in North America was offset by declines in South & Central America and Europe. Biodiesel accounts for just 27.5% of global biofuels output, but accounted for all of the growth in global biofuels output. Global ethanol output declined by 1.4%.

World biofuels production

Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle

geothermal energy1
Geothermal Energy

Geothermal capacity grew by just 0.8% (88 MW) in 2011, to reach 11 GW. Geothermal capacity has now been overtaken by solar power capacity, but geothermal power runs at a much higher load factor solar (its source is continuous rather than intermittent), so geothermal still produces significantly more electricity than solar.Only two major projects were completed in 2011, in Iceland (90 MW) and Costa Rica (42 MW), while Mexico shut down an old plant (78 MW). The US has the largest geothermal capacity, now just over 3.1 GW (28.3% of the world total), followed by the Philippines (2.0 GW), Indonesia (1.2 GW) and Mexico (0.9 GW).

Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do

case of geothermal energy jordan

Two geothermal systems were designed and are currently being installed by MENA Geothermal at the American University of Madaba (AUM), Jordan, to meet the full heating and cooling demands of the university.

The geothermal heating and cooling systems at AUM, once completed, will be the largest in the Arab region

Case of Geothermal Energy, Jordan

Source: AFED, 2011

geothermal system features at american university of madaba aum

The College of Science’s geothermal system is designed to meet a

  • cooling load of 1020 kW (291 tons)
  • heating load of 880 kW (251 tons)
  • While the College of Business’s geothermal system is designed to meet a
  • cooling load of 660 kW (189 tons
  • and heating load of 470 kW (134 tons)

Annual Energy and CO2 Savings. Compared to conventional heating and cooling systems used in Jordan, AUM’s geothermal heating and cooling system is expected to have annual savings of over 200,000 kWh of electricity in the summer months (cooling), and 90,000 liters of diesel fuel in the winter months (heating). In total, AUM will generate annual savings of over $85,000. Moreover, the geothermal system is expected to eliminate 365 tons of CO2 emissions

every year.

Geothermal System Features at American University of Madaba (AUM)

Source: AFED, 2011

aum s operating cost comparision conventional vs geothermal heating cooling
AUM’s operating cost comparision conventional VS. Geothermal (Heating Cooling)

Source: AFED, 2011

aum s operating cost comparision conventional vs geothermal total
AUM’s operating cost comparision conventional VS. Geothermal (Total)

Source: AFED, 2011

ocean energy
Ocean Energy

Wave technology is the most exciting areas of untapped energy potential. Given fluctuating fuel prices and the impact of global warming, Ocean Energy is now in a very strong position to commercialize the vast body of research and development it has invested in over the past 10 years.

Source: http://www.oceanenergy.ie

ocean energy1
Ocean Energy

There are five different technologies under development, which aim to extract energy from the oceans.

Tidal power:the potential energy associated with tides can be harnessed by building a barrage or other forms of construction across an estuary.

Tidal (marine) currents:the kinetic energy associated with tidal (marine) currents can be harnessed using modular systems.

Wave power:the kinetic and potential energy associated with ocean waves can be harnessed by a range of technologies under development.

Temperature gradients:the temperature gradient between the sea surface and deep water can be harnessed using different ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) processes.

Salinity gradients:at the mouth of rivers, where freshwater mixes with saltwater, energy associated with the salinity gradient can be harnessed using the pressure‐retarded reverse osmosis process and associated conversion technologies.

None of these technologies is widely deployed as yet, but significant potential exists

Source: http://www.oceanenergy.ie

hydropower energy
Hydropower Energy

Hydropower or water power is power derived from the energy of falling water, which may be harnessed for useful purposes. Since ancient times, hydropower has been used for irrigation and the operation of various mechanical devices, such as watermills, sawmills, textile mills, dock cranes, domestic lifts and paint making.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydropower

slide27

Hydropower Development

Hydropower development ratio

for world regions and top five countries with

the highest potential

Countries with largest developed

proportion of their hydro potential (countries

with hydropower production over 30 TWh/yr)

Data Source: WEC Survey of Energy Resources 2007, IEA Renewables Information 2010 (2008 data)

renewable energy
Renewable Energy

Renewable energy will stabilize electricity costs, as it is not dependent upon depleting resources. Photovoltaic systems will also increase access to electricity in rural areas without the need of complex policy decision-making, thus balancing the socioeconomic infrastructure of the region. For heating and cooling systems, and water desalinization.

Thus, when considering these energy options on a larger scale, renewable energy is the most efficient choice in the long-run. The vast solar potential of the Middle East is waiting to be tapped.

renewable energy1
Renewable Energy

Thekeyelements of thiscost-benefitcalculusappeartobe:

  • Decliningcosts (and thusprices) of renewableenergy and othersustainabilityproducts as technologyimproves and economies of scalearrive
  • Incentives thatwork in the favor of renewables: removal of subsidies forfossilfuels, taxcreditsforelectricvehicles, etc.
world energy consumption
World energy consumption

World primary energy consumption rose by 2.5% (2011). OECD countries fell by 0.8%. Oil continues to be world’s leading fuel at 33.1% of global energy consumption.

slide31

World consumption

Million tones oil equivalent

Source: http://www.bp.com

regional consumption
Regional consumption

The Asia Pacific region is the world's largest energy consumer, accounting for 39.1% of global energy consumption and 68.6% of global coal consumption; the region also leads in oil and hydroelectric generation. Europe & Eurasia is the leading region for consumption of natural gas, nuclear power, and renewables. Coal is the dominant fuel in the Asia Pacific region; natural gas is dominant in Europe & Eurasia, and oil is dominant in all other regions.

slide33

The Asia Pacific region is the world's largest energy consumer, accounting for 39.1% of global energy consumption and 68.6% of global coal consumption; the region also leads in oil and hydroelectric generation. Europe & Eurasia is the leading region for consumption of natural gas, nuclear power, and renewables. Coal is the dominant fuel in the Asia Pacific region; natural gas is dominant in Europe & Eurasia, and oil is dominant in all other regions.

Source: http://www.bp.com

slide34

Coal remains the most abundant fossil fuel by global R/P ratio, although global oil and natural gas reserves have increased significantly over time

Source: http://www.bp.com

energy sector in morocco
Energy Sector in Morocco

ONE (national electricity Utility)

IPPs in Morocco

Dependency on imports: 97%

Installed capacity: 6150 MW

Transmission

Source: www.one.ma

masen morocco agency for solar energy projects
MASEN (Morocco Agency for solar energy) projects
  • Ouarzazate Site:
  • with a surface of about 33 square kilometers. i.e. 3,300 Hectares. This site is located close to the MansourEddahbi
  • dam whose storage capacity is 439 hm3.
  • Energy produced by the power plant may be channeled to the 225/60 KV post of Ouarzazate which is close to the power plant.
  • AinBeniMathar Site:
  • With a surface of about 3,000 hectares.
  • This site is close to the 400KV and 225KV grids. An aquifer allows to cover water needs of the power plant-which should remain ninimal with a dry-type cooling

2

1

masen morocco agency for solar energy projects1
MASEN (Morocco Agency for solar energy) projects

The Foum El Oued Site:

with a surface of 5,700 hectares. This line is a 225 & 60KV line, while waiting for the arrival scheduled in the mid-term of the 400 KV grid (Agadir-Layoune).

Boujdour Site:

With a surface of 500 hectaresConcerning the connection to the grid of the solar thermal plant to be developed on that site, one has to mention that the 225kV line, currently operating on 60kV linking the city of Laayoune to the city of Boujdour, goes close to the site.

3

4

masen morocco agency for solar energy projects2
MASEN (Morocco Agency for solar energy) projects

SebkhatTah Site:

with a surface of 360 sq. Kilometers.  Characterized by an important depression of a height of 60 meters (180 feet)  and an interesting wind potential,  this site could be used as an energy compound, integrating in addition to a solar plant, a wind farm,  and a pumped storage water plant.

Concerning the connection to the grid of the solar thermal plant to be developed on that site, one should note that this zone is served by 225 kV lines,  to be strengthened, in the medium term, by a 400 kV line between the cities of Agadir and Laayoune.Concerning the water resources, the open-circuit cooling would be made through a seawater intake, as is the case for the classical thermal plants, due to the proximity of the site with respect to the sea  (11 kilometers/ 6.88 miles).

5

slide40

developing countries

transition economies

OECD

INCREASE IN WORLD ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

7000

6000

5000

4000

Mton oil equivalent*

3000

2000

1000

production

production

consumption

consumption

0

1971 – 2000

2000 – 2030

* 1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe) = 42 GJ (net calorific value) = 10034 Mcal

Source: IEA 2002

slide41

MAJOR CHALLENGES IN ENERGY

  • Energy security: fuel supply resources for the future
  • Economic growth: accommodation of the developing nations’ needs
  • Environmental effects: global warming and emission control
  • Electricity system reliability: assurance of integrity of electric power infrastructure
slide42

Forecasted Renewable Costs

4030

20

10

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

PV

Wind

cents / kWh

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

70

60

50

40

30

20

100

1512

9

6

30

10

8

6

4

20

Solar thermal

Biomass

Geothermal

cents / kWh

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

All costs are levelized in constant year 2000

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)

slide45

Number of operating nuclear reactors all over the world

440 nuclear reactors

Source: Jordan Atomic Energy Commission

slide46

Number of nuclear reactors under construction around the world

Source: Jordan Atomic Energy Commission

key challenges in renewable expansion
Key Challenges In Renewable Expansion
  • Integration into the grid
    • interconnection
    • grid capability
    • reliability issues
    • power quality
  • Competitiveness of technology costs
  • Environmental problems
  • Development of storage technology
key challenges in renewable expansion1
Key Challenges In Renewable Expansion
  • Government policies at the
    • federal
    • state
    • Local
  • Regulatory accommodation
    • permitting processes
    • back up power
    • “green power” differential
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Major difficulties in attaining target of 10% of electricity generated by renewables
  • Main contributors to this target will be :-
  • Offshore and Onshore windfarms/clusters
  • Biomass/wood, straw, etc
  • Photovoltaic
  • But policies like Climate Change Levy and the Renewables Obligation will help establish renewables.
recommendations
Recommendations
  • Remove the current obstacles that prevent the transition to green energy, which  include the lack of investment in research and development, capacity building and integrated policy-making.
  • To Reform the present  legislative and institutional framework, to facilitate the transition to a green economy.
  • To establish an incentive system that encourage investment in energy efficient technologies and renewable energy.
  • To Adopt an energy efficiency plan and  mange renewable energy issues aspillars of a new energy policy, built on a coordinated effort involving the government, the private sector, the financial sector and other stakeholders.
  • Constant adjustment for energy prices to reflect the actual economic cost, scarcity, the long-term marginal cost, and environmental damage. Further , it is required to reform the energy prices as an effective tool to rationalize energy consumption and to transform to low-carbon emission, which will  concurrently lead to a vast increases in government revenues.   Re-allocation of these revenues is also a must to enhance energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy expansion .
  • To Begin a political discussion on the formulation of a new institutional mechanism, to ensure the harmonization of energy policies and climate change in the Arab region.