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Travel Costs

Travel Costs . Lecture 16 October 27, 2004 12-706 / 73-359. Admin / Announcements. Early Course Evals Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D) Done to encourage you to keep working hard. Value - travel time savings. Many studies seek to estimate VTTS Can then be used easily in CBAs

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Travel Costs

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  1. Travel Costs Lecture 16 October 27, 2004 12-706 / 73-359

  2. Admin / Announcements • Early Course Evals • Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D) • Done to encourage you to keep working hard

  3. Value - travel time savings • Many studies seek to estimate VTTS • Can then be used easily in CBAs • Book reminds us of Waters 1993 (56 studies) • Many different methods used in studies • Route, speed, mode, location choices • Results as % of hourly wages not a $ amount • Mean value of 48% of wage rate (median 40) • North America: 59%/42%

  4. Government Analyses • DOT (1997): Use % of wage rates for local/intercity and personal/business travel • Personal: 50% for local, 70% intercity • Business: 100% for all trips • These are the values we will use in class • Income levels are important themselves • VTTS not purely proportional to income • Waters suggests ‘square root’ relation • E.g. if income increases factor 4, VTTS by 2 Office of Secretary of Transportation, “Guidance for the Valuation of Travel Time in Economic Analysis”, US DOT, April 1997.

  5. Government Analyses • Typically 40-60% of hourly rate in CBAs • US (FHA) 60% - Canada 50% • Again, travel versus leisure important • Wide variation: 1:1 to 5:1! • Income levels are important themselves • VTTS not purely proportional to income • Waters suggests ‘square root’ relation • E.g. if income increases factor 4, VTTS by 2

  6. Introduction - Congestion • Congestion (i.e. highway traffic) has impacts on movement of people & goods • Leads to increased travel time and fuel costs • Long commutes -> stress -> quality of life • Impacts freight costs (higher labor costs) and thus increases costs of goods & services • http://tti.tamu.edu/inside/hdv/programs/ama/mobility/study/report.stm (TTI report)

  7. Literature Review • Texas Transportation Institute’s 1999 Annual Mobility Report • 15-year study to assess costs of congestion • Average daily traffic volumes • Binary congestion values • ‘Congested’ roads assumed both ways • Assumed 5% trucks all times/all roads • Assumed 1.25 persons/vehicle, $12/hour • Assumed roadway sizes for 3 classes of roads • Four different peak hour speeds (both ways)

  8. Results • An admirable study at the national level • In 1997, congestion cost U.S. 4.3 billion hours of delay, 6.6 billion gallons of wasted fuel, thus $72 billion of total cost • New Jersey wanted to validate results with its own data

  9. New Jersey Method • Used New Jersey Congestion Management System (NJCMS) - 21 counties total • Hourly data! Much more info. than TTI report • For 4,000 two-direction links • Freeways principal arteries, other arteries • Detailed data on truck volumes • Average vehicle occupancy data per county, per roadway type • Detailed data on individual road sizes, etc.

  10. Level of Service • Description of traffic flow (A-F) • A is best, F is worst (A-C ‘ok’, D-F not) • Peak hour travel speeds calculated • Compared to ‘free flow’ speeds • A-C classes not considered as congested • D-F congestion estimated by free-peak speed • All attempts to make specific findings on New Jersey compared to national • http://www.njit.edu/Home/congestion/

  11. Definitions • Roadway Congestion Index - cars per road space, measures vehicle density • Found per urban area (compared to avgs) • > 1.0 undesirable • Travel Rate Index • Amount of extra time needed on a road peak vs. off-peak (e.g. 1.20 = 20% more)

  12. Definitions (cont.) • Travel Delay - time difference between actual time and ‘zero volume’ travel time • Congestion Cost - delay and fuel costs • Fuel assumed at $1.28 per gallon • VTTS - used wage by county (100%) • Also, truck delays $2.65/mile (same as TTI) • Congestion cost per licensed driver • Took results divided by licenses • Assumed 69.2% of all residents each county

  13. Details • County wages $10.83-$23.20 per hour • Found RCI for each roadway link in NJ • Aggregated by class for each county

  14. New York City RCI result: Northern counties generally higher than southern counties

  15. TRI result: Northern counties generally higher than southern counties

  16. Avg annual Delay = 34 hours! Almost a work Week!

  17. Effects • Could find annual hours of delay per driver by aggregating roadway delays • Then dividing by number of drivers • Total annual congestion cost $4.9 B • Over 5% of total of TTI study • 75% for autos (190 M hours, $0.5 B fuel cost) • 25% for trucks (inc. labor/operating cost) • Avg annual delay per driver = 34 hours

  18. Future • Predicted to only get worse • Congestion costs will double by 2015

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