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Travel Costs . Lecture 16 October 27, 2004 12-706 / 73-359. Admin / Announcements. Early Course Evals Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D) Done to encourage you to keep working hard. Value - travel time savings. Many studies seek to estimate VTTS Can then be used easily in CBAs

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travel costs

Travel Costs

Lecture 16

October 27, 2004

12-706 / 73-359

admin announcements
Admin / Announcements
  • Early Course Evals
  • Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D)
    • Done to encourage you to keep working hard
value travel time savings
Value - travel time savings
  • Many studies seek to estimate VTTS
    • Can then be used easily in CBAs
  • Book reminds us of Waters 1993 (56 studies)
    • Many different methods used in studies
    • Route, speed, mode, location choices
    • Results as % of hourly wages not a $ amount
    • Mean value of 48% of wage rate (median 40)
    • North America: 59%/42%
government analyses
Government Analyses
  • DOT (1997): Use % of wage rates for local/intercity and personal/business travel
    • Personal: 50% for local, 70% intercity
    • Business: 100% for all trips
    • These are the values we will use in class
  • Income levels are important themselves
    • VTTS not purely proportional to income
    • Waters suggests ‘square root’ relation
    • E.g. if income increases factor 4, VTTS by 2

Office of Secretary of Transportation, “Guidance for the Valuation of

Travel Time in Economic Analysis”, US DOT, April 1997.

government analyses5
Government Analyses
  • Typically 40-60% of hourly rate in CBAs
  • US (FHA) 60% - Canada 50%
  • Again, travel versus leisure important
    • Wide variation: 1:1 to 5:1!
  • Income levels are important themselves
    • VTTS not purely proportional to income
    • Waters suggests ‘square root’ relation
    • E.g. if income increases factor 4, VTTS by 2
introduction congestion
Introduction - Congestion
  • Congestion (i.e. highway traffic) has impacts on movement of people & goods
    • Leads to increased travel time and fuel costs
    • Long commutes -> stress -> quality of life
    • Impacts freight costs (higher labor costs) and thus increases costs of goods & services
    • http://tti.tamu.edu/inside/hdv/programs/ama/mobility/study/report.stm (TTI report)
literature review
Literature Review
  • Texas Transportation Institute’s 1999 Annual Mobility Report
    • 15-year study to assess costs of congestion
    • Average daily traffic volumes
    • Binary congestion values
      • ‘Congested’ roads assumed both ways
    • Assumed 5% trucks all times/all roads
    • Assumed 1.25 persons/vehicle, $12/hour
    • Assumed roadway sizes for 3 classes of roads
    • Four different peak hour speeds (both ways)
results
Results
  • An admirable study at the national level
  • In 1997, congestion cost U.S. 4.3 billion hours of delay, 6.6 billion gallons of wasted fuel, thus $72 billion of total cost
  • New Jersey wanted to validate results with its own data
new jersey method
New Jersey Method
  • Used New Jersey Congestion Management System (NJCMS) - 21 counties total
      • Hourly data! Much more info. than TTI report
    • For 4,000 two-direction links
      • Freeways principal arteries, other arteries
    • Detailed data on truck volumes
    • Average vehicle occupancy data per county, per roadway type
    • Detailed data on individual road sizes, etc.
level of service
Level of Service
  • Description of traffic flow (A-F)
    • A is best, F is worst (A-C ‘ok’, D-F not)
  • Peak hour travel speeds calculated
    • Compared to ‘free flow’ speeds
    • A-C classes not considered as congested
    • D-F congestion estimated by free-peak speed
  • All attempts to make specific findings on New Jersey compared to national
  • http://www.njit.edu/Home/congestion/
definitions
Definitions
  • Roadway Congestion Index - cars per road space, measures vehicle density
    • Found per urban area (compared to avgs)
    • > 1.0 undesirable
  • Travel Rate Index
    • Amount of extra time needed on a road peak vs. off-peak (e.g. 1.20 = 20% more)
definitions cont
Definitions (cont.)
  • Travel Delay - time difference between actual time and ‘zero volume’ travel time
  • Congestion Cost - delay and fuel costs
    • Fuel assumed at $1.28 per gallon
    • VTTS - used wage by county (100%)
    • Also, truck delays $2.65/mile (same as TTI)
  • Congestion cost per licensed driver
    • Took results divided by licenses
    • Assumed 69.2% of all residents each county
details
Details
  • County wages $10.83-$23.20 per hour
  • Found RCI for each roadway link in NJ
    • Aggregated by class for each county
slide14

New York

City

RCI result:

Northern counties

generally higher

than southern

counties

slide15

TRI result:

Northern counties

generally higher

than southern

counties

slide17

Avg annual

Delay =

34 hours!

Almost a work

Week!

effects
Effects
  • Could find annual hours of delay per driver by aggregating roadway delays
    • Then dividing by number of drivers
  • Total annual congestion cost $4.9 B
    • Over 5% of total of TTI study
    • 75% for autos (190 M hours, $0.5 B fuel cost)
    • 25% for trucks (inc. labor/operating cost)
    • Avg annual delay per driver = 34 hours
future
Future
  • Predicted to only get worse
    • Congestion costs will double by 2015