Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Adelaide, 16 April 2007

1. Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Adelaide, 16 April 2007 The Future Environment for Energy Business Jesse H. Ausubel Program for the Human Environment The Rockefeller University, New York City http://phe.rockefeller.edu Acknowledgements:C. Marchetti, N. Victor, P. Waggoner, E. Yantovski

2. A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

3. Carbon Atoms per Hydrogen Atom in Hydrocarbons Evolution from Wood to Methane Decarbonizes (water removed; charcoal pure C) Source: Ausubel, 2007

4. Decarbonization Evolution of C:H Ratio in Global Fuel Mix Wood C:H = 10:1 Coal C:H = 2:1 C:H Oil C:H = 1:2 Methane C:H = 1:4 Methane Economy NonFossil Hydrogen Hydrogen Economy When viewed as market substitution, decarbonization is a 300-year process for H to rise from 10% to 90% market share, midpoint 1935 Source: Ausubel 2007, after Ausubel, 1996 and Marchetti, 1985

5. 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Decarbonization of Global Primary EnergyViewed as Declining Carbon Intensity of All Primary Energy Carbon/ Energy kg /GJ Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

6. Fuel Mass per Energy of Hydrocarbons economies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density and thus decarbonization Fuel/Energykg/GJ Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

7. Earth Luminosity 1996 Upward light flux measured at the top of the atmosphere, low-gain version of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) data, Elvidge et al.,US National Geophysical Data Center. J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

8. Luminosity if all were as luminous as Americans J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

9. Increases in light flux if everyone outside USA lit like USA (1996-7) Or latent electricity demand, blue to white to red color ramp Source: Nadja Makarova Victor & Jesse Ausubel, 2004

10. US Passenger Travel Per Capita Per Day (Range) 100 Total (average per decade) Cars (+ Buses + Motorcycles) 10 Air Walking Miles 1 Trains 0.1 Horses 0.01 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year J. Ausubel, P. Meyer, N. Victor, 2007 Sources: US Historical Abstracts; US Statistical Abstracts; A. Gruebler 1989; US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2006

11. Methane-fueled Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP) Temperature up to 1,500 C, pressure to 400 atm A spigot in the lower left might draw off the carbon dioxide. Source: Ausubel, 2004

12. Bankside Power Station, London Opened for power generation in 1953, became Tate Gallery in 2000 100m tall “Footprint” covers 3.5 hectares Comparably powerful plant built today could fit in 1/10th the space Source: Ausubel 2004

13. Like computers that comprise the Internet, power plants become more powerful AND SMALLER J. Ausubel & T. Barrett, 2004 Dell laptop, 2004 US Ballistic Research Lab computer, mid 1950s Tennessee Valley Authority coal plant (date unknown) Delivery of General Electric 480 MW natural gas turbine, 2000

14. Source: Olav Bolland http://folk.ntnu.no/obolland

15. A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

16. Shelf break: Continental marginsthe methane frontier?

17. Gulf of Mexico Census of Marine Life Expedition to Deep Slope 2006 First systematic exploration of hydrocarbon seep communities deeper than 1000m Source: ChEss AquaPix, Bob Carney Bruce Strickrott Ian MacDonald Ian MacDonald

18. Storegga, Norway, 120 km offshore, 1000 m deep Ormen Lange gas field, without conventional offshore platforms Production expected October 2007

19. Census of Marine Life Arctic Jelliesphotographers: K. Raskoff, R. Hopcroft

20. Garbage collected in 4000 m depth in Ierapetra Basin south of Crete Source: CEDAMAR

21. There are no ocean deserts! Beautiful life abounds everywhere. Conserve it.

22. 106 105 Millions of cubic feet 104 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 USA: Hydrogen production, 1971- 2003 semi-log scale Year Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2006

23. Falling hydrogen price versus hydrogen production, USA, 1971-2003 10 2000 US$/10e3 cubic feet 1 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Annual production, millions of cubic feet J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2005

24. Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2005

25. fuel mass per energy including nuclear fuels economies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density, thus decarbonization & thus finally nuclear sources 10,000 X more compact than hydrocarbons 100 10 Fuel/Energykg/GJ 1 10-1 Uranium 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 To produce with solar cells the energy generated in 1 liter of core of a nuclear reactor, one needs ~ 1 hectare (10,000 square meters) of solar cells! Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

26. Renewable Energy Production Intensitiesin watts per square meter, a story of weakness • Hydro: • Hoover Dam 0.0014 • Hydro: All US dams 0.0049 • Hydro: Ontario 0.012 • Biomass: • ethanol from corn (net) 0.047 • New England forest 0.12 • Ocean biomass 0.6 • Corn (whole plant) 0.75 • Sugar cane (intensively farmed) 3.7 • Wind 1.2 • Solar thermal (actual) 3.2 Sources: Ausubel, Hayden

27. Diablo Canyon 2200 MW Power Plant 5 Miles Spatial scale: Nuclear and WindCalifornia Coast 10% Wind Equivalent Source: P. Grant

28. 2017: Australian Methane Production and Exploration Association Endless sea of methane photographed from Titan’s surface by probe Huygens, 14 January 2005 (ESA). See also “The Lakes of Titan,” 4 January 2007, Nature magazine, Stofan et al. Text and figures posted at http://phe.rockefeller.edu