Global Warming Energy Challenges . RecycleWorks Brown Bag Lecture Series County of San Mateo January 31, 2006 . Overview. Greenhouse effect Historic carbon emissions / CO 2 rise Forcing models / temperature predictions Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F) Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak
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RecycleWorks Brown Bag Lecture Series
County of San Mateo
January 31, 2006
It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll
burn the next trillionin less than 30 years – why should you care?
- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4*M tons C + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
Based on 2% annual growth in carbon emissions 2000 - 2030
Some math is required….
You can model this in Excel and predict temperatures from ppm [CO2]
0F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
Temperature leads biomass CO2, then CO2 maintains temperature
Not just increased temperature, but added heat, for a long, long, time!
All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
in late August 2005
finds warm water
in the Gulf of Mexico
And grows from a
category 1 to a
category 5 hurricane
in less than 2 days!
The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,
and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these
rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.
NASA schematic view of ocean circulation. The light colored path shows the general movement of the surface waters and the dark colored path shows the movement of water at depth. The numbers show the position of: 1. The Gulf Stream which transports heat from the tropics to northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water formation which results from strong cooling. 3. Antarctic Bottom Water formation due to sea ice production around Antarctica.
Antarctic holds >80%
of earth’s fresh water
Like the Arctic, it
moderates the climate
Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
Fuel cells 1930-2050
New power grid
Low power lighting
Safer nuclear power
CO2 sequestration10 Key Energy Challenges
Establishing Technical Leadership in a New Energy Economy
An Apollo style program on a Manhattan Project Timeline
Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry
Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005
One Million Solar Roofs – ‘California, the Solar State’
Gas Electric Synergy Drive™ - ‘plug-in hybrids’ coming soon
Solar power is an ‘edge of network’ asset in a distributed power system
Range ~8 - 12 miles
Battery packs can be charged locally (~5 hrs)
Emission free vehicle
Solar panels ‘extra’
Projected cost of $2,500 in quantityMove Differently
Africa & India 0.3
Tons of carbon per person in year 2000 => average= 1.1
8 billion people @ 1.25 tons each = 10 G tons of carbon / year
That is 50% more carbon emissions than today!
We can do this, but the clock is running!
Each one of us must be a leader in this technology revolution!
Published in : IPCC Third Assessment Report - Synthesis Report Figure number : 9.3
Partnering with businesses, nonprofits, cities and counties to reduce CO2 emissions in San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda and Santa Cruz Counties