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WAR The Cost of “The most significant aspect of our current strategic reality is that the Global War on Terror in which we are now engaged will be a protracted one.” - Army Posture Statement 2005, February 6, 2005 Donald Rumsfeld

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slide1

WAR

The Cost of

slide2

“The most significant aspect of our current strategic reality is that the Global War on Terror in which we are now engaged will be a protracted one.”

- Army Posture Statement 2005, February 6, 2005

slide3

Donald Rumsfeld

U.S. forces must maintain the capability, at the direction of the President, to impose the will of the United States and its coalition partners on any adversaries, including states or non-state entities.

Annual Report to the President and the Congress from the Secretary of Defense, 2002

slide4

First Strike OptionChange In Doctrine

The New Preemptive War Posture

NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF THE UNITED STATES, September 2002 formalized a policy that was already underway.

The new first strike doctrine adds “preemption” and “defensive intervention” to traditional containment and deterrence policies as formal options for striking at hostile nations or groups.

This new doctrine requires new military capabilities.

slide5

Capabilities BasedChange In Doctrine

“The best defense is offense”

During the Cold War, policy was designed to maintain a global “balance of power” and prevent the spread of Soviet Communism.

This doctrine has formally changed.

Transforming from the threat-based force of the Cold War to a capabilities based force postured to respond to a wide variety of threats.

Military requirements are now detached from assessments of actual security threats.

U.S. military strategy is now focused on exploiting technological capabilities to the fullest and expanding U.S. military reach to every corner of the globe.

Source: Nuclear Posture Review, 8 Jan. 2002

slide6

U.S. Worldwide PresenceChange In Organization

  • 5 Geographic Commands
  • NORTHCOM - U.S. North American Command
  • SOUTHCOM - U.S. South American Command
  • PACOM - U.S. Pacific Command
  • EUCOM - U.S. European Command
  • CENTCOM - U.S. Central Command
  • 4 Functional Commands
  • SOCOM - U.S. Special Operations Command
  • JFCOM - U.S. Joint Forces Command
  • STRATCOM - United States Strategic Command
  • TRANSCOM - U.S. Transportation Command
slide8

Forward Military Presence - New Bases

American forces have been in western Europe since WWII to support NATO. Those forces will now be spread out.

The United States is building 14 permanent bases in Iraq.

The Pentagon is repositioning the global force to put troops close to every hot spot or areathreatening the national interest.

Turkey, Bosnia, Kosovo, Morocco, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Pakistan, India, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Tunisia, Algeria, Senegal, Ghana, Maki and Sierra Leone.

Possible new U.S. overseas bases

Source: American Forces Press Services, March 8, 2005

slide9

U.S. Central Command Covers the area from the Horn of Africa through the Persian Gulf, into Central Asia.

That includes Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and the Caspian Sea area.

slide10

OIL & GAS

OIL & GAS

OIL & GAS

OIL & GAS

Potential New U.S. Bases

Threatening the national interest ...

slide11

A Growing Need

Since 2001, the U.S. military has deployed more than 1 million

troops for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Ready troop strength is stretched thin by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

341,000, or nearly one third, have served 2 or more overseas tours.

Source: Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, Feb. 3, 2005

slide12

A permanently larger Army ...

Paul D. Wolfowitz, as Deputy Defense Secretary warned of “a very difficult road ahead” in Iraq.

Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee February 3, 2005.

The increase in troops for Iraq has been paid for primarily through supplemental appropriations.

In early 2005 a decision was made to make the 3-year temporary troop increase permanent starting FY 2007.

Source: US TO PULL 15,000 TROOPS OUT OF IRAQ, Washington Post, February 4, 2005

slide13

… on a permanently enlarged battlefield

Proposed New U.S. Bases

Proposed Future GWOT Bases

Major Overseas Cold War Bases

Iraq & Afghanistan

slide14

Major U.S. Oil Imports & Expanding Natural Gas Development

Eastern Europe and FSU has 36.3% of the worlds natural gas and potentially enough oil to add 10% to the reserves

U.S. Oil/Gas Imports

Expanding Gas Production

The Middle East has 66.3% of the worlds oil reserves and 36.3% of the natural gas

Major Gas Reserves

Source: Oil & Gas Journal, 2001

slide15

94% of the world’s oil was state-owned before the Iraqi invasion.Nation-states grant concessions to foreign companies for exploration and extraction.

Oil & Gas Production and New Bases

U.S. Oil/Gas Imports

Future Gas Production

Proposed Future GWOT Bases

Major Overseas Cold War Bases

Iraq & Afghanistan

Major Gas Reserves

slide17

Cost of War

Combat Deaths

slide18

Killed In Iraq

U.S. Military : over 1,540

Coalition Forces: over 175

Iraqi Soldiers and Insurgents: 24,000

Civilian Contractors : over 200

Journalists, UN & Aid Workers:over 60

Iraqi Civilians: from 16,000 to 100,000

April 2005

slide19

Fallen U.S. Soldiers

Lance Corporal Jose Gutierrez U.S. Marine Corps

Died March 21, 2003 in combat

Age: 22

Hometown: Los Angeles

Among the First to Die

slide20

Deaths Under Age 25

Who Is Dying?

= 50.4%

80% of U.S. military deaths come from the Regular Active Duty forces. 20% are from Reserve or National Guard units.

Air Force

Navy

Army

Marines

Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Statistical Information Analysis Division

slide21

Cause of Death - Hostile

Operation Iraqi Freedom Two Years of War

Hostile Fire

IED

Source: Department of Defense Casualty Statistics

slide22

Is It Getting Better?

DeathsYear 1Year 2

Total 585 925

Per Week 11.0 17.8

The Government has limited media coverage of returning coffins and military funerals.

More Americans died in the second year of the War than in the first.

58%

slide24

The Wounded & The Sick

For every military death in Iraq 9 more are wounded in combat.

But … 12 more are evacuated for non-hostile injuries or illnesses

Hostile Injuries

Non-Hostile Injuries

Deaths

Psychiatric

Source: 60 Minutes, Salon.com, Antiwar.com

slide25

Is It Getting Better?

WoundedYear 1Year 2

Total 2,988 8,297

Per Week 56.4 159.6

More Americans were combat wounded in the second year of the War.

178%

slide26

Non-Hostile Injuries & Illnesses

By March 2005, 20,432 people had been evacuated from Iraq or Afghanistan with non-hostile injuries or illnesses.

The official Pentagon casualty count includes non-hostile, in-theater deaths but does not include non-hostile injuries or illnesses.

  • Non-hostile injuries and illnesses include:
  • injuries sustained in accidents
  • heart problems and other non-combat illness
  • friendly fire
  • mental health issues
  • environmental exposures
slide27

Coalition Casualties - xTotals

Coalition Deaths 1,667

Hostile Injuries 11,220

Non-Hostile Injuries and Illnesses 20,432

Psychiatric or Behavioral Health 1,635 (based on 8% of non-hostile casualties)

Total34,954

Over 30% of Gulf War I vets are chronically ill.

Tip of the Iceberg

To date, 221,000 Gulf War I veterans are receiving disability benefits for combat-related injuries and illnesses in that war - a war that lasted 6 weeks with just 382 fatalities and 467 injured.

March 2005

Source: Veterans Affairs, Gulf War Veterans Association, multiple newspaper sources; March 2005

slide28

Iraqi Casualties

“We don’t do body counts.”General Tommy Franks

Under pressure from Congress, DoD has estimated 24,000 insurgents have been killed.

No one has been able to keep a realistic record of Iraqi casualties. However, there are several estimates.

iraqbodycount.net has been keeping track of publicized civilian deaths since the beginning of the invasion by combing news reports from all over the world. Their estimates as of March 8, 2005:

Estimated civilian deaths I: 16,214 - 18,491

slide29

The Lancet Estimate

Estimated civilian deaths II: 100,000

46% were children younger than 15

7% were women

46% were adult men

Iraqi’s are now 58 times more likely to die a violent death than they were before the invasion.

The Lancet is Britain’s medical journal. Two teams conducted a door-to-door survey throughout Iraq asking about deaths before and after the invasion. They extrapolated their results to reflect the entire population.

Source: The Lancet, October 2004

slide31

Commanders

&

Businessmen

slide33

Arms Sellers and Buyers

Arms Exports 2003

Arms Imports 2003

U.S. U.K.

Russia, Ukraine

U.S. U.K.

Eastern Europe

Asia

Western Europe & Canada

Middle East and Caspian Sea Area

Source: UN Human Development Report 2004

slide34

The U.S., Russia, France, Germany and Britain make 82% of the world’s arms sales.

Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe are the major buyers.

Billions

Source: UN Human Development Report 2004

slide35

The average CEO at a major defense contractor made 577 times as much as an Army private in 2002.

Median CEO pay at the 37 largest defense contractors rose 79% from 2001 to 2002,while overall CEO pay climbed only 6%.

Source: Business Week & United for a Fair Economy

slide36

Who Has Benefited From the GWOT the Most?

Halliburton - 559% increase

L-3 Communications - 452% increase

slide37

Businessmen

&

Politicians

slide38

Since 2000, corporate profits have increased $235.5 Billion, a rise of 42.2% over 4 years(10.5% average per year).

From 1960 to 2000, the average yearly increase had been 4%-6.5%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

slide39

Political Contributions

The oil and gas industry has contributed $179.7 million since 1989 to federal candidates and political parties, 74% to Republicans.

The U.S. security-energy industry has removed itself from accountability while writing U.S. policy behind closed doors.

  • ChevronTexaco
  • - $8.9 million in individual, PAC and soft money donations xxsince 1989 (75% to Republicans)
  • - $38 million to lobby Congress since 1997
  • Exxon Mobil
  • - $8.2 million in individual, PAC and soft money donations xxsince 1989 (87% to Republicans)
  • - $62 million to lobby Congress since 1997

Source: The Money Behind the Debate Over Drilling in ANWR, CapitalEye, March 18, 2005

slide40

The U.S. Government Is Run By Energy and Defense Industry Executives

  • Top Bush Administration officials who have managed, provided professional services for or sat on boards of
  • BOTH ENERGY AND DEFENSE COMPANIES
  • Dick Cheney, Vice President
  • Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense
  • Paul Wolfowitz, President of the World Bank
  • Douglas Feith, Dick Cheney’s chief of staff
  • Robert Zoellick, U.S. Trade Representative

Source: The Role of the Arms Lobby, World Policy Institute, May 2002

slide41

Top Bush Administration officials who have managed, provided professional services for or sat on boards of

  • ENERGY COMPANIES
  • George W. Bush, President
  • Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State
  • … or were partners in firms representing ENERGY COMPANIES
  • Alberto Gonzales, Secretary of Department of Justice
  • … or worked as consultants, advisors or lobbyists
  • Zalmay Khalilzad, Special Envoy to Iraq

Source: The Role of the Arms Lobby, World Policy Institute, May 2002

slide42

Top Bush Administration officials who have managed, provided professional services for or sat on boards of

  • DEFENSE INDUSTRY COMPANIES
  • Dick Cheney, Vice President - Brown & Root Saudi Limited Co. board
  • Lynn Cheney, wife of VP - Lockheed Martin board
  • I. Lewis Libby, Dick Cheney’s chief of staff - Northrop Grumman xconsultant
  • Robert Zoellick, US Trade Representative - Said Holdings board
  • Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense - Gulfstream Aerospace (now xGeneral Dynamics) board
  • Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary of Defense - Northrop Grumman xconsultant
  • Stephen Hadley, Deputy National Security Advisor - ANSER board
  • Dov Zakheim, DoD Undersecretary for Comptroller - Northrop Grumman xboard
  • Douglas Feith, DoD Undersecretary for Policy - law firm representing xseveral defense contractors
  • David Chu, DoD Undersecretary for Personnel & Readiness - Rand VP
  • Larry C. Thompson, Deputy Attorney General - law firm representing xLockheed Martin

Source: The Role of the Arms Lobby, World Policy Institute, May 2002

slide43

Top Bush Administration officials who have managed, provided professional services for or sat on boards of

  • DEFENSE INDUSTRY COMPANIES
  • Edward Aldridge, Jr., DoD Undersecretary for Acquisition, Technology - xAerospace CEO, McDonnell Douglas Electronics VP, several defense xcontractor boards
  • Michael Wynne, DoD Undersecretary - General Dynamics VP
  • Thomas Christie, DoD Director, Office of Independent Testing & xEvaluation - Defense Analysis board
  • James Roche, Secretary of the Air Force - Northrop Grumman xElectronics President
  • Nelson F. Gibbs, Air Force Asst. Secretary for Installation, Environment - xNorthrop Grumman comptroller
  • Peter B. Teets, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force - Lockheed Martin xCOO
  • Gordon England, Secretary of the Navy - General Dynamics Executive xVP
  • Robert Card, Under Secretary, Department of Energy - nuclear industry xCEO and VP
  • Francis S. Blake, Deputy Secretary, Department of Energy - GE senior VP

Source: The Role of the Arms Lobby, World Policy Institute, May 2002

slide44

Top Bush Administration officials who have managed, provided professional services for or sat on boards of

  • DEFENSE INDUSTRY COMPANIES
  • Everet Beckner, Administrator of Defense Programs, Department of xEnergy - Lockheed Martin Deputy Chief Executive
  • Colin Powell, former Secretary of State - Gulfstream Aerospace (now xGeneral Dynamics) board
  • Grant Green, Under Secretary for Management, State Department - GMD xSolutions President and CEO
  • Richard Armitage, former Deputy Secretary of State - Raytheon and xMantech board + own defense consulting firm, Armitage Assoc. LLP
  • Otto Reich, Asst. Secretary for Latin America, Dept. of State - Lockheed xMartin lobbyist
  • Norman Mineta, Secretary of Transportation - Lockheed Martin VP
  • Michael Jackson, Deputy Secretary of Transportation - Lockheed Martin xVP and COO
  • John Marburger, Director, Science & Technology - Director Brookhaven xNational Laboratory
  • Theodore Olson, Solicitor General - Hughes Electronics professional xservices
  • AND MORE

Source: The Role of the Arms Lobby, World Policy Institute, May 2002

slide45

Politicians

&

Commanders

slide46

Government Receipts =80 - 85% fromIndividual Income Taxes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx& Social Insurance Contributions.

Corporate Income Taxesaccount for between 7 - 12%.

  • Miscellaneous - excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, customs duties, earnings by the Federal Reserve Banks and other miscellaneous

Source: U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Congressional Budget Office as of Oct. 2004

slide47

How Your Tax Dollars Get Spent

Discretionary Budget

Federal Budget Outlays - 2004

slide48

Discretionary Budget - 2004

2%

51%

47%

2004

Source: U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Congressional Budget Office as of Oct. 2004

Percentage of your income taxes that go for Department of Defense, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security Expenditures

= 51%

slide49

Department of Defense spending outdistances any other Federal Agency by 600% - 1000%.

Military & Security Expenditures

All Other Government Spending - Minus Entitlement Programs and Interest on the Public Debt

Source: U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Congressional Budget Office as of Oct. 2004

slide50

The United States spends the lions share of the world’s defense budget. The percentage is rising due to both increases in U.S. spending in the Global War on Terror (GWOT) and decreases in spending in other countries.

Saudi Arabia

U.K.

U.K.

Japan

Japan

Italy

Italy

France

U.S. 43.6%

France

U.S. 53.4%

Germany

2000

2004

Germany

Russia

Russia

China

China

Military Expenditures of the Nations With the Largest Armed Forces, % of Total

Source: The Military Balance. 2003-2004 (International Institute for Strategic Studies)

slide51

All Federal Employees -including Executive, Legislative and Judicial

There are 2.7 million civilian Federal employees and 1.4 million active duty military personnel. A full 50% of the Federal Workforce including military personnel works for the Department of Defense. Another 10% work in activities related to defense and security.

All Other Federal Employees

882,195

Postal Service

773,695

Homeland Security 149,059

Dept. of Defense - Civilian

667,192

Veterans Affairs 232,818

Active Duty Military

1,425,887

Federal Workers in Defense and Homeland Security

=60%

Source: Statistical Analysis and Services Division, U.S. Office of Personnel Management

slide53

How U.S. Strategy Affects You

Economic Effects

Blowback

slide54

Clinton Administration, last 4 years:

Federal Receipts = 28.25% increase

Military Spending = 8.8% increase

Other Gov’t Spending = 12.2% increase

Bush Administration, first 4 years:

Federal Receipts = - (7.17%) decrease

Military Spending = 55% increase

Other Gov’t Spending = 23.1% increase

= Tax Cuts

Source: U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Congressional Budget Office

slide55

Large increases in the Public Debt are driven by major WARS

World War I

World War II

Vietnam

Source: Bureau of Public Debt, U.S. Dept. of the Treasury

slide56

By 2010, Increased Spending(primarily Military and Security Expenditures) +Decreased Tax Revenueswill add an estimated $3.94 Trillion to the Public Debt - bringing it to $10 Trillion.

Gulf War

The accumulated U.S. Public Debt is $7.38 Trillion,nearly 4 times the 2004 Federal Government Net Receipts

Clinton Era Reduction in Defense Spending & Balanced Budget

Reaganomics and Increase in Defense Spending

GWOT

U.S. Public Debt (in billions), 1975 - 2004

Ford

Carter

Reagan

Bush I

Clinton

Bush II

Source: Bureau of Public Debt, U.S. Dept. of the Treasury

slide57

Every State is also in debt. In 2003, State debt equaled 58.5% of State Revenue.

Clinton

Bush

Surplus

Deficit

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

slide58

Between 2000 and 2003, nearly 5 million, (4,879,000) people joined the 31,054,000 already living in poverty.

Approximately 36 million people

Approximately 31 million people

Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

slide59

Food Stamp Expenditures were $10.329 billion more in 2004 than in 2000

An increase of 56.5%

U.S. Unemployment

The downturn in unemployment expenditures may be due to people exhausting their benefits rather than finding adequate employment.

Source: U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Congressional Budget Office as of Oct. 2004

slide60

While corporate profits have risen 42% since 2000, wages rose only 9%.

1997 - 2000

2000 - 2004

Growth in personal consumption slowed, even with a 19% decrease in personal taxes.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

slide61

Individual income taxes decreased 18.9% from 2000 to 2003, yet outstanding consumer credit increased ...

Increased Debt

And

Decreased Saving

Credit

Taxes

Savings

Credit

Taxes

Savings

Credit

Taxes

Savings

Credit

Taxes

Savings

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

… and savings dropped - to just 1.2% of income. In comparison, an average 10% of income was saved in 1970.

slide62

Per Capita Debt xx2004

Consumer Debt per capita $6,912

Federal Debt = $25,182 per capita

State Debt = $2,234 per capita

Total per capita Public Debt$27,416

TOTAL PER CAPITA DEBT$34,328

A family of four would owe an average of over $140,000 if all public and personal debts were called in.

slide63

Winners & Losers

  • Corporate Profit in general is UP
  • Defense Contractor Profit is way UP
  • Oil Company Profit is way UP
  • The U.S. Government is deeply in debt
  • Consumers are deeply in debt
  • 35,000 Americans have been injured or killed
  • An estimated 165,000 Iraqis, 141,000 of them xxcivilians, have been injured or killed

Winners

Losers

slide64

Iraqi War Expenses

Spending includes additional funds expended due to the war. It does not include regular pay for troops, future health care for wounded veterans and other future costs.

Spent on Operation Iraqi Freedom - April 3, 2005

$161 Billion

or $143,750 per minute

$54.4 billion April 2003 - supplemental appropriation

$70.6 billion November 2003 - supplemental appropriation

$21.5 billion Iraq War Pentagon funding for fiscal year 2005

$146.5 billion Total Allocated by April 2005

$61.0 billion February 2005 - supplemental requested

$207.6 billion Funds Required for Operation Iraqi Freedom - so far

April 2005

Source: National Priorities Project, www.costofwar.com

slide65

Opportunity Costs

2 years of Operation Iraqi Freedom could have paid for …

Domestic Spending

  • Head Start- 21,293,193 children for a year
  • Health Care -insurance for 96,265,683 children xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxfor a year
  • Affordable Housing -1,447,528 additional units
  • Elementary School Teachers- 2,786,055 hired
  • Four-Year College Scholarships-7,793,476

April 2005

Source: National Priorities Project, www.costofwar.com

slide66

Opportunity Costs

2 years of Operation Iraqi Freedom could have paid for …

Foreign Spending

  • World Hunger - Reducing the worlds 800 xxxmillion starving and undernourished people by half
  • AND
  • AIDS Epidemic - Mounting an effective xxxresponse to AIDS in low- and middle-income countries
  • AND
  • Immunizations - Immunizing every child in the xxxdeveloping world
  • for over 4 years

April 2005

Source: National Priorities Project, www.costofwar.com

slide67

How U.S. Strategy Affects the World

  • The United States has dominated the world economy since WWII and continues to do so.
  • The United States maintains global military supremacy and continues to enhance it.
  • Global politics and policies are heavily influenced by U.S. interests.
slide68

The U.S. dominates the world economy with a GDP of $11 Trillion,accounting for 25% of the world economy.

Just 5% of the world’s population is American.

Source: The Central Intelligence Agency, World Fact Book 2004

slide69

How Our Trading Partners Make Out

An Example

Percent of U.S. Oil Imports

Year of Highest per capita GDP

75.6% of America’s oil imports come from countries with stunted per capita economic growth and/or extreme income inequity.

Kuwait 2.2% 1975

Gabon 1.3% 1976

Saudi Arabia 19.8% 1977

Venezuela 11.2% 1977

Nigeria 8.5% 1977

Algeria 1.0% 1985

Russia 2.0% 1989

Iraq 4.6% 1991

Angola 4.0% 1992

About 1/2 of the countries supplying oil to the U.S. have not used the income to develop their own economies - the profits go instead to the ruling class, presumably keeping prices down.

Source: United Nations Development Report, 2003

slide70

Decade of Despair

54 countries are poorer now than in 1990

The top policy priority here is increasing equity, not just economic growth

  • 20 from Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 17 from Eastern Europe and the CIS
  • 6 from Latin America and the Caribbean
  • 6 from East Asia and the Pacific
  • 5 from Arab states.

In 34 countries, life expectancy has fallen.

Such reversals in survival were previously rare.

Source: United Nations Development Report, 2003

slide71

Blowback

Basing our security strategy on political, economic and military dominance drives instability.