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AODT The A dvanced O bjective D vorak T echnique JHT Progress Report - Latest Advancements. Timothy Olander, Christopher Velden, James Kossin, Anthony Wimmers, Howard Berger University of Wisconsin – Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). AODT

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aodt the a dvanced o bjective d vorak t echnique jht progress report latest advancements

AODT The Advanced Objective Dvorak TechniqueJHT Progress Report - Latest Advancements

Timothy Olander, Christopher Velden, James Kossin, Anthony Wimmers, Howard Berger

University of Wisconsin – Madison

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

slide2

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

JHT Status

  • Currently in Year-2 of support
  • Year-1 goals were achieved on-time
    • Delivery of initial AODT code to NOAA/CDB for
    • implementation within NAWIPS was completed successfully
  • Year-2 goals: Evaluate and refine N-AODT
    • New AODT version delivered to NOAA/CDB 31 January 2005
    • to be implemented in time for upcoming Atlantic TC season
slide3

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

Latest Advancements

  • Improved, objective TC center determination
    • Spiral and Ring analysis schemes added to current methods
  • New strengthening/weakening constraints
    • Based on scene types; augment current rules in DT
  • Modified latitude bias MSLP adjustment scheme
    • Only applied with scene types based on IR cloud temperature
  • Added Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) determination
    • Regression-based scheme from IR data in TCs with
    • well-defined eyes
slide4

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

Latest Advancements (cont.)

  • Enable user to add comments to history file
    • Up to 50 characters; can be viewed in history file listing
  • Restructured code as application library
    • Redefined code structure for integration into NAWIPS
      • as requested by NOAA/CDB
    • Easier future updates, version implements, etc.
slide5

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

Spiral Analysis

Hurricane Isabel

13 Sept 2005

15:15UTC

Spiral Analysis

Initial Position

Ring Analysis

Combo Analysis

Final Position

Ring Analysis

Initial Position

slide6

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

Spiral Analysis

Cyclone 20P

27 Feb 2005

11:25UTC

Spiral Analysis

Initial Position

Interpolated Official

Forecast Position

Ring Analysis

Combo Analysis

Final Position

Ring Analysis

Initial Position

slide7

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

Latest version (fully-automated) of CIMSS AODT

Validation vs. Recon MSLP (hPa)

Development sample: 1995–2003 Atlantic Seasons – 56 Total Storms

Independent test: 2004 Atlantic Season – 14 Total Storms

Op Center = Ave. of 3 Agency DT values

slide8

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

1995–2003 Atlantic Seasons – 56 Total Storms – MSLP vs. Recon

Formation Stage

Mature Stage

Dissipation Stage

slide9

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

slide10

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

slide11

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

Future Directions

  • Continue to work with TAFB analysts and TPC forecasters
  • to improve N-AODT performance
  • Conduct detailed statistical analysis of AODT performance
    • Identify AODT strengths and weaknesses, especially
    • with regards to scene type classifications
  • Provide periodic AODT updates to NOAA/CDB
  • Integrate AODT into satellite-based, multi-sensor TC intensity
  • estimation algorithm now under development
    • Poster by Velden et al.
slide12

AODT

The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique

Acknowledgements

  • NOAA/Joint Hurricane Testbed
  • NOAA/CDB/TPC Implementation Team
  • TAFB and SAB Analysts (AODT evaluators)