Transportation Modeling in Oregon: Overview of ODOT Statewide Integrated Model

1. Transportation Modeling in Oregon:Overview of ODOT Statewide Integrated Model Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Becky Knudson ODOT Transportation Planning Analysis Unit May 11th, 2006

2. Overview • Intro • Description of Statewide Model • Model Applications • Recap and Questions

3. Introduction • Transportation modeling in Oregon is a collaborative effort among many jurisdictions and public agencies • 1994 ODOT started the Statewide Model Improvement Program, established a steering committee • Mission to coordinate modeling efforts of state, regional and local agencies, promote development and use of state-of-the-art transportation modeling in Oregon

4. Introduction cont’d • Program was needed because prevalent modeling methods: • Could not provide information needed to meet state and federal mandates • Or answer questions being asked by the public and policy-makers • Decision-makers needed: • Estimates of effects of policies • Tools to measure performance

5. Statewide Model

6. Statewide Model: What is it? • Integrated model linking the economy, land use, and transportation elements across state • Statewide model based on production activity - inputs and outputs, and commodity flow • Simulates land use and travel behavior mathematically using several computer programs • Provides a dynamic, price sensitive representation of state economic activity

7. Statewide Model: How is it Useful? • Provides objective and unbiased comparison between alternative policies • Reveals trade-offs between different policies • Reveals synergies gained by combining policies in different ways • Integrated analysis does not dictate policy, it provides information on how policies will likely play out

8. Information Produced • Statewide model designed to reveal differences in terms of forecast magnitude and direction • Forecast change in employment, trips, vehicle-miles-of-travel, economic production levels • NOT designed to predict outcomes, forecast values, or prescribe solutions

9. Using the Statewide Model We Have Learned: • The types of transportation improvements and where they are made affects where jobs and people locate • Different tax structures affect where firms locate and where workers live • The supply of land affects the price of land, in turn affecting where firms and households locate.

10. Application Example: Bridge Limitations Study 2002

11. The Problem • Over 500 Oregon bridges identified as cracking 2001 • Nearly 25% of Oregon bridges are beyond their 50 year expected life • Cost to repair or replace bridges $4.7 billion • Statewide Model used to evaluate alternative bridge investment strategies • Final Investment strategy based on • Bridge costs • Economic costs • Community & regional Impacts

12. Alternative Solutions • No additional bridge investment would lead to • More trucks on road • Higher maintenance & preservation costs • Less future employment growth from higher transport costs • Fix interstate bridges: • Ignores routes connecting to interstate system • Benefits state economy, but harms coastal and central region of state

13. Best Bridge Strategy • One deficient bridge impedes the entire corridor, ODOT shifted from initial “worst-first” strategy to corridor approach • Improve routes parallel to the interstates to accommodate detoured heavy freight loads • The order in which roads are opened to heavy loads affects regional economy and livability

14. ODOT Recommendation • $2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to $4.7B bridge problem • Address detour routes before interstate construction • Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half the cost

15. STAGE 1 $92M, 48 bridges

16. STAGE 2 $657M, 161 bridges

17. STAGE 3 $567M, 147 bridges

18. STAGE 4 $234M, 94 bridges

19. STAGE 5 $116M, 46 bridges

20. Application Example: Central Oregon

21. LegislativeDirective: Study New Freeway in Eastern Oregon The model was used to evaluate the potential for a new freeway to divert development and traffic from Western Oregon to Central and Eastern Oregon.

22. Application Example: Newberg-Dundee Bypass

23. Newberg-Dundee: Highway Bypass Induced Growth Analysis The model was used to examine the potential effects of a bypass on growth of population, jobs and travel. Analysis was part of an Environmental Impact Study for the proposed bypass which resides on a major recreation route and commuter-shed of Portland

24. Modeling/Analysis Findings • A bypass: • Stimulates economic growth in McMinnville • Supports greater travel for all purposes • Has minimal effects on smaller communities in Yamhill County • Commuter effects vary with a bypass: • Increased commuting by residents in McMinnville vicinity to Portland • Increased share of Newberg area commuters to McMinnville (lower share to Portland)

25. Recap • Integrated analysis blends the features of land use, transportation and economic activity together to represent the interactions and reveal net effects of change • Statewide model based on production activity, commodity flow, inputs and outputs • Valuable tool for policy makers to evaluate alternative policy choices.

26. Questions Becky Knudson Senior Transportation Analyst Transportation Planning Analysis Unit 555 13th St NE, Suite 2 Salem, OR. 97301 (503) 986-4113 rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us