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Key Considerations in Linking Permafrost, Ecosystems and Run-off. Readiness of Existing Models for Coupling Land-Atmosphere Water & Energy Cycles. William J. Gutowski, Jr. Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University. Complexity of Arctic terrain.

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key considerations in linking permafrost ecosystems and run off

Key Considerations in Linking Permafrost, Ecosystems and Run-off

Readiness of Existing Models

for Coupling

Land-Atmosphere Water & Energy Cycles

William J. Gutowski, Jr.

Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences

Iowa State University

complexity of arctic terrain

Complexity of Arctic terrain

A range of “permanent” land surface types

(forest, tundra, wetlands, glaciers)

2. Seasonal variation: snow cover, freeze/thaw of soil and water bodies

3. Mix of hydrological landscapes

(unorganized flow  major rivers)

are the fluxes couplings well modeled
Atmosphere

Are the fluxes (couplings) well modeled?

(water availability, nutrients)

Ecosystems

Surface Water

Permafrost

(snow cover, albedo)

(ponding, wet soil)

issue horizontal resolution of model
Borehole Locations

Issue: Horizontal Resolution of Model

~ 0.5˚ grid

Great Bear Lake

Mackenzie River

issue vertical resolution of model

Issue: Vertical Resolution of Model

Active Layer Depth Over Permafrost

(31 stations in Siberia; Frauenfeld et al., 2004)

issue vertical resolution of model1
Active Layer Depth Over Permafrost

(31 stations in Siberia; Frauenfeld et al., 2004)

Issue: Vertical Resolution of Model

10 cm

40 cm

100 cm

NOAH LSM

200 cm

(Chen and Dudhia, 2001)

issue standard landcover types
1) Broadleaf-evergreen trees

2) Broadleaf-deciduous trees

3) Broadleaf and needleleaf trees

4) Needleleaf-evergreen trees

5) Needleleaf-deciduous trees (larch)

6) Broadleaf trees with groundcover

7) Groundcover only

8) Broadleaf shrubs with groundcover

9) Broadleaf shrubs with bare soil

10) Dwarf trees/shrubs with groundcover (tundra)

11) Bare soil

12) Cultivations

13) Wetland

14) Dry coastal complex

15) Water

16) Glacial

Issue: Standard Landcover Types

Sufficient Detail?

Both specified as

“12) Cultivations”

 Need “Data Rich” Approach

further challenges to modeling

Further Challenges to Modeling

  • Movement of water and heat in frozen soil
  • Runoff sensitivity to presence/absence of permafrost
  • Annual cycle of river ice
  • Change in landscape structure (e.g., slumping with permafrost decline)
  • Change in wetlands (slow, disorganized flow)
  • Ecosystem evolution as permafrost and runoff change (dynamic vegetation modeling)
  • Permafrost evolution as ecosystems change
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