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Mobility Technology 2002. A Report on Emerging Technologies in Passenger Car, Air Transportation and Heavy Duty Industries. Presentation Outline. MTPF Background Push & Pull Technologies MTPF Themes Assessment Of Industry Needs And Emerging Technologies For Each Theme

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mobility technology 2002

Mobility Technology 2002

A Report on Emerging Technologies in Passenger Car, Air Transportation and Heavy Duty Industries

presentation outline
Presentation Outline
  • MTPF Background
  • Push & Pull Technologies
  • MTPF Themes
  • Assessment Of Industry Needs And Emerging Technologies For

Each Theme

  • Common Technologies
  • Results, Conclusions, Next Steps
background
Background
  • Mobility Technology Planning Forum (MTPF)
    • Organized by SAE Emerging Technology Advisory Board
    • Objective - Advise SAE Board Of Directors, Other Operating Boards & Committees, & Leaders On Emerging Technologies
    • Generally Every Three Years
    • To Be Used For Strategic Planning
  • Written Report To The Board - March, 2002
  • Oral Presentations
    • SAE World Congress (March 6, 2002),
    • World Aviation Congress (November 5-7, 2002), Sheraton

Crescent Hotel, Phoenix, Arizona

    • International Truck & Bus Meeting and Exhibition (November 18-20, 2002),

Cobo Center, Detroit, Michigan

etab mtpf leadership
ETAB & MTPF Leadership
  • SAE Emerging Technology Advisory Board
    • Objective - Advise SAE Leadership On Emerging Technologies
    • Led By Dr. Jamie Hsu, General Motors Research & Development Center
  • MTPF Organizers
    • Dr. Robert Krieger, The Boeing Company
    • Mr. Bharat Vedak, Cummins Inc.
  • MTPF Session Chairmen
    • Passenger Car - Mr. Tom Moore, DaimlerChrysler Corporation
    • Air Transportation - Mr. Don Nilson, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company
    • Heavy Duty - Mr. Steve Craney, Riverside Electronics Limited
process overview mtpf 2002
Process Overview MTPF 2002
  • Technology Experts From Mobility Industries @ Scottsdale -

January, 2002

    • Passenger Car, Air Transportation, Heavy Duty
  • Focused On Three Themes
    • Global Design & Build
    • Universally Friendly
    • Have It My Way
  • Futurist & Visionary Speakers To Stimulate Thinking
  • For Each Major Theme:
    • Break-out Sessions By Industry
    • Industry Cross-Linking Sessions To Identify Common Technologies
    • Storyboard Technology Summary For The Themes
  • Follow-up E-mail Survey On “Push” Technologies
general observations
General Observations
  • MTPF 2002 Met Expectations
    • Alert Mechanism On Emerging Technologies
  • Surprising Uniformity In Customer Needs In Seemingly Different Industry Segments Of Mobility Industry
    • Passenger Car, Air Transportation, Heavy Duty
  • Amazing Convergence Of Technologies Between Industry Segments
    • Information Technologies
    • Wireless Communications
    • Materials
    • Flexible Manufacturing
    • Virtual Reality Tools
  • Convergence Of Customer Needs & Technologies Reinforce SAE’s Role In Representing The Mobility Industry On Significant Issues
  • Participation In MTPF Educational, “Constructive Fun”
    • 100% Positive Response In Survey
push pull technologies
Push & Pull Technologies
  • Pull Technologies - Current Or Imminent Technologies Sought (“Pulled”) By Industry To Fulfill Identified Customer Needs
    • Proven Concepts
    • Need Additional Engineering Development
    • Need To Be Made Production Ready
    • Solutions Addressing Known Problems/Needs
  • Push Technologies - Advanced Concepts That Need Considerable Work To Bring To Fruition
    • Need “Push” From Government, Universities & Industry
    • Immature Technologies
    • Technological Solutions Creating New Opportunities
push pull technologies continued
Push & Pull Technologies (Continued….)
  • MTPF 2002 Process Was Customer-Needs Oriented
    • Break-out sessions identified customer needs, followed by technologies to meet those needs.
    • Industry segment output as starting point for cross-linking sessions.
    • Fast cycle times & reliability needs require technologies to be ready well ahead of placing in customers’ hands.
    • Resulted in a preference in the MTPF towards “pull” technologies.
  • Follow-up E-mail Survey Of MTPF Participants To Identify Additional “Push” Technologies
mtpf results
MTPF Results
  • Consolidated Around 3 Themes:
    • Global Design & Build - Industry needs to have global designs and the capability to build products around the world.
    • Universally Friendly - Societal need to have environmentally friendly products “from cradle to grave”.
    • Have It My Way - Customer (end user) need to have the product tailored to his/her specific need.
  • For Each Of The Themes, Determined:
    • Customer Needs By Industry
    • Technologies By Industry
    • Common Technologies Across All Industries
  • Lessons Learned - Recommend A “Push” Technology Brain-Storming Session Be Added To Future MTPFs
slide11

Universally Friendly

Passenger Car Industry

Needs

Technologies

Common Areas

Heavy Duty

Industry

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)

Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

Common

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

Needs

Technologies

Aerospace Industry

Needs

Technologies

universally friendly passenger car
Universally Friendly - Passenger Car
  • Identified 26 Needs And Challenges
  • Top Needs
    • Congestion
    • Safety
    • Inexpensive And Robust
    • Upgradeable Technologies
    • Future Feature Enablers
    • Recyclability
    • Driver Distraction
    • Passenger Comfort
    • User Friendly (Non-Operational/Operational)
    • Customer Re-Configurable
universally friendly passenger car13
Universally Friendly - Passenger Car
  • Identified 28 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • Vehicle Network (Intra-Vehicle)
    • Vehicle Network (Inter-Vehicle)
    • Design For Flexibility And Future Requirements
    • Vision Technologies
    • Voice/Speech Technologies
    • Sensors/Actuators
    • Intelligent Transportation Systems
    • Front And Rear Obstacle Avoidance
    • On Condition-Based Maintenance
    • Operator Simplicity
universally friendly air transportation
Universally Friendly - Air Transportation
  • Identified 21 Needs And Challenges
  • Top Needs
    • More Accurate Fault Diagnostics
    • High Fidelity And Accurate Simulations
    • Minimum Of Training Required For Product Use
    • Operator Overload
    • Cultural Differences In Interpretation
    • Operational Override
    • Situation Dependent Man-Machine Interfaces
    • Virtual Testing Of Complex Systems
    • Design For Maintainability
    • Rapid Prototyping For Better Products
universally friendly air transportation15
Universally Friendly - Air Transportation
  • Identified 20 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • Embedded Sensors, Health Management, Prognostics, MEMS-Based Systems
    • Expert Systems, Man-Machine Interfaces (Operator Information Overload), Biological System Monitors
    • Threat Detection
    • Self-Correcting Or Adaptive Controls
    • Comfortable, Health Ergonomics/Environment, Thermal, Humidity
    • Re-Configurability
    • Knowledge Database
    • High Data Rate/Communications For Entertainment
    • Rapid Prototyping
universally friendly heavy duty
Universally Friendly - Heavy Duty
  • Identified 30 Needs And Challenges
  • Top Needs
    • Fault Tolerant
    • Ergonomics
    • Configurable
    • Reusable
    • Repairable
    • Minimum Operator Skills - Migrating Toward Autonomy
    • Upgradeable
    • Conforms To Regulations
    • Safer Or The Perception Of Safer
    • Remanufacturable
universally friendly heavy duty17
Universally Friendly - Heavy Duty
  • Identified 19 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • Modular Design
    • Knowledge Management Systems
    • Independent Subsystems - Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive
    • Telematics
    • Secure And Robust Internal And External Networks
    • Open “Architecture”
    • Advanced Materials - Plastics, Fluids, Smart
    • Exhaust Aftertreatments
    • Smart Sensors
    • Voice Activation
universally friendly storyboard summary
Universally Friendly - Storyboard Summary
  • 6 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries
    • System Design For Flexibility And Modular Independent Subsystems, Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive
    • Telematics/High Bandwidth Data Transfer
    • Knowledge Management/Expert Systems
    • Prognostics/Embedded Sensors
    • Object Detection And Recognition
    • Human Machine Interface
slide19

Universally Friendly

Air Transportation Needs

More Accurate Fault Diagnostics

High Fidelity & Accurate Simulation

Top Technologies

Minimum of Training Required for Product Use

Embedded Sensors

Operator Overload

- Health Management

Cultural Difference in Interpretation

- Prognostics

Operational Override

- MEMS-Based System

Situation Dependent Man-Machine Interface

Expert Systems

Virtual Testing of Complete Systems

- Man-Machine Interface

Design for Maintainability

-Biological System Monitors

Rapid

Prototyping

for Better Products

Threat Detection

Self-Correcting or Adaptive Control

Comfortable

- Health Ergonomics

- Environmental, Thermal, Humidity

Reconfigurable

Knowledge Database

Rapid Prototyping

High Data Rate/Communication for Entertainment

Common Areas

System Design for Reliability and Modular

Independent

Subsystem

, Intelligent,

Fault Tolerant, Adaptive

Telematics

/High Bandwidth Data Transfer

Knowledge Management/Expert Systems

Prognostics/Embedded Sensors

Object Detection and Recognition

Human Machine Interface

slide20

Global Design & Build

Passenger Car Industry

Needs

Technologies

Common Areas

Heavy Duty

Industry

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)

Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

Common

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

Needs

Technologies

Aerospace Industry

Needs

Technologies

global design build passenger car
Global Design & Build - Passenger Car
  • Identified 33 Needs And Challenges
  • Top Needs
    • Congestion
    • Differences Among Regions (Languages, Customs, etc.)
    • Fuel Economy & Emissions
    • Common Platforms But Unique Products
    • High Volume, Cost-Effective Manufacturing
global design build passenger car22
Global Design & Build - Passenger Car
  • Identified 27 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • E-Collaboration
    • Tools To Enable Flexible Production
    • Common CAD Tools
    • Hydrogen Supply (Fuel Cells)
    • Designer Materials - Light, Strong, Affordable
global design build air transportation
Global Design & Build - Air Transportation
  • Identified 23 Needs And Challenges
  • Top Needs
    • Ability For Competitors To Work As A Global Community
    • Reconciling Mass Production With Optimization
    • Competitive Pressures
    • E-Collaboration
    • Variation Control
    • Knowledge Capture To Avoid Mistakes
global design build air transportation24
Global Design & Build - Air Transportation
  • Identified 20 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • Broadband Communications
    • Information Security & Integrity
    • System Engineering Standards & Protocols
    • Virtual Reality Tools
    • Knowledge Management
    • Communication Tools
global design build heavy duty
Global Design & Build - Heavy Duty
  • Identified 12 Needs And Challenges
  • Top Needs
    • Durability & Reliability
    • Coordinated Worldwide Operations
    • Productivity
    • Cost
    • Emissions
    • Safety
global design build heavy duty26
Global Design & Build - Heavy Duty
  • Identified 13 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • Communications Protocols
    • Smart, Autonomous Machines
    • Exhaust Aftertreatment
    • Electric Drives
global design build storyboard summary
Global Design & Build - Storyboard Summary
  • 6 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries
    • E-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)
    • Energy Conversion & Management
    • Emission Technologies
    • On-Board Diagnostics
    • Autonomous Controls
    • Improved Human-Machine Interfaces
slide28

Global Design & Build

Air Transportation Needs

Ability For Competitors To Work As A Community

Mass Production vs. Optimization Balance

Competitive Pressures

Variation Control

e-Collaboration

Knowledge Capture To Avoid Mistakes

Top Technologies

Broadband Communications

Information Security and Integrity

System Engineering Standards and Protocols

Virtual Reality Tools

Knowledge Management

Communication Tools

Common Areas

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)

Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

slide29

Have It My Way

Passenger Car Industry

Needs

Technologies

Common Areas

Heavy Duty

Industry

e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)

Energy Conversion and Management

Emissions Technologies

Common

On-Board Diagnostics

Autonomous Controls

Improved Human Machine Interface

Needs

Technologies

Aerospace Industry

Needs

Technologies

have it my way passenger car
Have It My Way - Passenger Car
  • Identified 33 Needs And Challenges
  • Top Needs
    • Congestion
    • Diversification Of Languages, Customer Needs Worldwide
    • Value Of Time/Convenience (Customers Want Service On Their Schedule Not On The Manufacturer’s Schedule)
    • Environment, Health And Safety
    • Inexpensive And Robust
    • Upgradeable Technologies & Customer Re-Configurable Features
have it my way passenger car31
Have It My Way - Passenger Car
  • Identified 28 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • Multi-Protocol Architecture
    • Modular Design
    • 7-Day Car
    • Plug-And-Play Architecture
    • Personalization Cards (Seats, Radios, Mirrors, etc.)
    • Recyclable Interiors
    • Wireless/Web Connections - Blue Tooth Telephones
have it my way air transportation
Have It My Way - Air Transportation
  • Identified 5 Needs And Challenges
    • Configuration Control Challenges
    • Modification Downtime Costs Money
    • Customer (Government) Dictates Requirements, No Supplier Input
    • Obsolescence Causes Spare Parts Problem
    • Design Changes By Subcontractors Cause Problems
have it my way air transportation33
Have It My Way - Air Transportation
  • Identified 14 Technologies
  • Top Technologies
    • Optimization Tool For Business Decisions – Coupling Engineering And Business
    • Quantum Computing, Wireless Componentry
    • Rapid Prototyping/Electrons To Parts
    • Modeling Plus Simulation/Virtual Reality
    • Open Systems Architecture
    • Modular Design Processes/Systems Engineering
    • Smart Card With As-Built History
have it my way heavy duty
Have It My Way - Heavy Duty
  • Identified 4 Needs And Challenges
    • “Traditional Customer” Is Changing – Rental, Leasing, “Power By The Hour”, Other
    • Duty Cycle Changes Drive Need For “Flexible Products”
    • Emphasis on Performance/Functionality, not Hardware
    • Competition Is Driving To Lowest Product & Operating Costs
have it my way heavy duty35
Have It My Way - Heavy Duty
  • Identified 9 Technologies
    • Configurable Performance – Modular Stand-Alone Design
    • Performance Monitoring
    • Intelligent Systems Connected To External Communications Tools
    • Sensors
    • Flexible Manufacturing Environment – Speed To Market
    • Knowledge Management Systems To Understand Customer Needs
    • Advanced Materials – Coatings, Lubricants
    • Automatic Qualification Systems
    • “Virtual Reality” Tools
have it my way storyboard summary
Have It My Way - Storyboard Summary
  • 7 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries
    • Modular Design
    • Virtual Reality Tools
    • Knowledge-Based Product Support
    • Plug & Play – Open Architecture
    • Seven-Day Car
    • Pervasive Computing
    • Tools To Integrate Business & Engineering
slide37

Have It My Way

Air Transportation Needs

Configuration Control & Challenges

Modification Downtime Costs

Money

Customization Options

Obsolescence

Top Technologies

Optimization Tools for Business Decisions

- Coupling Engineering & Business

Quantum Computing, Wireless

Componentry

Rapid Prototyping, Electronic Parts

Modeling Plus Simulation Virtual Reality

Open System Architecture

Modular Design Processes

- System Engineering

Smart Card with As-Built History

Passenger Car Needs

Congestion

Diversification of Customer Need - Worldwide

Value of Customer Time, Convenience

Environment, Health & Safety

Inexpensive & Robust

Upgradeable

Features

Top Technologies

Multi-Protocol Architecture

Modular Design

Seven Day Car

Plug & Play Architecture

Personalization Card

- Seats, Radio, Mirrors

Recyclable Interiors

Wireless-Web Connections

-

Blue Tooth

Telephone

push technologies identified after mtpf
Push Technologies Identified After MTPF
  • On-board Hydrogen Generation
  • NaBH Fuel - Safe, Dense Storage of Hydrogen
  • Hybrid Electric Vehicles & Systems
    • Electric Drives/Fuel Cells
  • Intelligent Vehicle Systems
    • Interface With Intelligent Highways
    • Electronic Safety Cocoon Systems
    • Drive-By Wireless Systems, Operator-Assist
    • Autonomous Vehicles
    • Voice-Activated Systems
  • MEMS-Based Systems
push technologies
Push Technologies
  • Short Range Wireless Technology ( i.e. -Blue Tooth)
  • Smart Cards - With As-Built History, Or Used For Customized Configurations
  • Designer Materials
  • Diesel Exhaust NOx Absorbers
  • Energy Recovery & Storage Technologies
  • Nano-Technology
  • Self-Assembling Materials
    • Spintronics
summary common technologies identified
Summary - Common Technologies Identified
  • E-Collaboration (Virtual Tools)
  • Energy Conversion & Management
  • Emission Technologies
  • On-board Diagnostics
  • Autonomous Controls
  • Improved Human-Machine Interfaces
  • System Design For Flexibility And Modular Independent Subsystems, Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive
  • Telematics/High Bandwidth Data Transfer
  • Knowledge Management/Expert Systems
summary common technologies identified continued
Summary - Common Technologies Identified (Continued)
  • Prognostics/Embedded Sensors
  • Object Detection And Recognition
  • Modular Design
  • Virtual Reality Tools
  • Knowledge-Based Product Support
  • Plug & Play – Open Architecture
  • Seven-Day Car
  • Pervasive Computing
  • Tools To Integrate Business & Engineering
conclusions next steps
Conclusions & Next Steps
  • MTPF 2002 Was Successful
    • Served As An Alert Mechanism
    • Several “Pull”, “Push” And “AHA !” Technologies Identified
    • Great Learning & Networking Opportunity
  • Convergence Of Needs And Technologies In The Mobility Industry
  • Recommend Holding Next MTPF In 3 Years
    • Should Include Some MTPF 2002 Organizers/Participants
    • Add A Break-out Session For “Push” Technologies
  • Next Steps In The Hands Of The SAE Board & Operating Boards
    • ETAB To Be Available To Present Findings
  • Distribution To Participants, Engineering VPs And Through SAE Website
  • Thanks To SAE Staff, ETAB & MTPF Participants