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Mesoscale Predictability in Monterey Bay: Synoptic vs. Local Analysis for Smoke Dispersion Forecasts

Explore the effects of synoptic vs. mesoscale details on smoke dispersion in Monterey Bay, validating model forecasts for sea breeze and topography interactions. Assess the variability and accuracy of lagged mesoscale forecasts for summer weather using MM5 model.

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Mesoscale Predictability in Monterey Bay: Synoptic vs. Local Analysis for Smoke Dispersion Forecasts

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  1. Landfalling cyclone from Oct. 27, 1999 at 1800UTC

  2. Variability of Smoke Dispersion in Monterey Bay Region Dependence on Synoptic vs. mesoscale details Accuracy of forecasts

  3. Local Analysis of Mesonet Observations Use in mesoscale model initialization Process studies of sea breeze and flow interaction with topography Validation of 3 and 4km model forecasts

  4. LTJG Jodi Beattie Dr. Wendell Nuss A Numerical Investigation of Mesoscale Predictability Lagged mesoscale forecasts used to assess spread and uncertainty for summer season using MM5 model forecasts • Diurnal Cycle • A large source of uncertainty • MM5 does not accurately depict this cycle Dominate mesoscale features (coastal jet, mountain-valley circulations) are handled reasonably well, though the details show a fair amount of uncertainty • Topography • Largest source of uncertainty • All features observed in this study are related to terrain

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