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How High Can the Commodities Bull Go?. We are in a commodities bull market. Commodities started rising around 2000 Some commodities were at their lowest levels in over a century Just about everything has been going up Beginning to get media coverage

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we are in a commodities bull market
We are in a commodities bull market
  • Commodities started rising around 2000
  • Some commodities were at their lowest levels in over a century
  • Just about everything has been going up
  • Beginning to get media coverage
  • Many wondering if it's almost over or if this is just the beginning
  • We may be half-way through; plenty of opportunities left for investors and speculators
difference between secular cyclical trends
Difference between secular/cyclical trends
  • Cyclical trends last a few years
    • Ex: Stocks were in a cyclical bear from 2000-2003 and a cyclical bull from 2003-2007
  • Secular trends (big picture) last two decades
    • Ex: Stocks have been were in a secular bull market from 1980 to 2000, and have been in a secular bear market from 2000 to the present
  • Commodities and stocks usually run inverse to one another
1970s commodity boom
1970s Commodity Boom
  • Best comparison to current boom
  • Lots of similarities
    • Supply-Demand imbalance
    • Inflation
    • War
    • Pessimism
  • A good guide to what could happen today
recap
Recap
  • In the 1970s...
    • The S&P dropped 50%
    • Corn rose 3x
    • Sugar rose 17x
    • Gold rose 23x
    • Silver rose 27x
the commodities bull is not over
The Commodities Bull is Not Over
  • Investors need to keep in mind the long-term, secular trend
    • Don't get scared out by the dips
    • Avoid frequent buying/selling
    • ETFs are great
  • Traders should buy on the dips and keep enough margin to allow for wide swings
    • Don't let your bullishness get the best of you
    • There will be dips; they are good buying oppt's
good resources
Good resources
  • “Hot Commodities” by Jim Rogers
  • ChartsRus.com: Tons of interesting long-term charts
  • TimingCharts.com: Best site for futures charts
  • Futures.TradingCharts.com: Intraday quotes and historical charts