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The Experience of An ABS Graduate. Chris McKendry Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS-SSAI Careers Night 12 April 2012. My Background. Bachelor of Science at UNSW Honours in Statistics Thesis on Time Series ABS Cadetship Work Experience in Time Series between semesters

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the experience of an abs graduate

The Experience of An ABS Graduate

Chris McKendry

Australian Bureau of Statistics

ABS-SSAI Careers Night 12 April 2012

my background
My Background
  • Bachelor of Science at UNSW
    • Honours in Statistics
    • Thesis on Time Series
  • ABS Cadetship
    • Work Experience in Time Series between semesters
    • Study support for Honours
  • Graduate Program (Jan 2011)
    • 13 months in Time Series
    • Recently moved to Survey Methodology
perks i experienced at the abs
Perks I Experienced at the ABS
  • Consistent extra-curricular activities
    • Trivia, tennis, soccer, basketball, touch footy, board games
  • Access to training
    • SAS, Project Management, Economic Statistics, Statistical Reporting, Time Series, Survey Methods
  • Networking and Travel
    • Interstate travel is completely normal
    • Represent your section / division / organisation in various forums / events
perks of the abs
Perks of the ABS
  • FLEXITIME (!!!!)
    • Like to start late and finish late???
    • Like to start early and finish early???
    • Wish to coordinate work hours with other studies???
    • Have kids to pick up from school???
    • Like to combine public holidays with flexi-hours???
  • Colleagues with similar talents and interests
    • Programming, Maths, Statistics, Econometrics
graduate year in mdmd
Graduate Year in MDMD
  • Rotations Scheme
    • Rotate at 10 months and 18 months
    • Develop >= 3 disciplines in the first 2.5 years
  • Sections of work
    • Data Confidentialisation, Data-Linking, Operation Research, Sampling, CPI estimation, Time Series, Econometrics
  • Corporate Responsibilities
    • Coordinating social activities
    • Participate in MDMD seminars
my grad project
My Grad Project
  • Is a pretty good example of an output useful to the business / policy / research community
  • Not meant to be Earth shattering
    • But demonstrates what kind of technical skills are useful within MDMD
my grad project1
My Grad Project

Background in Seasonal Adjustment

Monthly Hours Worked In Australia (Original)

  • Original Data
  • Seasonality
  • Moving Public Holidays
  • Moving School Holidays
my grad project2
My Grad Project

Background in Seasonal Adjustment

Monthly Hours Worked In Australia (Seasonally Adjusted)

  • Seasonally Adjusted
  • Less volatile
  • Comparable Months
  • Complimentary to Unemployment Rate
my grad project3
My Grad Project

Background to ABS Hours Worked Series

  • Relevance
  • Key economic indicator
  • Effects of Policy
  • Natural Disasters
  • Economic Trends / Shocks
  • Users
  • RBA
  • Treasury
  • ABS
  • DEEWR

Cross-Sectional Splits

Sex State Part/Full time Age

my grad project4
My Grad Project

Reconciliation

  • Publish SA HW in Sex by Status splits BUT
  • Seasonally adjustment not linear
  • Sum of SA Components SA Adjusted Aggregate

Job

Status

slide12

My Grad Project

Reconciliation

  • Solution
  • Time series reconciliation
  • 6 constraints to meet for each time (easy and standard)

Job

Status

slide13

My Grad Project

Reconciliation: 3D Aggregation Structure

State

  • 3D Aggregation Structure
  • Sex by Status by State
  • 63 constraints PER OBSERVATION
  • Quality Concerns
  • Meet constraints
  • Maintain Level
  • Maintain Temporal Movements

Sex

F/P- time

slide14

My Grad Project

You wanted maths at work right?