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Vulnerability & Health. Climate & Climate Change Dr Mark Cresswell. Topics. The ‘problem’ of malaria & health end-users Malaria – background GIS & Remote Sensing Spatial and Temporal change MARA The future………. Problem - Health. Health and disease often has a spatial component

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vulnerability health

Vulnerability &Health

Climate &

Climate Change

Dr Mark Cresswell

topics
Topics
  • The ‘problem’ of malaria & health end-users
  • Malaria – background
  • GIS & Remote Sensing
  • Spatial and Temporal change
  • MARA
  • The future………..
problem health
Problem - Health
  • Health and disease often has a spatial component
  • Climatic, environmental and socio-economic variables affect health
  • Epidemics and outbreaks spread across a region – either as a function of movement of people or environmental factors
problem malaria
Problem - malaria
  • Malaria is a tropical disease
  • Symptoms are caused by a parasite (of the genus Plasmodium)
  • Parasite is transmitted by a Vector (female mosquito of the genus Anopheles)
  • Malaria kills mostly children (~2M/yr WHO estimate)
health end users
Health End Users
  • The health community are better informed about remote sensing and climate model technologies
  • Many see RS and climate modelling as a means of improving cost-effectiveness

>1M deaths a year

Up to 500M cases of acute illness a year

Up to 50K cases of neurological damage a year

Up to 400K episodes of severe anaemia in pregnancy

Up to 300K low-birthweight babies

B Greenwood (2004) – Nature Vol 430, 2004

slide8

The most fundamental environmental controlling factors are:

  • Temperature (development and survival)
  • Rainfall (needed for mosquito breeding cycle)
  • Humidity (often a threshold of 60%RH is quoted)
  • Vegetation (linked to humidity in some ways)
  • If the air is too dry the insect will desiccate – it uses night-time feeding and vegetation microhabitat strategies for survival
slide9

The following projected changes to our climate will make the prevalence of diseases such as malaria more acute:

  • Enhanced precipitation in wet season
  • Warmer temperatures in upland areas as temperatures rise
  • Changes in vegetation patterns
  • Floods in lowland areas
  • Migration of refugees as a result of extreme weather
slide11

In the 2080s it is estimated that some 290 million additional people worldwide will be exposed to malaria due to climate change

(McMichael et al, 2003)

gis and remote sensing
GIS and Remote Sensing
  • The problem of tackling any spatially dependent disease is more easy with a GIS system
  • Malaria has many layers – both natural (environmental) and socio-economic
  • The GIS layers paradigm allows models to be run easily
slide26

Most layers of biologically relevant environmental information are combined within a Geographical Information System (GIS)

slide27

NOAA-AVHRR

METEOSAT

spatial temporal change
Spatial & Temporal change
  • Malaria transmission patterns follow environmental conditions
  • Spatial limits set by rainfall, temperature and vegetation
  • Seasonal nature of environmental factors explains seasonal cyclicity of malaria
  • Malaria “season” follows rainy season
risk mapping
Risk Mapping
  • We can use a GIS to host a combined risk model using a number of relevant epidemiological equations – driven by remotely sensed data
  • Forecasts of possible outbreaks can be used to assist mitigation activities
slide40
MARA
  • Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa
  • MARA/ARMA has provided the first continental maps of malaria distribution and the first evidence-base burden of disease estimates
  • The Eco-System and Health Analysis Workshop (ESHAW) in West Africa has produced the first sub-continental malaria transmission risk map in 1999
mara method
MARA Method
  • Observed case data is collected from a wide a geographical area as possible (historical records and newly generated data)
  • All data is georeferenced and inserted into a relational database
  • Geostatistical analyses are used in GIS linked to the database to create spatial queries
  • Independent models are used to create a variety of modelled indictors and risk factors
mara method42
MARA Method
  • Predictive modelling allows estimation of data in areas where no empirical observations exist
  • Where gaps exist, interpolation methods are used – sometimes with environmental information as a means of weighting risk
  • Data used is primarily:
    • Incidence
    • Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR)
    • Parasite ratio (parasite prevalence)
mara method43
MARA Method
  • Objective is atlas providing seasonality, endemicity and geographical specificity
  • A hierarchy of spatial scales is used:
    • Continental scale (broad, climate based)
    • Sub-continental (uses ecological zones)
    • Regional or national scale (ecology and climate)
    • 30 km2 scale at administrative units
the future
The future…..
  • Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI)
  • Funded by Bill & Melinda Gates
  • Artemesin based prophylactics
  • Improved education
  • Bednets and control meaures
  • DDT spraying
slide48

Malaria Model

prevalence and ERA rainfall

University of Liverpool