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Digging into Construction Data. NABE Real Estate/Construction Roundtable webinar, April 8, 2010 Ken Simonson, Chief Economist AGC of America simonsonk@agc.org. 2. Economic impact of nonresidential construction. Jobs: 28,500 per $1 billion 1/3 direct, onsite construction

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digging into construction data

Digging into Construction Data

NABE Real Estate/Construction Roundtable

webinar, April 8, 2010

Ken Simonson, Chief Economist

AGC of America

simonsonk@agc.org

economic impact of nonresidential construction

2

Economic impact of nonresidential construction
  • Jobs: 28,500per $1 billion
    • 1/3 direct, onsite construction
    • 1/6 indirect (quarries, mfg., services)
    • 1/2 “induced” by spending from higher earnings of construction, indirect workers and owners
  • GDP: $3.4 billion
  • Personal Earnings: $1.1 billion

Source: Prof. Stephen Fuller, George Mason University

construction spending 2000 2009
Construction Spending, 2000-2009

GDP and Construction Spending

(SAAR Annual Level, $ in billions)

Construction as a % of GDP

GDP

Construction

Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis

construction spending by segment 1 12 month change seasonally adjusted annual rate saar

4

Construction spending by segment, 1- & 12-month changeSeasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)

nTotal Construction

($846b, -1.3%, -13%)

Private Nonresidential

($303b, -0.4%, -24%)

Public

($293b, -1.7%, -5%)

Private Residential

($251b, -2.1%, -3.8%)

Source: Census Bureau

housing outlook

6

Housing outlook
  • SF: starts, permits should rise throughout ‘10
  • MF: No improvement likely until ‘11

- Rental demand hurt by job losses among would-be renters and by first-time homebuyer credit

- Supply swelled by owners and banks who are trying to rent out houses and condos

- Banks remain unwilling to lend to developers

Source: Author

slide9

9

Construction spending: public works (billion $, SAAR) 2008, 2009,2010

slide10

10

Construction spending: institutional (private + state/local)2008, 2009,2010

slide11

11

Construction spending: developer-financed (billion $, SAAR) 2008, 2009,2010

predictors of construction demand
Predictors of construction demand

12

Architecture & engineering services empl.

Source: American Institute of Architects, BLS

summary for 2010

13

Summary for 2010
  • Nonres spending: 0 to -5% (more stimulus put in place, maybe gains in retail, higher ed, hospitals)
  • Res: +5 to +10% (SF up, MF down all year)
  • Total construction spending: -4% to +2%
  • Materials costs: 0% to +8%
  • Labor costs: +3% or less

Source: Author

agc economic resources email simonsonk@agc org

14

AGC economic resources (email simonsonk@agc.org)
  • The Data DIGest: weekly one-page email (sign up: www.agc.org/datadigest)
  • PPI tables: emailed monthly
  • State and metro data
  • Stimulus info: www.agc.org/stimulus
  • Webinars (May 4 w/ AIA, Reed)
  • Feedback on stimulus, credit, costs
nabe setting the pace in business economics

15

NABE - Setting the pace in business economics
  • Professional Development Seminar: DC, 4/12-14
    • Housing and construction session
  • Annual meeting: Denver, 10/9-12
  • Real Estate/Construction Roundtable
    • Webinars, annual & spring meeting programs
  • Statistics Committee

…much more at www.nabe.com

Source: Prof. Stephen Fuller, George Mason University