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SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART

SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART. Prof. Em. Wim Moesen Centrum voor Economische Studiën Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Seniorenuniversiteit UHasselt 21 september 2009. INHOUD. SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN ECONOMISCHE WELVAART Transmissiemechanisme METEN EN VALIDEREN Empirische bevindingen

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SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART

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  1. SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART Prof. Em. Wim Moesen Centrum voor Economische Studiën Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Seniorenuniversiteit UHasselt 21 september 2009

  2. INHOUD • SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN ECONOMISCHE WELVAART • Transmissiemechanisme • METEN EN VALIDEREN • Empirische bevindingen • STERKTEN- ZWAKTENANALYSE • Beleidsconclusies

  3. SOCIAAL KAPITAAL FORMELE INSTELLINGEN (wetten, regels, organisaties…) INFORMELE INSTELLINGEN (normen, conventies, taboes…) CULTURELE WAARDEN

  4. WELVAART ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE VERTROUWEN SOCIAAL KAPITAAL

  5. TRANSMISSIEMECHANISME? • Vermindert transactiekosten • Verhoogt productiviteit Macro-economische performanties Vertrouwen

  6. Francis FUKAYAMA (1995) “Trust: the social virtues and economic prosperity” BENADERING VAN DE TRANSACTIEKOSTEN • Douglas NORTH (1993) • Oliver WILLIAMSON (1975, 1979, 1985)

  7. TRUST AND RETURNED WALLETS

  8. MAATSCHAPPELIJK KAPITAAL EN VERTROUWEN Maatschappelijk kapitaal = cultuur van de maatschappij Met - formele beperkingen grondwet, wetten,… - informele beperkingen morele waarden, attitudes,… Beïnvloedt vertrouwen in de maatschappij Vertrouwen in de publieke sector Beïnvloedt economische performantie

  9. METEN EN VALIDEREN • DATA ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE • DATA CULTURELE WAARDEN • BEVINDINGEN

  10. DE CONSTRUCTIE VAN EEN COMPOSIET-INDEX VOOR DE METING VAN PERFORMANTIE • SCOPE: WELKE INDICATOREN? • NORMALISERING: HOE HERSCHALEN? • AGGREGATIE: WELKE WEGING?

  11. SYNTHETISCHE INDICATOR VAN MACRO-ECONOMSICHE PERFORMANTIE TINBERGEN REELE GROEI LOPENDE REKENING BETALINGSBALANS WERKLOOSHEID INFLATIE

  12. VERTROUWEN IN PUBLIEKE SECTOR & ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE Meetinstrumenten: economische performantie Groei BBP Inflatie 4 factoren Wekloosheidsgraad Saldo op lopende rekening Simep Limep 2 maatstaven Ongewogen Gewogen Met saldo Lopende rekening Simep 4 / Limep 4 2 families zonder saldo Lopende rekening Simep 3 / Limep 3

  13. DATA CULTURELE WAARDEN • Twee indicatoren: • Vertrouwen in publieke sector: synthetische maatstaf • Favoritisme • Onafhankelijkheid rechterlijke macht • 5 ingrediënten Corruptie • Regeringsverbintenissen • Vertrouwen in eerlijkheid van politici • (2) Werkethiek (arbeidsmotivatie, loyauteit,…)

  14. BEVINDINGEN: REGRESSIERESULTATEN

  15. EMPIRICS: GRAPHICAL

  16. CLASSIFICATIE VAN LANDEN

  17. Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 What is competitiveness? The World Competitiveness Report definescompetitiveness as the set of institutions,policies, and factors that determine thelevel of productivity of a country

  18. Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 Problems when constructing aComposite Indicator • Problem of scope • 2. Problem of normalisation • 3. Problem fo weighting

  19. The index is composed of 12 pillars measuringdifferent aspects of an economy’s competitiveness • Basic Requirements • I. Institutions • II. Infrastructure • III. Macroeconomic stability • IV. Health and primary education • Efficiency Enhancers • V. Higher education and training • VI. Goods market efficiency • VII. Labor market efficiency • VIII. Financial market sophistication • IX. Technological readiness • X. Market size • Innovation and sophistication factors • XI. Business sophistication • XII. Innovation • Key for • factor-driven • economies • Key for • efficiency-driven • economies • Key for • innovation-driven • economies

  20. Survey methodology • The hard data indicators used in the GCI arenormalized on a 1- to 7- scale • Official public sources are often insufficient forpainting an accurate picture of a country’s businessoperating environment. • -> Executive opinion survey: Soft Data

  21. Executive Opinion Survey • Survey conducted by Partner Institutes- Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School exclusively for Belgium • Overall, 12.297 business leaders were questioned in a 134 national economies • Average of 90 responses per country- Belgium received 109 responses! • - Random selection based on sector share in national GDP

  22. Belgium’s Competitiveness Rank: 2001-2008Growth Competitiveness Index (Old series) Global Competitiveness Index (New series)

  23. The Global competitiveness index - ranking

  24. Important changes 2008-2009 vs. 2007-2008 • No changes in top 4, Singapore enters top 5 • France, the UK and the Netherlands were already better ranked than Belgium and are characterized by major improvements. Germany stays ahead of Belgium. • Improvements in China whereas India fell to the 50th place

  25. Pillar Rankings higher than our 19th positionWhich pillars pushed us forward?

  26. Pillar Rankings lower than our 19th positionWhich pillars pulled us backward?

  27. Belgium’s 10 best single items

  28. Belgium’s 10 most unfavourable single items

  29. Benchmark of Belgium’s 10 most favourable items

  30. Benchmark of Belgium’s 10 most unfavourable items

  31. The most problematic Factorsfor doing business in Belgium • Restrictive labour regulations (19,2 % of responses) • Tax rates (17,3% of responses) • Inefficient government bureaucracy (12,2% of responses) • Tax regulations (11,1% of responses) • Inadequately educated workforce (9,8% of responses)

  32. VERTROUWEN IN BELGISCHE OVERHEIDSINSTELLINGEN Gezondheidszorg 82,6 Onderwijs 77,9 Sociale zekerheid 69,4 Politie 55,4 Overheidsadministratie 46,1 Parlement 39,1 Justitie 36,4 (Bron: European Values Study, 2000)

  33. VERTROUWEN IN INSTELLINGEN (2002) Onderwijs 79,1% Gemeentelijke administratie 52,5% Vlaamse Administratie 40,4% Gerecht 30,1% (Bron: Instituut voor de Overheid, Werken aan de Overheid)

  34. TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS Eurobarometer 2003

  35. One of the most problematic factors for doing business in Belgium Inefficient government bureaucracy Trust in Belgian institutions

  36. Government effectiveness Data on Government Effectiveness → borrowed from World Bank: Kaufmann et al., ‘Governance Matters’, (edition 2007) - Survey data for 212 countries - Composite indicator

  37. Globalcompetitiveness versus government effectiveness

  38. Government effectiveness and budget size

  39. Global Competitiveness Index versus budget size .

  40. Global Competitiveness Index versus budget size – bivariate econometrics

  41. Global Competitiveness Index versus budget size – clusters of countries .

  42. Government effectiveness versus budget size

  43. Non-parametric approach

  44. Output D FDH best practice frontier H F B G A C xo, yo E Input Non-parametric approach

  45. Non-parametric approach Budget size corrected for: - Small open economy (Dani Rodrick, 1998) - Small family size

  46. The quality of government The quality of government is related to (correlation coefficient) - The strictness of the budgetary procedures 0.66 (12 EU-countries) - The trust in other people 0.62 (23 OECD-countries) - The trust of foreigners 0.89 (19 EU-countries)

  47. CONTENTS OF HAPPINESS Subjective well-being + personality characteristics + socio-demographic factors Human well-being + health + education Economic welfare + employment + inflation GDP Regrettables

  48. LIFE SATISFACTION (1999-2000)RUUD VEENHOVEN, TILBURG UNIVERSITY CORRELATIONS WITH Control of corruption .85 Rule of law .85 Government effectiveness (World Bank) .83 Political voice and accountability .78 Membership voluntary organisations .63 Health expenditures per capita .60 Trust in official institutions .55 Trust in people .54

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