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Climate change science in a nutshell

Climate change science in a nutshell. Scott Power Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology. University of Newcastle Symposium October 2007. Key Questions. How did climate vary in the past? What caused the observed changes?

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Climate change science in a nutshell

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  1. Climate change science in a nutshell Scott Power Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology University of Newcastle Symposium October 2007

  2. Key Questions • How did climate vary in the past? • What caused the observed changes? • What will happen to Australia’s climate in the future? Kk k

  3. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) • U.N.– sponsored • Foremost authority on science of climate change • Recently completed a comprehensive assessment of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change • 1. Science • 2. Impacts, adaptation, vulnerability • 3. Reducing emissions Kk k

  4. CSIRO-Bureau of Meteorology (2007) Approximately 50 scientists, 148 pp., 291 scientific references http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au Scott Power1 and Penny Whetton2 on behalf of 50 colleagues 1 Bureau of Meteorology 2 CSIRO

  5. June July August

  6. Australian climate varies substantially from natural causes alone The El Niño/La Niña cycle drives some of this variability Kk k

  7. “Current CO2 levels (380 ppm) is 27% highest for at least 650,000 years”, T. Stocker

  8. IPCC: • “There is very high confidence that the marked increases in greenhouse gases since 1750 are due primarily to emissions from fossil fuel use, agriculture, and land-use changes”. Kk k

  9. World’s simplest model of global warming Kk k

  10. Need climate models to simulate such complexity

  11. How good are climate models? Kk k Power et al., J. Climate, 2006

  12. Human forcing drives recent rapid warming

  13. Kk k

  14. Chance of exceeding 1-4°C warming 4˚C 1˚C 2˚C 3˚C Kk k CSIRO-BoM (2007)

  15. Projected rainfall change in 2030: A1B Kk k CSIRO-BoM (2007)

  16. Kk k CSIRO-BoM (2007) Data: National Climate Centre, WA Water Corp

  17. Recent times Murray Darling Basin • driest Sept on record, warmest Jan-Sept on record Dry spell in Melbourne • 10 years below 1961-1990 average rainfall in a row. Kk k

  18. Power and Smith, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2007

  19. Issues for Australians • More confident than ever before that humans have driven much of the observed warming • Further warming appears inevitable • The El Niño-La Niña cycle remains a major driver of climate variability in a warming Australia • Rainfall changes bare worrying parallels with response to elevated greenhouse gas levels • Major cuts to emissions are needed to avoid most dire projections Kk k

  20. Thank you for listeningS.Power@bom.gov.au

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