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July 5-9, 2009, Univ. of Bologna, Italy HARP - A Software Tool for Fast Assessment of Radiation Accident Consequences and their Variability Petr Pecha and Radek Hofman email@example.com
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HARP - A Software Tool for Fast Assessment of Radiation
Accident Consequences and their Variability
Petr Pecha and Radek Hofman
Institute of Information Theory and Automation v.v.i., Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 08 Prague, Pod vodarenskou vezi 4, Czech Republic
Integration of assimilation subsystem (,) for improvement
of model predictions using observations incoming from terrain
deterministic and probabilistic
Interactive regime offers wide range of input data and model parameters alternative options thus enabling fast examination of their variability and uncertainty on random fluctuations of resulting outputs.
INTERACTIVE INPUT SUBSYSTEMS:
1) Atm. dispersion model and release scenario
2) Ingestion parameters definitions
3) LHS – (Latin Hypercube Sampling) for simulation of
uncertainty propagationthrough the model
Example of the HARP applications – „red eye“due to local atmospheric precipitation
Spatial distribution of 137Cs activity deposition on terrain [Bq /m2]. Deterministic „best estimate" (left) is compared with probabilistic calculation of sample mean (right - 5000 samples).
The „red eye“ in deposited activity is caused by local atmospheric precipitation, which occurred between hours 5 to 6 after the release start (random rain intensity has uniform distribution U[0; 6mm / hour] ). Signifiance of probabilistic assessment approach is evident. It enables generate more informative probabilistic answers on assessment questions.
Example of the HARP applications – significance of discrimination between
local or global character of uncertainty effect
Cross section through the model error covariance matrix for the „red eye“
scenario with local rain
dark: strong positive
white: negative covariance
(without detail scale)
Covariances of the fixed point in the
centre of rain zone with all other nodes
( only one random input parameter
assumed → rain intensity)
Example of the HARP applications - 137Cs deposition on terrain : result of long-term
release with duration 3 month (real weather
statistics was used)
(measurements locations in black squares selected artifically)
Example of the HARP applications– arrangement for TWIN experiment for data
assimilation with real receptors of the Czech Early Warning system (red squares)