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Hazardous Cell Tracking. Robert Boldi 29 September 2008 NSSTC/UAH. What is Hazardous Cell Tracking?. Hazardous Severe Lightning, Winds, Hail Tornadoes Cell Compact region embedded within a larger-scale convective system Tracking Compute time-rate-of-change of Cell’s attributes. .

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hazardous cell tracking

Hazardous Cell Tracking

Robert Boldi

29 September 2008

NSSTC/UAH

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

what is hazardous cell tracking
What is Hazardous Cell Tracking?
  • Hazardous
    • Severe Lightning, Winds, Hail
    • Tornadoes
  • Cell
    • Compact region embedded within a larger-scale convective system
  • Tracking
    • Compute time-rate-of-change of Cell’s attributes.

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

methodology
Methodology
  • Construct an “Interest Image”, each pixel of which represents the likelihood that a hazardous cell is present [ 0 .. 1 ]
  • Track this image using Multi-Scale XCT
  • Locate “Cells” by thresholding this image
  • Construct Lagrangian history of properties of the cells
  • Predict future location of cells ( and properties )

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

constructing interest image
Constructing “Interest” Image
  • Functional Template Correlation
    • A template (small image), convolved against a larger input image, producing an “interest image”, each pixel of which is the probability that the feature represented by the template is present at the given pixel.
    • Templates map onto simple features ( lines, circular cells, low variance regions, etc.
  • Fuzzy Logic
    • Groups of “Images” are combined to produce meteorologically-understandable phenomena, e.g. Stratiform, Convective, Decaying, Growing …
    • These phenomena are combined to produce the final “Interest Image”

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

cell detection and tracking
Cell Detection and Tracking

Lightning

Cell

Identification

Cell-Scale

Motions

Interest

Image

Generator

Multi-Scale

XCT

Tracker

Satellite

Data

Storm-Scale

Motions

FTC  WxTypes

Fuzzy LogicFusion

Radar

Data

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

cell detection and tracking1
Cell Detection and Tracking

Lightning Events

Interest Image

2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z

Radar Data

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

cell detection
Cell Detection

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

multi scale tracking
Multi-Scale Tracking

Envelope Motion

Interest Image

2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z

Cell Motion

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

multi scale tracking1
Multi-Scale Tracking

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

cell identification thresholding interest image
Cell Identification = Thresholding Interest Image

Interest Image

2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z

Cell ID’s

2008_04_08 @ 01:48Z

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

cell id s not persistent
Cell ID’s NOT persistent

( movie )

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

lagrangian history re construction
Lagrangian History Re-Construction

…..

…..

T(-2 dt)

T(- dt)

Cell 1

History

T(0)

Multi-Scale

Vectors

Cell 2

History

Current

Cell Map

T(0)

Past Data

Advector

Cell Integrator

Cell 3

History

…..

…..

:

T(-2 dt)

T(- dt)

T(0)

  • Input Fields
  • Lightning
  • Radar
  • Satellite

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

advector forward advection of inputs to current time
Advector: Forward Advection of Inputs to Current Time

In the absence of convergence, divergence, growth or decay, the alignment would be perfect.

=

Past Time Advected

to Current Time

Current Time

Past Time

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

cell position prediction
Cell Position Prediction

…..

…..

T(-2 dt)

T(- dt)

Future

Cell Map

T(+dt)

T(0)

Multi-Scale

Vectors

Current

Cell Map

T(0)

Advector

Future

Cell Map

T(+2.dt)

:

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

input field prediction
Input Field Prediction

T(-2 dt)

T(- dt)

Forecast

Input Field

T(+dt)

T(0)

Multi-Scale

Vectors

Advector

Forecast

Input Field

T(+2.dt)

Current

Input Field

T(0)

:

Trends,

WxType

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

summary
Summary
  • Tracker running
  • Creating Histories for Lightning Jump ALG
  • Creating Predicted Cell Positions
  • Platform for Lightning Prediction

Work In Progress

  • Obtaining proxy ABI data for :
    • WxType
    • Storm intensity image

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH

slide21
THE END

R. Boldi NSSTC/UAH