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SEEM Phase II Calibration for Manufactured Homes. Regional Technical Forum August 12, 2014. Phase II general approach. Phase I gave us total heating energy estimates for homes with clear VBDD signatures. RTF measure savings needs average electric energy savings for all program homes.

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Seem phase ii calibration for manufactured homes

SEEM Phase II Calibration for Manufactured Homes

Regional Technical Forum

August 12, 2014


Phase ii general approach
Phase II general approach

  • Phase I gave us total heating energy estimates for homes with clear VBDD signatures.

  • RTF measure savings needs average electric energy savings for all program homes.

  • Phase II uses regression to find out how the presence of non-electric fuels affects electric heating energy.

  • Regression focuses on TMY-normalized (VBDD) estimates derived from electric billing data.


Phase ii data filters part 1
Phase II data filters, part 1

Sites excluded from Phase-II regression for a few reasons…

Note: We don’t remove sites with non-electric heating fuels since our goal is to estimate those features’ effects.


Phase ii data filters part 2
Phase II data filters, part 2

By the numbers….


Phase ii regression model
Phase II regression model

All else equal, VBDD-electric in homes with feature differ from that of homes without feature by a factor of .

Hence, feature associated with adjustment to VBDD kWh.


What about poor vbdd fits
What about poor VBDD fits?

Non-electric fuels account for 23.7% - 5.7% = 18% gap between good-VBDD and poor-VBDD sites.

That’s more than the 14% figure we got from annualized energy.

Propose to accept 18% figure and make no additional VBDD adjustment. (So non-electric fuels account for differences between good-VBDD and bad-VBDD sites, and they differ by 18%).


Proposed phase ii calibration
Proposed Phase II Calibration


Phase ii calculation example
Phase II Calculation Example

0.0% of Phase I kWh

7.9% of Phase I kWh

92.1% of Phase I kWh


Decision
Decision

I, ________, move that the RTF adopt the phase II calibration for manufactured homes as described above and summarized below.