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Using this powerpoint. I have narrated many of the slides in the notes section of this powerpoint. Please feel free to use this information for educational purposes. Useful websites: www.weatheroutreach.org

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using this powerpoint
Using this powerpoint
  • I have narrated many of the slides in the notes section of this powerpoint. Please feel free to use this information for educational purposes.
  • Useful websites:
  • www.weatheroutreach.org
  • https://www.meted.ucar.edu/loginForm.php?urlPath=broadcastmet/climate&go_back_to=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.meted.ucar.edu%252Fbroadcastmet%252Fclimate%252Fcontent%252Fsec06_01b.htm#
slide3

Motivation: Why talk about this?

  • This issue is not going away.
  • Understanding the science helps us realize what role we play in the solutions to the issue.
slide4

Understanding your Audience

Proportion of the U.S. Adult Population in 2009 …

What do Adult Americans Think?

Random sample size n=2,129 people

For full report go to: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/05/6americas.html

slide5

Understanding your Audience

What do Climate Scientists Think?

Are humans responsible for observed warming?

what factors have the effect of changing the earth s climate
What factors have the effect of changing the Earth’s climate?
  • Land
  • Ocean
  • Sun-Earth
  • Atmosphere
slide9

The Milankovitch Cycle

Precession

26,000 years

Eccentricity

100,000-413,000 years

Tilt

41,000 years

The Milankovitch cycle, which has caused ice ages and warm periods in the past, is not causing the current changes we observe.

the sun earth relationship

What can change Earth’s Climate?

The Sun-Earth relationship

1750-1950: .2°F of warming occurred due to 1% increase in solar output during this period

1950-1970: slightly less output from the sun, led to slight cooling

slide11

Monthly solar data

Average solar data

Energy coming from the Sun (1979-2007)

(measured at the top of the Earth’s Atmosphere)

Amount of sunlight (Watts/meter2)

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Source: NOAA

  • Data Show:
  • Solar output approximately steady
  • Sunlight is not causing the current climate change
greenhouse gases main factors

What can change climate?

Greenhouse gases main factors
  • Amount and rate of emissions released
  • Effectiveness of heat trapping
  • Residence time in the atmosphere
human caused anthropogenic greenhouse gases

What can change climate?

Human caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases

Why focus on CO2?

Amount of CO2 in the atmosphere- highest in 800,000 years

Historical rate:

30 ppm/1000 years

Current Rate: 30 ppm/last 17 years

slide16

What data do climate scientists use?

ground

observations

satellite

observations

balloon

data

sea surface

temps

continental

ice sheet

retreat

polar ice cap

retreat

mtn. glacier

retreat

permafrost

melt

ice cores

coral reef

cores

boreholes

Warming

cave data

tree rings

ocean

sediment

cores

biological

data

How do we know?

Rob Gillies slide modified, puzzle images from COMET

slide19

2008

1988

2000

Looking at the graph, what can you conclude about 2008 temperatures?

  • 2008 was the coolest year since 2000
  • 2008 was warmer than any year before 1988
  • Global warming has ended, global cooling is occurring
  • Temperatures in 2008 are consistent with global warming
  • Two years of temperature data are enough to make statements about global warming
slide20
Looking at the graph, what can you conclude about 2008 temperatures?
  • 2008 was the coolest year since 2000
  • 2008 was warmer than any year before 1988
  • Global warming has ended, global cooling is occurring
  • Temperatures in 2008 are consistent with global warming
  • Two years of temperature data are enough to make statements about global warming
global average temperature changes in 2008
Global average temperature changes in 2008
  • Temperatures around the globe are not uniform
  • One area does not give us the whole picture
  • One time does not give us the whole picture

Temperature differences

slide24

Temperature Difference (°C)

compared to the year 2000

Image Courtesy: Dr. David Chapman

why should we care
Why should we care?
  • Only a few degrees means:
    • National Security Threatened
    • Health Impacts
    • Negative Effects on Economics
    • Hotter Summers/Warmer Winters
    • Drought and Floods
    • Sea-Level Rise
    • Extreme Weather
    • Ocean Ecosystems Stressed
    • Regional Impacts
only a few degrees
Only a few degrees?

Why should we care?

125,000 years ago: 1°F warmer, sea levels were 20ft higher

Last Ice Age: 7-13°F cooler

slide28

Key Impacts as a function of Increasing Global Average Temperature Change

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress

Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction

Significant extinctions around the globe

Ecosystems

Increasing wildfire risk

Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality

Increasing species range shifts

Food

Water

Complex, localized negative impacts on subsistence farmers and fishers

Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes and increase at mid-to high latitudes

Productivity of all cereals decreases at low latitudes and in some other regions productivity decreases

Increased damage from floods and storms

About 30% of global

Coasts

coastal wetlands lost

Millions more people could

experience coastal flooding each year

Health

Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases

Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts

Changed distribution of some disease vectors

Substantial burden on health services

Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Increased damage from floods and storms

Increasing fire risk

Increased coastal flooding

Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions

Energy Security/ Independence

Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999

1.8°F

0°F

3.6°F

5.4°F

7.2°F

9°F

Figure Modified from the IPCC Report SPM.2. Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change, and socio-economic pathway.

slide29

Warming by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 for non-mitigation scenarios (Modified figure: SPM7 IPCC Report 2007)

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress

Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction

Significant extinctions around the globe

Ecosystems

Increasing wildfire risk

Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality

Increasing species range shifts

Food

Water

Complex, localized negative impacts on subsistence farmers and fishers

Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes and increase at mid-to high latitudes

Productivity of all cereals decreases at low latitudes and in some other regions productivity decreases

Increased damage from floods and storms

About 30% of global

Coasts

coastal wetlands lost

Millions more people could

experience coastal flooding each year

Health

Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases

Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts

Changed distribution of some disease vectors

Substantial burden on health services

Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Increased damage from floods and storms

Increasing fire risk

Increased coastal flooding

Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions

Energy Security/ Independence

2×CO2

stabilization

2.5×CO2

3×CO2

Up to 9.72°F

1.8°F

1.8°F

0°F

3.6°F

5.4°F

7.2°F

9°F

your bills
Your bills

Why should we care?

  • Heating and Cooling
    • $$$Hotter summers
    • $ Warmer Winters
  • Water Bills
    • $$$ Drought and Floods
  • Cost of food
    • $$$ Sea Level Rise
    • $$$ Crop failures
our bills
Our Bills

Why should we care?

$$$ Extreme Weather

$$$ National Security

$$$ Tourism

crops and climate
Crops and Climate

Why should we care?

USDA predicts faster growth in grain/oil seed crops, but more prone to failure if precipitation decreases.

crops and climate33
Crops and climate

Why should we care?

Earlier plant growth increases vulnerability to spring cold spells

April 2007 frost cost: $ 2 Billion in agricultural losses

food supply
Food Supply

Why should we care?

climate change and national security

Why should we care?

Climate Change and National Security

“National Security and the Threat of Climate Change” 2007, CAN Corporation

“Global Climate Change: National Security Implications” 2008, U.S. Army War College

“National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030” 2008, Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis

human health heat waves more frequent and intense
Human health-heat wavesmore frequent and intense

Why should we care?

During heat waves death rate increases by 6%

good news in the winter
Good news in the winter

Why should we care?

Warmer winters – less flu

milder temperatures expanded range for many disease carriers
Milder temperatures = expanded range for many disease carriers

Why should we care?

Dengue hemorrhagiic fever first appeared in U.S.: 2005 – tropical borne disease

Experts worry that malaria could reappear

air pollution worsens
Air Pollution Worsens

Why should we care?

Higher humidity and warmer temperatures leads to more ozone and particulate matter forming and lasting longer

air pollution worsens40
Air Pollution Worsens

Why should we care?

1,000 more air-pollution-related deaths per year for every 1.8°F increase.

western us climate change
Western US Climate Change
  • Most of the western US is warming faster than the global average
  • Other climate trends across most of the Western US in the past 50 years include
    • Longer frost-free growing season
    • Earlier and warmer spring
    • Earlier flower blooms and leaf out for several plant species
    • Earlier spring snowmelt and runoff
    • Greater fraction of spring precipitation falling as rain instead of snow
utah climate change
Utah Climate Change
  • Last decade was 2°F

warmer than the 100

year average

  • Snow surveys show no

clear long-term (80 year) trend in mountain snowpack

  • There is no clear linkage between recent global warming and precipitation within the basin of the Great Salt Lake
projected temperature change
Projected Temperature Change
  • Greaterwarming
    • In the Arctic
    • Over land than ocean
    • In winter than summer
  • It is likely that Utah will warm more than the global average
  • Projected warming for Utah (2.5xCO2 scenario) is 8°F by 2100
    • Comparable to the present difference in annual mean temperature between Park City (44°F) and Salt Lake City (52°F)
projected precipitation changes
Projected Precipitation Changes
  • Less confidence in precipitation projections
  • Mid and high latitudes wetter
  • Most of subtropics drier
  • Utah in the transition zone
utah snowpack and runoff
Utah Snowpack and Runoff

Decline in Utah’s mountain snowpack and associated changes to spring runoff

  • Expected trends
    • Reduced natural snowpack and snowfall for the winter recreation industry in the early and late winter
    • Earlier and less intense spring runoff for reservoir recharge
    • Increased demand for agricultural and residential irrigation
    • Warming of lakes and rivers with impacts such as increased algal abundance and upstream shifts of fish habitat
utah water supplies and drought
Utah Water Supplies and Drought
  • It is more likely than not that water supplies in Utah and the Colorado River Basin will decline during the 21st century
    • More definitive projections not possible at the present time
  • The threat of severe and prolonged drought far worse than observed in the 20th century is real and ongoing
    • Megadroughts have occurred in the past
utah agriculture
Utah Agriculture
  • Based solely on climate change, per-acre crop yields in Utah will likely increase on irrigated fields provided
    • Water remains available for irrigation
    • Temperatures do not increase beyond crop tolerance levels

http://www.uacd.org/districts/north_cache/programs/programs.htm

  • Pasture yields and livestock forage will likely decline on non-irrigated fields
other utah impacts
Other Utah Impacts
  • Great Salt Lake: Declines in mountain snowpack will likely lead to lower average lake levels and increased average salinity unless average winter precipitation increases dramatically
  • Human Health: Increased ground-level ozone concentrations and associated cardio-respiratory disease if non-climatic factors (e.g., emissions) do not change
  • Wildfire: In isolation, expected climate change is likely to contribute to drier conditions and increased wildfire intensity
  • http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml?source=search_story
other global climate trends
Other Global Climate Trends
  • Mean sea level rose 7 inches in the 20th century
  • Shrinkage of mountain glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet responsible for 35-40% of the rise since 1993
  • Little or no long term trend in the average number of tropical cyclones per year
  • Increasing financial losses from hurricanes due to the ever-growing concentration of population and development in coastal regions