Using this powerpoint

2. Using this powerpoint • I have narrated many of the slides in the notes section of this powerpoint. Please feel free to use this information for educational purposes. • Useful websites: • www.weatheroutreach.org • https://www.meted.ucar.edu/loginForm.php?urlPath=broadcastmet/climate&go_back_to=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.meted.ucar.edu%252Fbroadcastmet%252Fclimate%252Fcontent%252Fsec06_01b.htm#

3. Motivation: Why talk about this? • This issue is not going away. • Understanding the science helps us realize what role we play in the solutions to the issue.

4. Understanding your Audience Proportion of the U.S. Adult Population in 2009 … What do Adult Americans Think? Random sample size n=2,129 people For full report go to: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/05/6americas.html

5. Understanding your Audience What do Climate Scientists Think? Are humans responsible for observed warming?

7. What factors have the effect of changing the Earth’s climate? • Land • Ocean • Sun-Earth • Atmosphere

8. What can change climate? Changes in Land and Ocean Circulation

9. The Milankovitch Cycle Precession 26,000 years Eccentricity 100,000-413,000 years Tilt 41,000 years The Milankovitch cycle, which has caused ice ages and warm periods in the past, is not causing the current changes we observe.

10. What can change Earth’s Climate? The Sun-Earth relationship 1750-1950: .2°F of warming occurred due to 1% increase in solar output during this period 1950-1970: slightly less output from the sun, led to slight cooling

11. Monthly solar data Average solar data Energy coming from the Sun (1979-2007) (measured at the top of the Earth’s Atmosphere) Amount of sunlight (Watts/meter2) 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: NOAA • Data Show: • Solar output approximately steady • Sunlight is not causing the current climate change

12. What can change Earth’s Climate?

13. What can change Earth’s Climate? Greenhouse Gases

14. What can change climate? Greenhouse gases main factors • Amount and rate of emissions released • Effectiveness of heat trapping • Residence time in the atmosphere

15. What can change climate? Human caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gases Why focus on CO2? Amount of CO2 in the atmosphere- highest in 800,000 years Historical rate: 30 ppm/1000 years Current Rate: 30 ppm/last 17 years

16. What data do climate scientists use? ground observations satellite observations balloon data sea surface temps continental ice sheet retreat polar ice cap retreat mtn. glacier retreat permafrost melt ice cores coral reef cores boreholes Warming cave data tree rings ocean sediment cores biological data How do we know? Rob Gillies slide modified, puzzle images from COMET

18. How do we know? The data …

19. 2008 1988 2000 Looking at the graph, what can you conclude about 2008 temperatures? • 2008 was the coolest year since 2000 • 2008 was warmer than any year before 1988 • Global warming has ended, global cooling is occurring • Temperatures in 2008 are consistent with global warming • Two years of temperature data are enough to make statements about global warming

20. Looking at the graph, what can you conclude about 2008 temperatures? • 2008 was the coolest year since 2000 • 2008 was warmer than any year before 1988 • Global warming has ended, global cooling is occurring • Temperatures in 2008 are consistent with global warming • Two years of temperature data are enough to make statements about global warming

21. Global average temperature changes in 2008 • Temperatures around the globe are not uniform • One area does not give us the whole picture • One time does not give us the whole picture Temperature differences

24. Temperature Difference (°C) compared to the year 2000 Image Courtesy: Dr. David Chapman

25. Why should we care? • Only a few degrees means: • National Security Threatened • Health Impacts • Negative Effects on Economics • Hotter Summers/Warmer Winters • Drought and Floods • Sea-Level Rise • Extreme Weather • Ocean Ecosystems Stressed • Regional Impacts

27. Only a few degrees? Why should we care? 125,000 years ago: 1°F warmer, sea levels were 20ft higher Last Ice Age: 7-13°F cooler

28. Key Impacts as a function of Increasing Global Average Temperature Change Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions around the globe Ecosystems Increasing wildfire risk Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality Increasing species range shifts Food Water Complex, localized negative impacts on subsistence farmers and fishers Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes and increase at mid-to high latitudes Productivity of all cereals decreases at low latitudes and in some other regions productivity decreases Increased damage from floods and storms About 30% of global Coasts coastal wetlands lost Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year Health Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health services Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Increased damage from floods and storms Increasing fire risk Increased coastal flooding Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions Energy Security/ Independence Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 1.8°F 0°F 3.6°F 5.4°F 7.2°F 9°F Figure Modified from the IPCC Report SPM.2. Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change, and socio-economic pathway.

29. Warming by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 for non-mitigation scenarios (Modified figure: SPM7 IPCC Report 2007) Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions around the globe Ecosystems Increasing wildfire risk Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality Increasing species range shifts Food Water Complex, localized negative impacts on subsistence farmers and fishers Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes and increase at mid-to high latitudes Productivity of all cereals decreases at low latitudes and in some other regions productivity decreases Increased damage from floods and storms About 30% of global Coasts coastal wetlands lost Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year Health Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health services Decreased water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Increased damage from floods and storms Increasing fire risk Increased coastal flooding Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Significant extinctions Energy Security/ Independence 2×CO2 stabilization 2.5×CO2 3×CO2 Up to 9.72°F 1.8°F 1.8°F 0°F 3.6°F 5.4°F 7.2°F 9°F

30. Your bills Why should we care? • Heating and Cooling • $$$Hotter summers • $ Warmer Winters • Water Bills • $$$ Drought and Floods • Cost of food • $$$ Sea Level Rise • $$$ Crop failures

31. Our Bills Why should we care? $$$ Extreme Weather $$$ National Security $$$ Tourism

32. Crops and Climate Why should we care? USDA predicts faster growth in grain/oil seed crops, but more prone to failure if precipitation decreases.

33. Crops and climate Why should we care? Earlier plant growth increases vulnerability to spring cold spells April 2007 frost cost: $ 2 Billion in agricultural losses

34. Food Supply Why should we care?

35. Why should we care? Climate Change and National Security “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change” 2007, CAN Corporation “Global Climate Change: National Security Implications” 2008, U.S. Army War College “National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030” 2008, Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis

36. Human health-heat wavesmore frequent and intense Why should we care? During heat waves death rate increases by 6%

37. Good news in the winter Why should we care? Warmer winters – less flu

38. Milder temperatures = expanded range for many disease carriers Why should we care? Dengue hemorrhagiic fever first appeared in U.S.: 2005 – tropical borne disease Experts worry that malaria could reappear

39. Air Pollution Worsens Why should we care? Higher humidity and warmer temperatures leads to more ozone and particulate matter forming and lasting longer

40. Air Pollution Worsens Why should we care? 1,000 more air-pollution-related deaths per year for every 1.8°F increase.

41. Western US Climate Change • Most of the western US is warming faster than the global average • Other climate trends across most of the Western US in the past 50 years include • Longer frost-free growing season • Earlier and warmer spring • Earlier flower blooms and leaf out for several plant species • Earlier spring snowmelt and runoff • Greater fraction of spring precipitation falling as rain instead of snow

42. Utah Climate Change • Last decade was 2°F warmer than the 100 year average • Snow surveys show no clear long-term (80 year) trend in mountain snowpack • There is no clear linkage between recent global warming and precipitation within the basin of the Great Salt Lake

43. Projected Temperature Change • Greaterwarming • In the Arctic • Over land than ocean • In winter than summer • It is likely that Utah will warm more than the global average • Projected warming for Utah (2.5xCO2 scenario) is 8°F by 2100 • Comparable to the present difference in annual mean temperature between Park City (44°F) and Salt Lake City (52°F)

44. Projected Precipitation Changes • Less confidence in precipitation projections • Mid and high latitudes wetter • Most of subtropics drier • Utah in the transition zone

45. Utah Snowpack and Runoff Decline in Utah’s mountain snowpack and associated changes to spring runoff • Expected trends • Reduced natural snowpack and snowfall for the winter recreation industry in the early and late winter • Earlier and less intense spring runoff for reservoir recharge • Increased demand for agricultural and residential irrigation • Warming of lakes and rivers with impacts such as increased algal abundance and upstream shifts of fish habitat

46. Utah Water Supplies and Drought • It is more likely than not that water supplies in Utah and the Colorado River Basin will decline during the 21st century • More definitive projections not possible at the present time • The threat of severe and prolonged drought far worse than observed in the 20th century is real and ongoing • Megadroughts have occurred in the past

47. Utah Agriculture • Based solely on climate change, per-acre crop yields in Utah will likely increase on irrigated fields provided • Water remains available for irrigation • Temperatures do not increase beyond crop tolerance levels http://www.uacd.org/districts/north_cache/programs/programs.htm • Pasture yields and livestock forage will likely decline on non-irrigated fields

48. Other Utah Impacts • Great Salt Lake: Declines in mountain snowpack will likely lead to lower average lake levels and increased average salinity unless average winter precipitation increases dramatically • Human Health: Increased ground-level ozone concentrations and associated cardio-respiratory disease if non-climatic factors (e.g., emissions) do not change • Wildfire: In isolation, expected climate change is likely to contribute to drier conditions and increased wildfire intensity • http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/18/60minutes/main3380176.shtml?source=search_story

49. Other Global Climate Trends • Mean sea level rose 7 inches in the 20th century • Shrinkage of mountain glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet responsible for 35-40% of the rise since 1993 • Little or no long term trend in the average number of tropical cyclones per year • Increasing financial losses from hurricanes due to the ever-growing concentration of population and development in coastal regions