Analysis of Demographic and Social Data

1. Analysis of Demographic and Social Data PAf 203

2. Introduction • Discussion of demographic and social indicators commonly referred to in identifying policy problems • Divided into four parts • Sources of demographic data • Demographic indicators-population size, distribution, growth, age and sex composition, fertility, mortality, migration, population projection • Social indicators (health, education and nutrition) and labor and employment • Human development index

3. Objectives • At the end of the lecture, the students should be able to: • Discuss the different types of demographic and social data in policy analysis • Understand and explain how demographic, social data and human development index are generated and computed; and • Analyze and interpret demographic and social data

4. Issue: Population data should be analyzed in relation with other important development issues,e.g., education, employment, health and economic, otherwise it will be MEANINGLESS and DOES NOT TELL US MUCH

5. Demography • Study of the characteristics of human populations, such as size, growth, density, and distribution. • Demographic analysis provides insights into the links between these characteristics and the cultural, economic, geographic, and other social attributes present in a given area

6. Sources of Data CIVIL REGISTRATION2. CENSUS3. SURVEY

7. Civil Registration Purpose • Primarily administrative • To collect data on the vital events happening in a population (generally concerned with live births, deaths, and marriages) • Help understand demographic characteristics of different populations at different points in time

8. Civil Registration Essential characteristics • Universality • Continuity Definitions and content • Live birth • Death • Marriage

10. Censuses • The total process of collecting, compiling, analyzing, and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic, and social data pertaining to all persons in a country or in a well-delineated part of a country at a specified time

11. Surveys • Surveys Purpose • Obtain information from a sample representative of some population • Content Varies widely • e.g., fertility, child mortality, migration

12. Population size What are the reasons for its growth?

14. Source: Jasmine Coleman, The Guardian, Monday 31 October 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/31/seven-billionth-baby-born-philippines

15. The Long Road to 7B is Paved with Potatoes?

16. Population Enumerated in Various Censuses: Philippines Source: National Statistics Office

17. Population distribution • By continent • By country • In the case of the Philippines • Rural-urban • Region • Province • Municipality • Barangay

18. Population distribution • Population distribution refers to the patterns of settlement and dispersal of population within a country or other area.

19. World Population distribution

20. Total Population Distribution of Top 10 Regions by Sex: Philippines, 2000 • Questions: • Which among the regions have more women than men? What could be the explanation? • How the percentages were computed?, e.g., Central Luzon: 10.50%? • What is the use of knowing population size and population distribution? Source: NSO, 2000 Census of Population and Housing

21. Total Population Distribution of Top 10 Regions by Sex: Philippines, 2000 Question: How is 10.50% for Central Luzoncomputed? Source: NSO, 2000 Census of Population and Housing

22. Population Density • Population Density = the number of persons per square kilometer

23. Population density • usually expressed as the number of people per unit of land area. Source: Population Reference Bureau

24. Population, population distribution and population density, Phils.: 1970-2000 Source: National Statistics Office: various Years

25. Age and Sex Composition of the Population

26. Population pyramid

27. Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Age 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Male Female Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

28. Population Pyramids

29. Population Pyramid, Philippines Philippines 2000 Male Female Female Male

31. Sources of Population Growth • Fertility: Birth rate • Mortality : Death rate • Migration: net migration rate

32. Fertility • Refers to the number of births that occur to an individual or in a population • Most commonly used measures • Crude birth rate • Age specific birth rate • Total fertility rate • Replacement level of fertility

33. Fertility Measures • Crude birth rate • The number of births divided by the mid-year population • Total Fertility Rate • The number of births a woman, on average, could have if she follows the current curve

34. Fertility: Crude Birth Rate (CBR) CBR - indicates the number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year.*

35. Fertility: Replacement Level of Fertility • Replacement- Level Fertility • is the level of fertility at which women in the same cohort have exactly enough daughters (on average) to replace” themselves in the population. • An Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) of 1.00 is equal to replacement level.

36. Mortality Rate • Crude death rate • Number of deaths divided by the number of the population. • Infant Mortality rate • Number of infant deaths divided by the number of births • Life Expectancy • The average number of years a person is expected to live

37. Mortality: Crude Death Rate (CDR) • Death Rate The death rate (also called the crude death rate) is the number of deaths per 1,000 population in a given year.

38. Mortality: Infant mortality rate (IMR)

40. Migration Migration • movement from one place of abode to another (especially from one region or country to another) usually with the intention to settle. • Internal Migration • In-migration • Out-migration • External Migration • Emigration • Immigration

41. Migration: Immigration Rate

42. Migration: Emigration Rate

43. Migration: Net Migration Rate What is the effect of immigration on the sending and receiving countries?

45. Population Change

46. Population growth • Refers to the number of persons added to or subtracted from a population in a give year due to natural increase and net migration expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period • Arithmetic • Exponential • Geometric

47. Population Growth Rate • Arithmetic: population increases in equal number over time. • Geometric: population increases in compounded manner within a definite period of time • Exponential: population increases in compounded manner within an infinitesimal period of time

48. Geometric = determined by the compound interest formula. It computes rates based on fixed intervals of time. n (1) Pt2 = Pt1 (1+r) and (2) Pt2 = population at second date Pt1 = population for a base date r = rate of change n = years between base date and second date

49. Geometric Growth Rate Pt1 = 60.7 Pt2 = 68.6 where: Pt1= Population in Time 1 Pt2 = Population in Time 2 n= number of years between Time 1 and Time 2 • Example: • log (1+r) = log (Pt2/Pt1) n = log (68.6/60.7) 5 = log (68.6/60.7) 5 1+r = antilog 0.010627 = 1.0247 r = 1.0247-1 r = 2.47%

50. Rate of Population Change • Exponential rate – based on continuous compounding (1) Pt2 = Pt1ern and (2) Pt2 = population at second date Pt1 = population for a base date e = a constant (2.71828) r = rate of change n = years between base date and second date