E N E RGY POL I C Y A N D M A R K E T M O D E L L I N G

1. Utility Tout Power broker T Purchase coalition d q Q Market place Leader Coalition coordinator Price Consumption Optimizing consumers Follower Systems Analysis Laboratory Updated 4.10.2004 E N E RGY POL I C Y A N D M A R K E T M O D E L L I N G multi-objective heating optimization investment dynamics and market equilibrium • consumers’ reactions to price dynamics • multicriteria optimization real options and game theory investment are partially or completely irreversible uncertainties in fuel and resource values the timing of the investment contains leeway strict restrictions for licenses to invest strategic interactions computational analysis • co-operative purchase coalitions • agent based simulation • hierarchical coordination • Stackelberg games decision support • political decision support, structuring, learning, communication • policy decisions in the parliament • multiple criteria: environment, costs, risks… tariff design • consumer level analysis • consumption pattern analysis • consumer self-selection production planning and hedging • uncertainty in the production process • modelling of the forward curve dynamics • electricity porfolio selection selected publications Näsäkkälä E., Keppo J.: Electricity load pattern hedging with static forward strategies, MF special issue on Energy Pricing and Risk Management, 2005. Näsäkkälä E., Fleten S. E.: Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments, Manuscript, 2004. Murto, P.: Exit in duopoly under uncertainty, RAND J. of Economics, 2004. Murto, P., Näsäkkälä, E., and Keppo, J.: Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: a framework for numerical analysis, EJOR, 2004. R.P. Hämäläinen and J. Mäntysaari: Dynamic multi-objective heating optimization, EJOR, 2002. P-O. Pineau and R.P. Hämäläinen: A perspective on the restructuring of the Finnish electricity market, Energy Policy, 2000. Räsänen M., Ruusunen J. and Hämäläinen R.P.: Optimal tariff design under consumer self-selection, Energy Economics, 1997. J. Mäntysaari and R.P. Hämäläinen: Prototyping customized DSS with a spreadsheet program - the power agents system, J. of Decision Systems, 1997 R.P. Hämäläinen: Facts or values - how do parliamentarians and experts see nuclear power?, Energy Policy, 1991. R.P. Hämäläinen: Computer assisted energy policy analysis in the Parliament of Finland, Interfaces, 1988. emission trading • change to the production capacity with fewer emissions • in European Union the trading started in October 2003 • the trading affects the decision of all electricity producers