CS 5368: Artificial Intelligence Fall 2010

1. CS 5368: Artificial IntelligenceFall 2010 Lecture 17: Machine Learning II 11/23/2010 Mohan Sridharan Slides adapted from Dan Klein

2. Recap: General Naïve Bayes • A general naïve Bayesmodel: • Y: label to be predicted. • F1, …, Fn: features of each instance. Y F1 F2 Fn

3. Example Naïve Bayes Models • Bag-of-words for text: • One feature for every word position in the document. • All features share the same conditional distributions. • Maximum likelihood estimates: word frequencies by label. • Pixels for images: • One feature for every pixel, indicating whether it is on (black). • Each pixel has a different conditional distribution. • Maximum likelihood estimates: how often a pixel is on by label. Y Y W1 W2 Wn F0,0 F0,1 Fn,n

4. Real NB: Smoothing • Odds ratios without smoothing: south-west : inf nation : inf morally : inf nicely : inf extent : inf ... screens : inf minute : inf guaranteed : inf $205.00 : inf delivery : inf ...

5. Real NB: Smoothing • Odds ratios after smoothing: helvetica : 11.4 seems : 10.8 group : 10.2 ago : 8.4 areas : 8.3 ... verdana : 28.8 Credit : 28.4 ORDER : 27.2 <FONT> : 26.9 money : 26.5 ... Do these make more sense?

6. Feature Extractors • Features: anything you can compute about the input. • A feature extractor maps inputs to feature vectors: • Many classifiers take feature vectors as inputs. • Feature vectors usually very sparse, use sparse encodings (i.e. only represent non-zero keys). Dear Sir. First, I must solicit your confidence in this transaction, this is by virture of its nature as being utterly confidencial and top secret. … W=dear : 1 W=sir : 1 W=this : 2 ... W=wish : 0 ... MISSPELLED : 2 YOUR_NAME : 1 ALL_CAPS : 0 NUM_URLS : 0 ...

7. Generative vs. Discriminative • Generative classifiers: • E.g. naïve Bayes. • A causal model with evidence variables. • Query model for causes given evidence. • Discriminative classifiers: • No causal model, no Bayes rule, often no probabilities at all! • Try to predict the label Y directly from X. • Robust, accurate with varied features. • Loosely: mistake driven rather than model driven!

8. Some (Simplified) Biology • Very loose inspiration: human neurons 

9. Linear Classifiers • Inputs are feature values. • Each feature has a weight. • Sum is the activation: • If the activation is: • Positive, output +1. • Negative, output -1. w1  f1 w2 >0? f2 w3 f3

10. Example: Spam • Imagine 4 features (spam is “positive” class): • Free (number of occurrences of “free”). • Money (occurrences of “money”). • BIAS (intercept, always has value 1). BIAS : 1 free : 1 money : 1 ... BIAS : -3 free : 4 money : 2 ... “free money”

11. Binary Decision Rule • In the space of feature vectors: • Examples are points. • Any weight vector is a hyperplane. • One side corresponds to Y=+1. • Other corresponds to Y=-1. money 2 +1 = SPAM 1 BIAS : -3 free : 4 money : 2 ... free 0 -1 = HAM 0 1

12. Binary Perceptron Update • Start with zero weights. • For each training instance: • Classify with current weights: • If correct (i.e., y=y*), no change! • If wrong: adjust the weight vector by adding or subtracting the feature vector. Subtract if y* is -1.

13. Multiclass Decision Rule • If we have more than two classes: • Have a weight vector for each class: • Calculate an activation for each class: • Highest activation wins

14. Example BIAS : 1 win : 1 game : 0 vote : 1 the : 1 ... “win the vote” BIAS : -2 win : 4 game : 4 vote : 0 the : 0 ... BIAS : 1 win : 2 game : 0 vote : 4 the : 0 ... BIAS : 2 win : 0 game : 2 vote : 0 the : 0 ...

15. The Perceptron Update Rule • Start with zero weights. • Consider training instances one by one. • Classify with current weights: • If correct, no change! • If wrong: lower weight of wrong answer, raise weight of right answer.

16. Example “win the vote” “win the election” “win the game” BIAS : win : game : vote : the : ... BIAS : win : game : vote : the : ... BIAS : win : game : vote : the : ...

17. Examples: Perceptron • Separable case:

18. Mistake-Driven Classification Training Data • For Naïve Bayes: • Parameters from data statistics. • Parameters: causal interpretation. • Training: one pass through the data. • For the perceptron: • Parameters from reactions to mistakes. • Parameters: discriminative interpretation. • Training: go through the data until held-out accuracy maxes out. Held-Out Data Test Data

19. Properties of Perceptrons Separable • Separability: some parameters get the training set perfectly correct! • Convergence: if the training is separable, perceptron will eventually converge (binary case). • Mistake Bound: the maximum number of mistakes (binary case) related to the margin or degree of separability. Non-Separable

20. Examples: Perceptron • Non-Separable case:

21. Issues with Perceptrons • Overtraining: test / held-out accuracy usually rises, then falls! • Overtraining is not quite as bad as overfitting, but is similar. • Regularization: if the data is not separable, weights might thrash around. • Averaging weight vectors over time can help (averaged perceptron). • Mediocre generalization: finds a “barely” separating solution.

22. Fixing the Perceptron • Idea: adjust the weight update to mitigate these effects. • MIRA*: choose an update size that fixes the current mistake… • … but, minimizes the change to w. • The +1 helps to generalize. * Margin Infused Relaxed Algorithm

23. Minimum Correcting Update min not =0, or would not have made an error, so min will be where equality holds.

24. Maximum Step Size • In practice, it is also bad to make updates that are too large: • Example may be labeled incorrectly. • You may not have enough features. • Solution: cap the maximum possible value of  with some constant C. • Corresponds to an optimization that assumes non-separable data. • Usually converges faster than perceptron. • Usually better, especially on noisy data.

25. Linear Separators • Which of these linear separators is optimal?

26. Support Vector Machines • Maximizing the margin: good according to intuition, theory, practice. • Only support vectors matter; other training examples are ignorable . • Support vector machines (SVMs) find the separator with max margin. • SVMs are MIRA where you optimize over all examples at once. MIRA SVM

27. Classification: Comparison • Naïve Bayes: • Builds a model training data. • Gives prediction probabilities. • Strong assumptions about feature independence. • One pass through data (counting). • Perceptron / MIRA: • Makes less assumptions about data. • Mistake-driven learning. • Multiple passes through data (prediction) • Often more accurate. • What about Nearest Neighbors?

28. A Tale of Two Approaches • Nearest neighbor-like approaches: • Can use fancy similarity functions. • Do not actually get to do explicit learning. • Perceptron-like approaches: • Explicit training to reduce empirical error. • Cannot use fancy similarity, only linear. • Can we create other similarity measures?

29. Perceptron Weights • What is the final value of a weight wy of a perceptron? • Can it be any real vector? • No! It’s built by adding up inputs. • Can reconstruct weight vectors (the primal representation) from update counts (the dual representation):

30. Dual Perceptron • How to classify a new example x? • If someone tells us the value of K for each pair of examples, never need to build the weight vectors!

31. Dual Perceptron • Start with zero counts (alpha). • Pick up training instances one by one. • Try to classify xn, • If correct, no change! • If wrong: lower count of wrong class (for this instance), raise score of right class (for this instance).

32. Kernelized Perceptron • If we had a black box (kernel) which told us the dot product of two examples x and y: • Could work entirely with the dual representation  • No need to ever take dot products (“kernel trick”)  • Like nearest neighbor – work with black-box similarities. • Downside: slow if many examples get non-zero alpha 

33. Kernels: Who Cares? • So far: a very strange way of doing a very simple calculation! • “Kernel trick”: we can substitute any* similarity function in place of the dot product. • Lets us learn new kinds of hypothesis. * Fine print: if your kernel doesn’t satisfy certain technical requirements, lots of proofs break. E.g. convergence, mistake bounds. In practice, illegal kernels sometimes work (but not always).

34. Non-Linear Separators • Data that is linearly separable (with some noise) works out great: • But what are we going to do if the dataset is just too hard? • How about… mapping data to a higher-dimensional space? x 0 x 0 x2 x 0

35. Non-Linear Separators • General idea: the original feature space can always be mapped to some higher-dimensional feature space where the training set is separable: Φ: x→φ(x)

36. Why Kernels? • Can you not just add these features on your own (e.g. add all pairs of features instead of using the quadratic kernel)? • Yes, in principle, just compute them. No need to modify any algorithms. • But, number of features can get large (or infinite)! • Some kernels not as usefully thought of in their expanded representation, e.g. RBF or data-defined kernels. • Kernels let us compute with these features implicitly: • Example: implicit dot product in quadratic kernel takes much less space and time per dot product. • Of course, there is the cost for using the pure dual algorithms: you need to compute the similarity to every training datum.

37. Clustering • Clustering systems: • Unsupervised learning! • Detect patterns in unlabeled data • E.g. group emails or search results • E.g. find categories of customers • E.g. detect anomalous program executions • Useful when do not know what you are looking for. • Requires data, but no labels. • Often get gibberish 

38. Clustering • Basic idea: group together similar instances. • Example: 2D point patterns. • What could “similar” mean? • One option: small (squared) Euclidean distance.

39. K-Means • An iterative clustering algorithm: • Pick K random points as cluster centers (means). • Alternate: • Assign data instances to closest mean. • Assign each mean to the average of its assigned points. • Stop when no point-assignments change.

40. K-Means Example

41. K-Means as Optimization • Consider the total distance to the means: • Each iteration reduces phi. • Two stages each iteration: • Update assignments: fix means c, change assignments a. • Update means: fix assignments a, change means c. means points assignments

42. Phase I: Update Assignments • For each point, re-assign to closest mean: • Can only decrease total distance phi!

43. Phase II: Update Means • Move each mean to the average of its assigned points: • Also can only decrease total distance… (Why?) • Fun fact: the point y with minimum squared Euclidean distance to a set of points {x} is their mean.

44. Initialization • K-means is non-deterministic! • Requires initial means. • It does matter what you pick! • What can go wrong? • Various schemes for preventing this kind of thing: variance-based split / merge, initialization heuristics.

45. K-Means Questions • Will K-means converge? • To a global optimum? • Will it always find the true patterns in the data? • If the patterns are very very clear? • Will it find something interesting? • Do people ever use it? • How many clusters to pick?

46. Agglomerative Clustering • Agglomerative clustering: • First merge very similar instances. • Incrementally build larger clusters out of smaller clusters. • Algorithm: • Maintain a set of clusters. • Initially, each instance in its own cluster. • Repeat: • Pick the two closest clusters. • Merge them into a new cluster. • Stop when there’s only one cluster left. • Produces not one clustering, but a family of clusterings represented by a dendrogram.

47. Agglomerative Clustering • How should we define “closest” for clusters with multiple elements? • Many options: • Closest pair (single-link clustering). • Farthest pair (complete-link clustering). • Average of all pairs. • Ward’s method (min variance, like k-means). • Different choices create different clustering behaviors.

48. Clustering Application Top-level categories: supervised classification Story groupings: unsupervised clustering

49. More Information? • Machine Learning textbooks: • Christopher Bishop (PRML). • Tom Mitchell (ML). • Slides from ML course (available online).