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Answers to Practice Exam #3

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  1. Answers to Practice Exam #3 • Exam May 7 4:00-5:45PM since BE101 has 6:00PM class • C-4 due May 9 • Set 9 due May 9

  2. 1.PERT

  3. ANSWER T0 (a)=MAX EF=24

  4. ANSWER(b):A-C-E-F

  5. 1C: • CRITICAL PATH VARIANCE= SUM OF VARIANCES ON CP= VARIANCES OF A,C,E,F = 4+.6+.5+.1=5.2 =5.2 • STANDARD DEVIATION = SQUARE ROOT OF 5.2 = 2.28

  6. NORMAL TABLE • Z=(27-24)/2.28 = 1.32 • ROW 1.3 • COL 0.02 = .02 • CUMULATIVE PROB = .5 + .4066 = .9066 FROM TAYLOR, P 738

  7. 2. SHORTEST ROUTE

  8. A-C ADDED

  9. A-D ADDED

  10. D-E ADDED

  11. E-F ADDED

  12. EXAM FORMAT

  13. 3. BAYES RULE • P(PROFIT)=.52 • P(S|PROFIT)=.85 • P(S|NOT PROFIT) = .25 • S= SUCCESSFUL • P(UNPROFITABLE)=1-P(PROFIT)= 1-.52=.48

  14. P(PROFIT|S) • .85*.52 = .79 .85*.52+ .25*.48