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Answers to Practice Exam #3. Exam May 7 4:00-5:45PM since BE101 has 6:00PM class C-4 due May 9 Set 9 due May 9. 1.PERT. ANSWER T0 (a)=MAX EF=24. ANSWER(b):A-C-E-F. 1C:.

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answers to practice exam 3
Answers to Practice Exam #3
  • Exam May 7 4:00-5:45PM since BE101 has 6:00PM class
  • C-4 due May 9
  • Set 9 due May 9
slide5
1C:
  • CRITICAL PATH VARIANCE= SUM OF VARIANCES ON CP= VARIANCES OF A,C,E,F = 4+.6+.5+.1=5.2 =5.2
  • STANDARD DEVIATION = SQUARE ROOT OF 5.2 = 2.28
normal table
NORMAL TABLE
  • Z=(27-24)/2.28 = 1.32
  • ROW 1.3
  • COL 0.02 = .02
  • CUMULATIVE PROB = .5 + .4066 = .9066 FROM TAYLOR, P 738
3 bayes rule
3. BAYES RULE
  • P(PROFIT)=.52
  • P(S|PROFIT)=.85
  • P(S|NOT PROFIT) = .25
  • S= SUCCESSFUL
  • P(UNPROFITABLE)=1-P(PROFIT)= 1-.52=.48
p profit s
P(PROFIT|S)
  • .85*.52 = .79 .85*.52+ .25*.48