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Policy Roundtable 3: Risk

Policy Roundtable 3: Risk. Paramita Sinha (RTI International) Prepared for Estimating the Benefits of Homeland Security Policies September 23 & 24, 2010 Funded by CREATE@USC. Examples: RIAs. Final rule for WHTI Implemented in the Land Environment

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Policy Roundtable 3: Risk

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  1. Policy Roundtable 3: Risk Paramita Sinha (RTI International) Prepared for Estimating the Benefits of Homeland Security Policies September 23 & 24, 2010 Funded by CREATE@USC

  2. Examples: RIAs • Final rule for WHTI Implemented in the Land Environment • WHTI Implemented in the Sea Environment and • Proposed Air/Sea Biometric Exit Project These are rules to help establish the identity of individuals entering the country more accurately and efficiently – these contribute to lower risks to security

  3. Benefits Section RIAs identifies following difficulties: • How to estimate baseline security risks • How to measure risk reductions • Hard to find estimates of WTP to reduce terrorist risk

  4. Moving forward, as we think through some of these problems, are there approaches that we can come up with? • What would be reasonable first steps? • Can we learn something by looking at the literature? • Can we learn something by looking at the RIAs? • What can we do bring them closer?

  5. Some thoughts….. • Maybe we can start by systematically categorizing (or developing appropriate ranges) of • baseline risks • reduction in risks • trying to apply what is the most appropriate estimate of WTP measures to the context in question • Maybe possible to do this for some rules? • Maybe we do not need baseline risk in some cases if you assume that the value is constant over a certain range?

  6. For example, can we do a literature search and come up with studies fitting into the appropriate cells?

  7. Some ways to think about risk/architecture European perspective…. • Tolerability of Risk framework • Multi Criteria Decision Analysis EPA….. • Risk Assessment/Risk Management -These may not necessarily the most relevant framework - Decide where you want to be in the future and move towards that

  8. Some interesting discussions we had on risk…. • Think about interactions between different DHS policies to reduce “composite” risk • Endogenous risks – game theoretic approach (use of best response functions) as a framework to think about this? • How are people thinking about risks – Subjective vs. objective risks

  9. Recent economics literature deals with different ways to think about valuing risk • labels, perceptions and characteristics associated with risks that seem to matter (e.g. Alberini and Scasny) • does cause of death matter (e.g. Taylor and Kochi) • crime literature • risk perception literature gives some insights on risks with “dread” associated with them

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