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MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and Highlights. Bill Mahoney National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Boulder, CO 20 October 2005. Photo by Dave Parsons. Overview. Overall System Enhancements Colorado Routes System Configuration New Products

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mdss lab prototype program update and highlights

MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and Highlights

Bill Mahoney

National Center For Atmospheric Research

(NCAR)

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting

Boulder, CO

20 October 2005

Photo by Dave Parsons

overview
Overview
  • Overall System Enhancements
  • Colorado Routes
  • System Configuration
  • New Products
  • Challenges
  • Release-4.0
system enhancements for field demo
System Enhancements for Field Demo
  • Added Bridge Frost Potential Product
    • Based on Iowa State University Model (Tina Greenfield)
  • Added snow-water ratio algorithm
  • Added CDOT & E-470 ESS data (via MADIS)
  • Refined Rules of Practice for E-470 and CDOT
  • Refined insolation data sources (model blend)
slide4

Vail Pass

South Denver

West Denver

Colorado Routes

300 forecast site

slide5

Data Fusion - Road Weather Forecast System

Forecast Module A

Forecast

Integrator

Data

Ingest

Forecast Module B

Forecast Module C

Post

Processor

Forecast Module D

.

.

.

National Weather Service Data

Forecast

Product

Eta Model AVN MOS

GFS Model SYNOP

METARS

Forecast Module N

DICastTM

MDSS Configuration – Colorado

Supplemental Weather Models

Ensemble System

ModelInitialization

MM5 NAM (Eta)

WRF NAM (Eta)

Multiple

Members

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

DOT Data

RWIS

Road Condition & Treatment Module

- Road Temperature Prediction Model

- Chemical Concentration Algorithms

- Rules of Practice for Anti- and Deicing

Plow route specific treatment recommendations

supplemental weather forecast model domain
Supplemental Weather Forecast Model Domain

4 April 2005 - 24 hr forecast valid 3 pm

5 April 2005.

fsl model system configuration

WRF output 9 November 2004

FSL Model System Configuration

MM5 and WRF Models

Time Lagged Ensemble Used

MM5 – Latest

MM5 – Run from 1 hour previous

MM5 – Run from 2 hours previous

WRF – Latest

WRF – Run from 1 hour previous

WRF – Run from 2 hours previous

mdss colorado challenges
MDSS Colorado Challenges
  • Intense direct solar radiation effects
  • Diurnal temperature variations
  • Strong nocturnal inversions
  • Shallow cold fronts
  • Large spread in model precipitation forecasts
  • Rain-to-Snow transition
strong diurnal temperature swings
Strong Diurnal Temperature Swings

43oF

at

7 AM

83oF

at

11 AM

Challenge for air and pavement prediction

strong nocturnal inversions
Strong Nocturnal Inversions

Surface

Temperature = 45oF

Temperature

at 1000 ft AGL = 60oF

Impacts:

Road frost

Fog

Road Temperatures

All models have great difficulty with shallow layers!

early morning fog case 14 november 2004
Early Morning Fog Case14 November 2004

Clear skies in WRF model

Low clouds and fog

observed

shallow upslope case
Shallow Upslope Case

Model estimation of clouds

Shallow upslope clouds

mountain wave clouds
Mountain Wave Clouds

WRF was able to predict some wave clouds, which is important for Front Range

Wave Clouds

Satellite Image

WRF Model

resolving complex terrain
Resolving Complex Terrain

Weather models smooth out terrain details resulting in poor forecasts at peaks and valleys.

resolving complex terrain1

WRF Model Terrain 12-km Grid

Black Hills

Teton

Big Horns

San Juan

Resolving Complex Terrain

Standard NWS models cannot resolve details of the rugged terrain.

T254

~30 mile grid resolution

T170

~60 mile grid resolution

WRF Terrain

~6 mile grid

Central Rockies

mdss release 4 0

Release-4:

Fall 2005

MDSS Release-4.0

Expected to be last major Lab MDSS

Release!

Release available mid fall 2005

  • Major refinements to Rules Practice
  • Minor refinements to road temperature model (SNTHERM-RT)
  • Route by route configuration
  • Add reasons for recommended treatment
  • Add additional chemical equations (Caliber, IceBan)
  • Add blowing snow effect on treatments
  • Refine black ice (refreeze) treatment logic
  • Add ability to mix chemical types (user defined treatments)
  • Refine display products as necessary