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Japan since 1990. What we know Recession since 1990 Challenges to 1955 System LDP in flux External challenges (other parties) Collapse of the left A new center-right 1 and ½ party system Internal challenges (Koizumi) 2009: Two Party System?. Evolution of Japanese Parties. Liberal

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japan since 1990
Japan since 1990

What we know

  • Recession since 1990
  • Challenges to 1955 System
    • LDP in flux
    • External challenges (other parties)
    • Collapse of the left
    • A new center-right 1 and ½ party system
    • Internal challenges (Koizumi)
  • 2009: Two Party System?
evolution of japanese parties
Evolution of Japanese Parties
  • Liberal
  • Democratic LDP LDPLDPLDP LDP LDP
  • Party (LDP) (Spring 1998;
  • Breakaway LDP alone)
  • Factions (1992-93)
  • Sakigake
  • Japan New Party
  • Shinseito Sakigake Sakigake Sakigake
  • (dissolved 2004)
  • Social
  • Democratic
  • Party of Japan SDPJ SDPJ SDPJ SDP SDP
  • (SDPJ)
  • Democratic Party
  • Komeito of Japan (DPJ) DPJ DPJ
  • (Clean Government (4/98) (2009)
  • Party)
  • "NOT-LDP" New Frontier coalition Party (NFP) Peace and Reform
  • Democratic Network
  • Socialist
  • Party (DSP) Komeito New Komeito NKP NKP

New Peace Party

  • United Social Liberal League
  • Democratic Party (LDP ally 99-00; merges with DPJ)
  • (USDP) New Conservative (LDP ally) (merges with LDP 2003)
  • Japan
  • Communist Party JCP JCP JCP JCP JCP
  • (JCP)
  • 1990 7/18/93 June 1994 Dec. 1994 Fall 1996 1997-1998 1999-2009 2009
  • *Ruling party or coalition at the time in bold
ldp scandals
PMs in the 1990s

Takeshita Noboru Uno Sosuke Kaifu Toshiki Miyazawa Kiichi

Nov. 1987–June 1989June–Aug. 19898/89–11/91 11/91–8/93

LDP Scandals
political debates
Open up the economy

From nationalist to liberal

Lifestyle Superpower

Japan as a “normal’ nation

Saying “no” to the US

End of Yoshida Doctrine

Electoral reform

Political Debates
conclusions
Conclusions?
  • Not-LDP coalition
  • Old parties lose
  • Left loses
  • LDP factional split
slide7
PMs in the 1990s

Hosokawa Morihiro Hata Tsutomu Murayama Tomiichi Hashimoto Ryutaro

New Party New Party SDP (LDP coalition) LDP

8/1993 – 4/1994 4/1994 – 6/1994 6/1994 – 1/19961/96-7/98

But…
big changes in 1990s
Big Changes in 1990s?
  • Electoral Reform in Lower House 1996
    • 300 SMD
    • 180 Proportional representation
  • LDP Party Rules reform
  • Administrative Reforms (passed 1998; in force 2001)
new 1 and party system
(seats in Lower House) 1996 2000 2003

New Frontier Party 156 0 0

Democratic Party of Japan 52 127 178

Kan Naoto Hatoyama Yukio

New 1 and ½ Party System?
ldp challenged from within
LDP Challenged from Within

April 2001 LDP Party Rules Changes have an impact

Koizumi Junichiro (PM 2001-2006)

september 2005 election
September 2005 Election

Koizumi

vs.

Iron Triangle/LDP Anti-Reform factions

Postal reform

  • Policy
  • Public vs. Iron Triangle
  • Institutional Change
  • LDP Future
  • Koizumi’s legacy
koizumi wins
Koizumi Wins
  • LDP 212 to 296 seats
  • DPJ 177-113 seats
  • Postal reform Bill passes October 2005
slide13
Koizumi retires, September 2006

PMs since the 1990s

Abe Shinzo Fukuda Yasuo Aso Taro

9/06-9/07 9/07-9/08 9/08-9/09

But…
2009 election
2005 2009

LDP 296 119

DPJ 113 308

New PM

Hatoyama Yukio

(DPJ)

2009 Election
dpj victory
DPJ Victory

Why did DPJ win?

  • LDP weakness
  • Recession
  • “Flexicons”
dpj in power
DPJ in Power?
  • Rolling back market reforms?
  • Alliance with the US?
  • Worries about Japanese Identity?
  • Consumers first, producers second?
  • Breaking the Iron Triangle?
  • Real power for the government?
slide18

For DPJ: Business as Usual

Hatoyama Yukio Kan Naoto Noda Yoshihiko

9/16/09—6/8/10 6/8/10—9/2/11 9/2/11—12/26/12

december 2012 election
December 2012 Election

LDP DPJ Restoration

Pre-2009 303 110 0

Post-2009 119 308 0

Dec. 2012 294 56 54

New PM Restoration Party Leader

Abe Shinzo Ishihara Shintaro

questions
Questions
  • Is the 1955 System dead?
  • Does Japan have a Two-Party System?
  • When in doubt, back to the LDP?
    • Stimulus package 2013