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Charts for Inflation report 1/2004

Charts for Inflation report 1/2004. Summary. Chart 1 Projections for CPI-ATE 1) and the output gap 2) . Per cent. CPI-ATE. Output gap. 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excl. energy products

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Charts for Inflation report 1/2004

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  1. Charts for Inflation report 1/2004

  2. Summary

  3. Chart 1 Projections for CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2).Per cent CPI-ATE Output gap 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excl. energy products 2)The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output. See box in IR 1/03 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  4. Chart 2 CPI-ATE.Total and by supplier sector. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 2001 - Dec 2006 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  5. Chapter 1

  6. 1.1 The economic situation

  7. Chart 1.1 The output gap.Percentage deviation from trend mainland GDP. Annual figures. 1980-20031) 1)GDP figures for 2003 are based on projections. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  8. Chart 1.2 Real interest rate after tax.1) Quarterly figures. 1985 Q1 - 2004 Q12). 3-month rate 5-year rate 1) 3-month money market rates deflated by the CPI excluding energy products up to 1995, Norges Bank`s estimates for the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products from June 1995 to July 2000, then the CPI-ATE. The same deflator is used for 5-year government bond yields, but from 2001 Q2 the inflation target of 2.5 per cent is used 2) The figure for 2004 Q1 is preliminary Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  9. Chart 1.3 Employed persons according to LFS.In millions. Monthly figures. Jan 1998 – Dec 2003. Seasonally adjusted. Source: Statistics Norway

  10. Chart 1.4 Relative labour costs¹): Norway and trading partners.Deviation from average 1970 -2003.Per cent. Annual figures. 1970 -20042) 2004 Local currency Common currency 1)Hourly labour costs in manufacturing 2) Projections for wage growth in 2004.The projection for relative labour costs in common currency in 2004 is based on the assumption for the krone exchange rate in this report (TWI). Sources: TRCIS, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

  11. 1.2 Consumer price inflation

  12. Chart 1.5 CPI-ATE.Total1) and by supplier sector2).12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 1999 - Jan 2004 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to and including July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway 2) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  13. Chart 1.6 Prices for some imported consumer goods.1) 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 2001 - Jan 2004 Cars (9) Audiovisual equipment (3) Clothing and footwear (7) 1)CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.Percentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  14. Chart 1.7 CPI-ATE.Domestically produced goods1).12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 1999 – Jan 2004 Goods produced in Norway which are influenced to only a limited extent by global market prices Goods produced in Norway which are influenced by global market prices 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Chart 1.8 Consumer prices.Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 1999 - Jan 2004. CPI CPI-ATE1) 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to and including July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Chart 1.9 Electricity prices. Index. 1 Jan 1998=100. Daily figures. 1 Jan 2001 – 4 Mar 2004. Spot price including taxes and grid rental Electricity in the CPI Sources: Statistics Norway, Nordpool, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and Norges Bank

  17. 1.3 Financial markets

  18. Chart 1.10.Interest rate expectations.Actual developments and expected key rate1) at 4 March 2004. Daily figures UK Norway Euro area US 1)Based on interest rates on FRA and futures contracts adjusted for the estimated difference between 3-month money market rates and the key rate. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank

  19. Chart 1.11 Yield on government bonds with 10 year residual maturity. Daily figures. 1 Jan 2003 - 4 Mar 2004. Norway Germany US Source: Bloomberg

  20. Chart 1.12 International equity indices.1 Jan 2003 = 100Daily figures. 1 Jan 2003 – 4 Mar 2004. Norway OBX Germany DAX US S&P 500 Japan NIKKEI Source: Bloomberg

  21. Chart 1.13.Change in 3-month money market rates and effective exchange rates1). 23 Oct 2003 – 4 Mar 2004. nzd aud gbp eur Exchange rate change. Per cent usd sek chf cad jpy nok Interest rate change. Basis points 1)A positive figure denotes a stronger exchange rate Sources: Bank of England and Bloomberg

  22. Chart 1.14. Individual exchange rate movements.1) Effective rates. Index. 1 Jan 2002=100. Daily figures.Jan 2002 – 4 Mar 2004. NZD AUD EUR NOK GBP USD 1)A rising curve denotes a stronger exchange rate Source: Bank of England

  23. Chart 1.15. Exchange rate for NOK against EUR, USD and SEK.1) Daily figures.1 Jan 2002 – 4 Mar 2004. NOK/USD (left-hand scale) NOK/EUR (left-hand scale) NOK per 100 SEK (right-hand scale) 1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate Source: Bloomberg

  24. 1.4 Monetary Policy

  25. Chart 1.16 Projections for CPI-ATE and the output gap1) in IR 3/03.Per cent CPI-ATE Output gap 1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output.See box in IR 1/03 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  26. Chart 1.17 CPI.Moving 10-year average (7 years back, current year and 2 years ahead).Per cent. CPI1) Inflation target 1) The band around the CPI is the variation in the period, measured by +/- one standard deviation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  27. Chart 1.18 Strategy intervals for the sight deposit rate and actual developments. Nov. 2002 - Mar 2004. Interval in Strategy Document 3/02 Interval in Strategy Document 1/03 Sight deposit rate Interval in Strategy Document 2/03 Interval in Strategy Document 3/03 Source: Norges Bank

  28. Chart 1.19 Interest rate expectations in the USActual developments and expected key rate1).Daily figures Key rate 16 Dec 03 23 Oct 03 19 Jan 04 1) Based on Fed Funds futures and Eurodollar futures adjusted for the estimated spread between the 3-month Libor and Fed Funds rates Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank

  29. Chart 1.20 Interest rate expectations in the euro area.Actual developments and expected key rate1).Daily figures Key rate 16 Dec 03 23 Oct 03 20 Jan 04 1) Based on Euribor futures adjusted for the estimated spread between the 3-month Euribor and Refi rates Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank

  30. Chart 1.21 Import-weighted krone exchange rate1), sight deposit rate and 3-month interest rate differential against trading partners. Daily figures.1 Jan 2002 – 4 Mar 2004 I-44 (left-hand scale) Sight deposit rate (right-hand scale) Interest rate differential3-month (right-hand scale) 1)A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

  31. Chapter 2

  32. Chart 2.1 GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's trading partners combined. Quarterly growth. Per cent. 01 Q1 - 04 Q3.Seasonally adjusted US Euro area Trading partners Japan Sources: EcoWin/US Department of Commerce, ESRI (JP) EURO-OP/Eurostat and Norges Bank

  33. Chart 2.2 Employment. 12-month growth. Per cent. Jan 1997 - Jan 2004. US Sweden UK Germany Sources: EcoWin, Bureau of Labor Statistics (US), Federal Statistical Office (DE), Office of National Statistics (UK) and SCB (SE)

  34. Chart 2.3 Structural budget balance.Per cent of GDP. Annual figures. 1995 - 20051). US Euro area Japan 1)Projections for period 2003-2005 Source: OECD

  35. Chart 2.4 Annual wage growth1).Per cent. 1995 – 20052). US Euro area Japan 1)Wage growth excluding public sector 2)Projections for period 2003-2005 Source: OECD

  36. Chart 2.5 12-month rise in CPI. Per cent.Jan2002 - Feb 2004 Ireland Portugal Netherlands Germany Sources: EcoWin, EUR-OP/Eurostat, Federal Statistical Office (DE), Central Statistics Office (IRL) and Central Bureau of Statistics (NL)

  37. Chart 2.6 Prices for aluminium, nickel and copper in USD. Index. 2001=100.Daily prices. 1 Jan 2001 – 4 Mar 2004 Nickel Copper Aluminium Sources: London Metal Exchange and EcoWin

  38. Chart 2.7 GDP in China, Japan and Malaysia.Change on same quarter previous year. Per cent. 2001 Q1 - 2004 Q3 China Malaysia Japan Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Bureau of Statistics (CH) og Central Bank of Malaysia

  39. Chart 2.8 Oil price measured in USD and EUR per barrel.14-day moving average. Daily prices.18 Jan 2002 – 4 Mar 2004 Dollar per barrel Euro per barrel Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

  40. Chart 2.9 Oil price1) in USD per barrel.Daily figures.1 Jan 2001 – 4 Mar 2004.Futures prices from 4 Mar 2004. Oil price Futures prices 4 Mar 04 1) Brent Blend Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank

  41. Chart 2.10 Consumer price inflation in the US, the euro area, Japan and among Norway's trading partners. Annual rise. 1995 - 20061) Euro area US Trading partners Japan 1) Projections for period 2004-2006 Sources: OECD, EU Commission and Norges Bank

  42. Chapter 3

  43. Chart 3.1 Assumption for the money market rate.Forward rate1)2).Per cent 3-month money market rate Forward rate 4 March 1)3-month money market rates up to February 2004.3-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 4 March. 2)The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate Source: Norges Bank

  44. Chart 3.2 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44).Forward rates.Index1) Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 Forward rate 4 March 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

  45. Chart 3.3 Sight deposit rate, 5-year swap rate and implied one-year swap rate 4 years ahead1).Weekly figures. 7 Jan 2002 - 4 Mar 2004. Implied 1-year rate 4 years ahead 5-year rate Sight deposit rate 1)Implied 1-year rate 4 years ahead is estimated using 4- and 5-year swap rates.Since 2002, the 5-year swap rate has been ½ percentage point higher than government bond yields on average. Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin

  46. Chart 3.4 Real growth in household disposable income and consumption. Annual figures. Per cent. 1990 - 2006. Real income growth Real growth in consumption Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  47. Chart 3.5 Consumer confidence indicator.1) 1999Q1 - 2004 Q1.Unadjusted figures. Personal financial situation Total Country's economic situation 1)Provides an indication of the share with a positive assessment of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative assessment. Source: TNS Gallup

  48. Chart 3.6 Vacant office premises in Oslo, Asker and Bærum.Share of total real estate stock. 1991-20041) 1) As at February Source: Eiendomsspar AS

  49. Chart 3.7 Productivity growth and real growth in value added in commercial services.2-year moving average. Annual figures. Per cent. 1972-2003. Productivity (right-h. scale) Output (left-hand scale) -8,7 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  50. Chart 3.8 Gross investment as a share of value added. Annual figures. 1985 -2006. Services and distributive trades Average last 10 years Manufacturing and construction Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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